Testing Market Capacity | S6 E07

World of Oil Derivatives

Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum.

We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance refinery maintenance with market demand to sustain current price levels.

In macroeconomic news, the Saudi government has instructed Aramco to halt expansion initiatives, signalling a shift towards green energy. The hosts also discuss conflicting actions from Australia's top oil and gas producer.

Martha's trade idea this week is to buy the FEI (Asian benchmark) propane contract and sell the CP (Saudi Arabia) propane contract, as the CP levels have dropped recently. This may lead to profit-taking, while there is support for the FEI with potential poor liquidity, making it a short-term contrarian trade with good upside.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:30 This Week in Trading
6:31 Macro Market News
12:45 Refinery Margins
18:20 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
26:26 Trade Idea
29:09 Poll Results and Outro