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Tariff Tangles and Tech Tumbles
Manage episode 464472414 series 3577695
Вміст надано Manoj Sharma. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією Manoj Sharma або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #906.
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955 епізодів
Manage episode 464472414 series 3577695
Вміст надано Manoj Sharma. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією Manoj Sharma або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #906.
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955 епізодів
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×Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1009. Good morning, and welcome to Spy Trader, I'm your host, Fumbles McFinnigan. It's Sunday, March 9th, 6AM here on the West Coast, and we're diving headfirst into what to expect in the stock market for the week of March 10th through 14th, 2025. Buckle up, because it's going to be a bumpy ride. Let's get started! First off, let's talk big picture. We're still wrestling with inflation, even though it's cooled off a bit. The Federal Reserve has interest rates up pretty high to try and keep inflation down. The job market has been surprisingly strong, but there are signs it might be slowing down. Plus, we've got all sorts of geopolitical craziness going on, which always makes the market nervous. All these high interest rates tend to make stocks less attractive, especially for those fastgrowing companies that need to borrow money. Inflation eats into company profits and makes people think twice before spending. Now, what should we look out for this week? Keep a close watch on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, and the Producer Price Index, or PPI. These reports tell us how inflation is doing, and the market will react big time to any surprises. Also, pay attention to Retail Sales numbers. These tell us how confident people are about spending money. Even though the Fed isn't scheduled to meet this week, be prepared to dissect every word any Fed official says for clues about what they might do next. If the inflation numbers come in hotter than expected, stocks will likely take a hit because it'll mean interest rates are staying higher for longer. But if the data is weak, we might see a rally as people start hoping the Fed will ease up. While the peak of earnings season is behind us, some companies will still be reporting their Q4 2024 results. Pay close attention to what they're saying about their outlook for the first quarter of 2025 and the rest of the year. Also, keep an eye out for any major conferences or events that could give us insights into specific sectors. Of course, any big company news like mergers, acquisitions, or new product announcements can also move the market. Positive earnings and optimistic forecasts will boost stocks, while negative surprises will drag them down. When it comes to specific sectors, tech stocks are really sensitive to interest rate changes. So if inflation fears are still around, tech might struggle. However, any good news about AI or specific tech companies could give them a boost. Energy stocks are always volatile because they're tied to oil prices, which are affected by geopolitics and global demand. The financial sector, like banks, can benefit from higher interest rates, but they're also vulnerable if the economy slows down. Healthcare is generally a safe bet, and it tends to do better when the overall market is worried. Consumer discretionary stocks are closely tied to consumer confidence and spending, so watch those Retail Sales numbers closely. Industrials are linked to economic growth and infrastructure spending, so any positive news on those fronts could help them. Keep an eye on market sentiment using indicators like the CNN Fear & Greed Index. Extreme levels of fear or greed can sometimes signal a change in direction. Also, watch key support and resistance levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow. Breaking through those levels can indicate potential trend changes. So, what's the plan for next week? Given all the uncertainty, a cautious approach might be best. Consider reducing your overall exposure to stocks, especially if you don't like taking risks. Focus on companies that are rock solid with strong balance sheets, good cash flow, and a history of making profits. Allocate some of your portfolio to defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. If you're feeling adventurous, consider shortterm trading strategies to take advantage of market swings, but always use stoploss orders to limit your potential losses. Most importantly, monitor those economic data releases closely and be ready to adjust your positions accordingly. Don't panic sell if the market dips! Take a longterm view and avoid making emotional decisions. Consider using options strategies, like covered calls or protective puts, to generate income or protect against losses. Remember, this cautious approach is all about navigating the uncertainty we're facing. Focusing on quality companies gives you a safety net, while defensive sectors offer downside protection. Shortterm trading can help you profit from volatility, and monitoring the data keeps you informed. And finally, remember, how do you impress a financial planner? Show them your longterm savings plan. That's all for today's episode of Spy Trader. Remember, this is just my take on things based on the information available right now. It's not financial advice, so talk to a professional before making any decisions. Market conditions can change quickly, and past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Have a great trading week, everyone!