Beware the Market's 'Expectations Bubble'

Stansberry Investor Hour

6:47

Was she the victim of foul play, an accident, or did she choose to disappear? In this episode of The Vanished, we retrace Diana’s last known movements, strange witness accounts, and the lingering mystery that has never been solved or.. was never meant to be solved.

рік тому 57:57

MP3•Головна епізоду

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott back to the show. Bob is the co-founder, chief investment officer, and CEO of Unlimited. The investment firm uses machine learning to replicate the index returns of hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity. Bob explores a wide range of topics in the podcast, from counteracting inflation with certain investments to the worsening future of globalization.

Bob kicks off the show by talking about the importance of holding yourself accountable with investing and about bonds in relation to the Federal Reserve's next moves. Many investors are expecting an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, but as Bob points out, the Fed may not live up to those expectations. He also discusses the flaws of the 60/40 portfolio in today's market, why you should hold gold as part of your portfolio, and two primary factors that could contribute to a long-term inflationary environment. (1:02)

Next, Bob explores ways to properly balance your portfolio to preserve wealth and minimize volatility. This leads to a conversation about Treasury inflation-protected securities. Bob describes why they're a better investment today than they were a few years ago and what gives them an edge over nominal bonds. After, he discusses the supply-and-demand imbalance in natural resources, oil's supply sensitivity versus precious metals, and the green-energy movement. (20:57)

Finally, Bob makes his case for investing in natural resource companies and warns listeners about roll costs when trading in the futures market. He then talks from a macro perspective about productivity in relation to AI. As he explains, AI has not yet led to large productivity advances like we saw with the advent of the personal computer. (37:58)

321 епізодів

Beware the Market's 'Expectations Bubble'

Stansberry Investor Hour

64 subscribers

published рік тому

Поширити

MP3•Головна епізоду

321 епізодів

Усі епізоди

1
China's Future Looks Shaky – From Tariffs to a Potential Debt Crisis 1:08:06

6 днів тому1:08:06

1:08:06

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Charlene Chu to the show. Charlene is the China and India macrofinancial senior analyst at the independent global research firm Autonomous Research. Dubbed the "rock star" of Chinese debt analysis, she joins the podcast to talk all about China and India's current economic happenings. Charlene kicks off the show by explaining her macroeconomic background and experience studying China's economy. She discusses whether China is still worth investing in, which specific area of the Chinese market looks most promising, and what's going on right now in China's property sector. Charlene also goes in depth on President Donald Trump's tariffs that will impact China and what the administration is potentially hoping to gain in negotiations. (1:41) Next, Charlene explores India's weaknesses versus China in becoming a global manufacturing hub – this includes its bureaucracy, onerous labor laws, and lack of infrastructure. She says that India is currently where China was in the 1990s, and the country will require much more development and investment to catch up. Charlene then talks about the good and bad economic effects of China's communist government, China's looming debt crisis, and how the average Chinese consumer differs from an American one. (19:57) Finally, Charlene examines China's demographics and explains why she believes the country's population will fall 60% to 70% by the year 2100. However, despite birth rates dropping, AI and technology may be able to make up for the declining number of humans in manufacturing roles and fill those gaps for several decades. And Charlene closes the conversation by urging U.S. investors not to worry too much about the Trump tariffs just yet, as there may be a method to the madness. (41:55)…

1
Now Is a Great Time to Invest in Silver 1:07:38

13 днів тому1:07:38

1:07:38

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Benoit La Salle to the show. Benoit is the president and CEO of Aya Gold & Silver (AYA.TO). He has more than 25 years of experience developing and operating responsible mining companies in West Africa. Benoit kicks things off by describing Aya's first-mover advantage in Morocco, why the country is destined to become a top mining jurisdiction, and how mining in Saudi Arabia differs from Morocco. He also explains why he's so excited about silver today. While the metal is in high demand as an industrial asset (such as for making solar panels and AI chips), it's not yet fully appreciated as a financial asset. But Benoit believes a shift is inevitable – and already underway – which will cause silver's price to soar. (1:47) Next, Benoit delves into the specifics of Aya's mines in Morocco, including those that aren't yet in production. He shares that Aya is spinning off its Amizmiz Gold Project to a new gold-mining company called Mx2, of which Aya owns 42%. Mx2 is set to go public later this year. Benoit also covers all the advantages of Morocco's low cost of drilling and exploration, the other industry that's booming in Morocco, and why Morocco has such cheap energy. (16:49) Finally, Benoit explains how he first got involved in mining after an encounter with the president of Burkina Faso, why the upside potential in Aya's stock price is still fantastic, and how momentum in silver investing has temporarily slowed since President Donald Trump took office. Further, he breaks down Aya's balance sheet and makes his macroeconomic case for precious metals. (36:10)…

