Middle East Tinderbox, Houthi Edition

New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast

Allison Minor, a Middle East expert, explores how these tensions might escalate into a regional conflict and whether a broader war can be avoided.

The Middle East is a war zone with Gaza as ground zero. But barely a day goes by when there isn't also fighting in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Israel, the Red Sea, or elsewhere. The danger is that one of these battles could suddenly ignite a bigger conflict with global consequences.

Perhaps surprisingly, Yemen may be a prime candidate for that honor. For years the Iranian-backed Shia Houthis have been fighting, more or less successfully, the Saudi and Emirati-backed Sunni government; today the Houthis control a majority of Yemen's population, but not the country’s hydrocarbons. And—suddenly—they matter, far beyond Yemen’s borders.

Why? First, the Houthis are an integral part of Iran's coalition of regional militias who could become significant players in a regional conflict. Second, for months the Houthis have been attacking container ships going through the Red Sea, diverting substantial traffic away from the Suez Canal. Third, a recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv led Israel to launch a disproportionately devastating assault on the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was clearly aimed more at the Iranians than at the Houthis.

That’s exactly how a local conflict could become something much bigger.

Our guest on this episode is an expert in all things Yemen. Allison Minor is an American Middle East expert, at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Although she recently served as Deputy Special Envoy for Yemen at the U.S. State Department, the views she shared with New Thinking for a New World are her own, and not those of the American government.

What do you think: can a general war in the Middle East be avoided?