1
How to Spot Rare Quality Businesses Among All the Losers 1:04:24

19 днів тому1:04:24

1:04:24

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Pieter Slegers to the show. Pieter is the founder of Compounding Quality, an investment newsletter that boasts more than 440,000 subscribers. Pieter kicks things off by sharing how he got his start in asset management, why he began investing in U.S. stocks, and the difference between value investing and quality investing. This leads to a discussion about Warren Buffett's impressive track record and one particular software company that Pieter likes today. He breaks down several criteria he uses when looking for investment opportunities – including founder-led businesses, long-tenured CEOs, and wide moats – and how exactly he narrows down his list. (1:40) Next, Pieter talks about the evolution of his successful X account that he began anonymously but eventually put his face on after it gained a lot of attention. As Pieter emphasizes, if you're taking investment advice from someone, that person should be invested alongside you and have skin in the game. For that reason, Pieter is looking to launch an investment fund later this year. Pieter then lists off a few companies he likes today and discusses the importance of investing in growing end markets. (20:30) Finally, Pieter gives his thoughts on the balancing act between paying high valuations for good companies versus missing an opportunity to own a great business. As Pieter details, it's all about an investor's individual risk tolerance and whichever strategy works best for them. Pieter also covers the flaws in discounted cash flow ("DCF") models, two companies that are overpriced today based on reverse DCF, and the three valuation methods he personally uses. (37:47)…

1
Inflation and Debt Are Looming Over the U.S. Economy 1:03:12

27 днів тому1:03:12

1:03:12

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Frank Trotter to the show. Frank is the president of Battle Bank, which is looking to revolutionize the digital-banking industry. Frank kicks off the show by sharing how he got his start in banking and how interest rates have changed over the decades due to various crises and bear markets. That leads to a discussion about the U.S.'s 10-year Treasury yield and why it has soared since the Federal Reserve cut rates. Frank also dives into EverBank, the direct-to-consumer online bank he co- founded in 1998 that amassed $28 billion in total assets. (1:40) Next, Frank explains what the current regulatory environment is like and how EverBank survived the dot-com bust. He then goes in depth on Battle Bank, which is focusing on the national direct-to-consumer branchless market. Frank covers Battle Bank's conservative strategy for lending money, whether environmentalism and politics have had any impact on lending to natural resource companies, and the specific advantages Battle Bank has over larger banks. (19:14) Finally, Frank talks about crypto acceptance at Battle Bank, "eCash" being ahead of its time in the 1990s, and the larger limitations of bitcoin that will impede it from becoming a reserve currency. He also gives his thoughts on Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency and its lofty goal of cutting $2 trillion in federal spending. And he closes the episode out by urging listeners to think about the future and ask themselves some tough questions. (37:25)…

1
The Boring Asset That Outperforms Most Stocks 1:03:37

рік тому1:03:37

1:03:37

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Hendrik Bessembinder to the show. Hendrik is a business professor at Arizona State University. With more than 40 years of teaching experience and 25 years of consulting experience, he joins the show to impart some of what he has discovered over his decades of work. Hendrik kicks things off by introducing himself and sharing how he got involved in teaching. After that, he talks about his breakthrough research studying the performance of stocks versus Treasury bills, why investing over a long time horizon is crucial, and the importance of finding a competitive advantage in the markets. Hendrik then compares stock picking with professional athletics, as both are rare skills that only small portions of the population excel at. (1:47) Next, Hendrik reveals that he's skeptical of any system that alleges it can make you wealthy, because the markets are competitive and constantly evolving. He says it all comes down to probabilities – and trying to gain an advantage that will nudge those probabilities in your favor. Hendrik also explains why he believes now is "the best trading environment ever" for retail investors in terms of cost and reliability. And he gives his thoughts on passive investing, the Magnificent Seven stocks, and diversification. (22:44) Finally, Hendrik discusses which assets he personally has in his portfolio, his concerns about inflation, the benefits of Treasury inflation-protected securities ("TIPS"), and the downfall of meme stocks. Plus, he responds to popular criticism about the value of a Master of Business Administration degree. (40:51)…

1
How to Make Money on Spinoffs and Insider Buying 1:01:13

рік тому1:01:13

1:01:13

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Jim Osman back to the show. Jim is the founder and chief vision officer of consulting group The Edge – which helps its clients and investors unlock hidden corporate value from "global special situations." Jim kicks off the show by detailing his new book that's coming out next month. It's targeted at individual investors, giving them more tools to succeed against Wall Street. Jim also discusses the importance of being yourself on social media, staying objective when it comes to investing, and how he finds special situations to profit from – mainly, spinoffs and insider buying. He explains how everyday investors can gain both an analytical edge and a behavioral edge over the markets. But as he warns, gaining such an edge involves doing your own hard work. (1:47) Next, Jim covers what's going on in the markets right now. He says there are a lot of spinoffs happening, but he has found that in the past year, the parent company has provided the best value. Further, he shares how he identifies the best spinoffs, how the future factors into his investment decisions, and why he believes value investing is dead. Jim then names two companies undergoing a spinoff that he finds attractive today, and one that he's keeping on his radar. (19:54) Finally, Jim discusses a recent Forbes piece he penned about Boeing's current problems. The company is hemorrhaging money and doesn't have a visionary leader to right the ship, but spinoffs could be the solution. Jim says Boeing is "really going to have to do something." After, he circles back to – and goes further in depth on – insider buying. And he shares his thoughts on initial public offerings and special purpose acquisition companies. (36:19)…

1
Bitcoin Is Headed for a Bubble This Year 1:04:04

рік тому1:04:04

1:04:04

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Eric Wade back to the show. Eric is the editor of Crypto Capital and Stansberry Innovations Report here at Stansberry Research. He returns to the podcast to talk all about crypto – from the bitcoin bubble he expects to happen this year to two free crypto recommendations. Eric kicks off the show by explaining the four-year bitcoin cycle. He breaks down how bitcoin halvings fit into it and its four one-year parts – crash, accumulation, growth, and bubble. He also covers how this cycle has played out in the past, optimism fueled by Donald Trump's presidential win, the possibility of a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, tailwinds for further crypto adoption, and several indicators to help you spot the top of the next bitcoin bubble. However, he warns listeners to temper their expectations for gains this year. (1:46) Next, Eric discusses the exciting world of "altcoins," i.e., cryptos other than bitcoin. These altcoins can range from silly (such as meme coins like Fartcoin) to incredibly useful (solving real-world problems). In Crypto Capital , Eric and his team are focused on finding the latter – "projects that are established yet phenomenally undervalued." If you're a bitcoin skeptic, Eric urges you to give altcoins a chance. (24:34) Finally, Eric lists off two altcoins that he likes today. The first one is up more than 700% in the Crypto Capital portfolio, and he believes it will continue doing really well. And the second altcoin has been largely hated ever since it collapsed 90%-plus. But Eric and his team believe it could soar 10 times over the next two years and eventually challenge heavyweights Solana and Ethereum, as its "superior" blockchain technology is different from anything else out there. (40:30)…

1
This System Turned $1,000 Into $250,000 1:07:14

рік тому1:07:14

1:07:14

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Keith Kaplan back to the show. Keith is the CEO of our corporate affiliate TradeSmith. And he's excited to share a breakthrough technology that he and his team have worked tirelessly to develop... Keith kicks off the show by discussing how you can use TradeSmith's new software to leverage stocks and short-term moves in order to generate income. It involves understanding both market seasonality and an individual stock's seasonality. Keith uses Tesla as an example and breaks down how he made 50% short-term gains just from reviewing past data trends. He notes that TradeSmith's data gets updated constantly, so if patterns change, users will know. After running 2.2 quintillion market tests, the TradeSmith team found the most optimal seasonality periods for 5,000 individual stocks and funds. And the numbers speak for themselves, with an 82.8% win rate and median gains of 6% over 15 trading days. (1:51) Next, Keith goes further in depth about how the system works – including sending entry and exit alerts for each position – and how human biases come into play. He emphasizes that this tool is made for investors all across the interaction spectrum... So you can have TradeSmith fish for you and tell you which stocks to buy, or you can do the fishing yourself and use the system to research stocks, or a combination of the two. Keith also explores how TradeSmith's team looks at past cyclical patterns to select the best stocks. (21:16) Finally, Keith shares how the algorithm works for options trading. In testing, it turned $1,000 into $250,000 over 16 years. Keith urges listeners to try the system with conservative position sizing and see for themselves the stellar results they'll get. It's all available in the Trade Cycles newsletter by TradeSmith. And as Keith hammers home, this technology is very advanced. Since no two stocks or funds are the same, no two algorithms end up being the same for them. (37:56)…

1
The Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2025 54:19

рік тому54:19

54:19

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey share their annual list of Top 10 Potential Surprises for the new year. As Dan clarifies from the outset, these are NOT predictions. They're simply things that would surprise investors in 2025 if they happened. We won't spoil the surprises. But just to give you an idea, you'll hear about everything from bitcoin to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to a possible Stansberry Research mayor. Even if Dan and Corey's surprises don't come about this year, this exercise is a reminder for investors to keep their minds open and to consider a broad range of outcomes. Surprise No. 1: 1:51Surprise No. 2: 5:43Surprise No. 3: 10:59Surprise No. 4: 17:11Surprise No. 5: 21:25Surprise No. 6: 26:06Surprise No. 7: 29:28Surprise No. 8: 33:04Surprise No. 9: 36:26Surprise No. 10: 41:31…

1
Gunslinging Gambler or Cautious Investor: Which One Are You? 1:03:23

рік тому1:03:23

1:03:23

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Herb Greenberg back to the show. Herb started out as a financial journalist and now publishes On the Street , a newsletter that offers observations, insights, and opinions on various stocks and the broad market. Herb has spent 50 years researching and writing about the markets, and he joins the podcast to impart some of his wisdom. Herb starts off by reintroducing himself, his opinions on market risk, and his history with long-biased research. He emphasizes that knowing yourself, your psychological makeup, and your skill set are crucial components to success. Some investors thrive under the pressure and enjoy the gambling nature of stocks, while others prefer to sleep well at night and take a more cautious, long-term approach. Either route is OK. And the same principle applies to specifics like when to sell a stock... "There's no one size fits all," Herb says. But the upside to every mistake is that you'll quickly learn more about yourself. (1:22) Next, Herb discusses a recent post in his On the Street newsletter about home-furnishings company RH. Not long ago, RH's CEO made comments concerning debt that raised many red flags. This leads to a conversation about software company MicroStrategy, which has been using debt to buy bitcoin. "It's a pyramid atop a pyramid," Herb quips. He also shares his thoughts on bitcoin itself, talks about the 2021 market mania where "everyone was a bag holder," and dives into how retail and institutional investors differ in risk versus reward. (19:27) Finally, Herb evaluates today's market optimism and the potential for an inflection point. He notes that many garbage stocks have gone from deep in the red to in the green this year for no reason other than hype. Herb then urges investors not to get complacent with their portfolio holdings and to always consider differing opinions on stocks, in case the setup has changed since you first bought in. "You lose sight of the ones that have not been problem children." Herb rounds things out with a discussion about short selling and market inefficiencies created by passive investing. (38:29)…

1
The Critics Are Wrong... Copper Demand Is Here to Stay 1:08:26

рік тому1:08:26

1:08:26

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Brian Dalton back to the show. Brian is president and CEO of Altius Minerals, a diversified mining royalty and streaming company operating in Canada, the U.S., and Brazil. Brian kicks things off by sharing the basics of Altius Minerals – what the company does, what sets it apart from other natural resource royalty companies, and the option value of its assets. He also talks a bit about his background and how he got his start in prospecting. (1:21) Next, Brian explores the renewable-energy part of the business. Altius took its coal revenues and reinvested those to write royalties on renewable-energy projects, particularly wind and solar. As Brian explains, nearly all of these projects have some aspect involving energy storage. And best of all, renewable energy's resource life is basically "infinite." (15:53) Then, Brian delves into copper. He urges listeners to ignore all of the noise around the metal – from both the "woke" and "antiwoke" sides of the aisle – and to realize that demand is steadily rising. In the short term, he says that investors can really take advantage of volatility and the irrationality of price cycles. But there's also a lot of money to be made long term, as demand isn't going anywhere. "Copper is electricity," Brian notes. Further, he discusses incentivization prices, operating costs, and the future of the industry. (28:59) Finally, Brian talks about nuclear energy's prospects, Altius' history with uranium royalties, and how he makes decisions about Altius' capital allocation. Unlike many other companies, Altius treats share buybacks as if they're competing against external investment opportunities. If the best value in the market is in the assets Altius already owns, and if there's a wide spread between that value and the share price, only then do buybacks happen. (44:50)…

1
You Can Make a Killing With Legal Monopolies Like Nvidia 1:00:08

рік тому1:00:08

1:00:08

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey are joined by Louis Navellier. Louis is a growth investor with more than 40 years of experience in the markets. His Growth Investor newsletter at our corporate affiliate InvestorPlace is catered toward individual investors. It helps give these folks an easy-to-understand look at current market trends and opportunities. Louis kicks things off by sharing how he got his start in finance, how he learned about "anomalies and efficiencies" in the market, and why he dislikes banking stocks. He predicts that the implosion of private credit is going to be the next black-swan event to upset the markets. With 11% yields, private credit simply isn't sustainable. Louis also discusses what changes President-elect Donald Trump will have to make for prosperity to rise, as well as what's happening in Ukraine. (1:14) Next, Louis touches on the market narrowing, describes which metrics his stock-grading system factors in, lists off several growth stocks he likes today, and reviews many legal monopolies he has profited from. One such name is chipmaker Nvidia, which Louis says he'll "be holding through the end of the decade." After that, he talks about why he's bullish on natural gas, how he spots legal monopolies in the first place, and the Biden administration's hostility toward tech. (18:55) Finally, Louis shares how he decides when to cut a stock loose and gives his take on nuclear energy. When it comes to his investing philosophy, he notes, "I only buy things when they earn money." And Louis closes with his reasoning for not buying utility stocks. (38:22)…

1
REITs Aren't Dead – Don't Believe the Negative Sentiment 1:03:36

рік тому1:03:36

1:03:36

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey welcome Brad Thomas to the show. Brad is the founder of our corporate affiliate Wide Moat Research. There, he serves as editor for the Wide Moat Daily , The Wide Moat Letter , the Intelligent Options Advisor , and the High-Yield Advisor newsletters. Brad joins the podcast to share some of his three decades' worth of experience in real estate. Brad kicks things off by describing his background in real estate, how he lost almost everything during the Great Recession, and how his experience helps him with his job today researching companies. Next, Brad debunks the three largest perceived overhangs for real estate investment trusts ("REITs"): debt maturities, rising rates, and the "dead" office sector. As he explains, they aren't as big of factors for equity REITs as many believe. And in particular, there are some gems that investors can find within the office sector. (1:47) Next, Brad talks about the growth potential for many specific REIT sectors, including cannabis, cell towers, data centers, and casinos. He throws out a few stock names along the way, and also explains what influence technology has had on REITs and their operations. This leads Brad to share his "trifecta approach" for diversifying between the three main beneficiaries of technology advancements. And he gives several reasons why investors should even bother to get into REITs right now, from valuations to Donald Trump. (18:49) Finally, Brad points out that most companies have real estate components. So understanding how business is created from the ground up gives him and his team at Wide Moat Research an advantage. He emphasizes that Wide Moat's main goals are principal preservation and finding "sleep well at night" stocks. Brad then finishes by sharing which sectors outside of real estate he finds most attractive today. (41:17)…

1
Why a Long-Term Investment Focus Makes All the Difference 1:02:32

рік тому1:02:32

1:02:32

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour , Dan and Corey are joined by Matt Franz. Matt is founder and principal of Eagle Point Capital. The registered investment adviser aims to build wealth in the long term while avoiding the permanent loss of capital. Matt kicks off the show by describing Eagle Point Capital's ownership mentality for buying stocks and what qualities he looks for in a company. As he explains, businesses that have very simple unit economics and that are noncyclical tend to be the best. He also zeroes in on specific metrics to evaluate stocks, the importance of owning businesses that reinvest capital, and his "replication mode" method for assessing a company's future potential. (1:41) Next, Matt talks about whether brands can be economic moats. He urges investors not to conflate brand awareness with pricing power, using consumer-electronics company Toshiba as an example. This leads to a conversation about luxury brands, why Matt prefers distributors to retailers, and why he only invests in companies worth 10 times earnings or less. Matt then breaks down his long-term focus, discussing intrinsic value and giving listeners a reality check. (17:10) Finally, Matt highlights the discipline it takes to be a long-term value investor, as it's human nature to want to add more to a position when it's soaring or sell shares on bad news. However, when you own good businesses, it's best to sit on your hands and do nothing. Matt also shares some guidelines Eagle Point Capital follows when searching for stocks in terms of market cap, industry, risk factor, and cyclicality. (37:53)…

1
From Real Estate to Crypto, Value-Investing Opportunities Are Everywhere 59:32

рік тому59:32