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1008. Hey everyone, it's your pal, Chip McStocks here, and welcome to "Spy Trader"! It's Saturday, March 8th, 5 AM Pacific Time, and we're diving into a quick recap of the week's market happenings. Why do stocks always seem so cheerful? Because they have lots of ticks. So, grab your coffee, and let's get started. The past week ending March 7th, 2025, saw a general downtrend in the U.S. stock market with a good bit of volatility thrown in. Tariff concerns, especially those impacting trade with Canada, Mexico, and China, were a major drag. Plus, the AI sector faced increased scrutiny which didn't help. Tech and energy stocks took a hit early in the week, while the more defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples held up a bit better later on. Overseas, European stocks were mixed, but Asian markets had their best week since September. Economic data painted a mixed picture. Manufacturing data was okay, but consumer sentiment surprisingly dropped. Inflation figures were in line with expectations, but purchasing managers reported higher input prices, hinting that consumer inflation might be growing. The market is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. And of course, geopolitical factors, like trade talks and discussions about a ceasefire in Ukraine, played their part. So, what does all this mean? Well, uncertainty about tariffs and concerns about a potential economic slowdown have made the market a bit defensive. We're seeing a rotation away from tech and growth stocks towards more stable sectors. People are seeking safety in bonds, driving Treasury yields down. There's even some worry about stagflation which is slow growth combined with rising inflation. Now, let's talk about some specific companies and sectors. First up, crypto. It looks like Trump is taking a strong stance in favor of crypto which would mean ending SEC investigations into companies like Coinbase and Kraken, which could be a plus. However, keep in mind that it could also mean increased speculative activity and volatility in the overall market. Next up, Alphabet, that's Google, is facing a House Judiciary Committee subpoena regarding potential government pressure on content moderation. Could mean future volatility for Alphabet and other tech giants. Now, Walmart, everyone's favorite discount store, is seeing strong sales growth, but a lot of it is due to higherincome consumers trading down. This suggests some broader economic concerns, and this boost might be temporary. Walmart's stock is trading at a premium, so be careful there. Let's talk about Amazon. Amazon is looking like a good growth stock thanks to its dominance in ecommerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising. The cloud computing market is expected to reach two trillion dollars by 2030. That's a lot of money. And even though it's huge, Amazon's valuation is still looking pretty reasonable. Something to keep an eye on. Speaking of inflation, the article highlights that it might be stubborn and remain high, which could put pressure on consumer spending, especially for retirees. We also found a video that takes a look at the current state of the stock market, examining recent macroeconomic data, and it also includes insights from Tom Lee of Fundstrat. Important to remember that even wellestablished companies like Apple might not offer exceptional returns due to high valuations and slowing growth. Valuation matters and high P/E ratios can limit future returns. Growth is key. Okay, let's talk about the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is nearing correction territory, and the S&P 500 is also down. Downturns can be scary, but they present buying opportunities for longterm investors. Focus on fundamentally sound businesses with longterm growth potential. Use these downturns wisely to acquire more shares of quality companies at lower prices. Don't chase popular stocks with stretched valuations. Okta shares surged after a strong report, suggesting continued demand for cybersecurity solutions. Finally, the connected TV advertising market is booming, which is good news for companies like PubMatic that are investing in this area. Alright, that's all for this edition of "Spy Trader". Remember, I'm not giving you personalized financial advice; just sharing my thoughts. Do your own research before making any moves. Until next time, this is Chip McStocks, signing off!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1007. Hey everyone, it's your pal Captain Calamity, and welcome back to Spy Trader! It's Friday, March 7th, 5 PM pacific time, and we're diving into the market madness to make sense of what just happened. This week was a rollercoaster, folks! We started off shaky, but managed to claw back some gains by the end of the day. Still, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all took a beating, marking their worst weekly losses since September. The Dow shed 2.4%, the S&P 500 tumbled 3.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. Looks like everyone was holding on tight! So, what caused this wild ride? Well, a few things. First off, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is doing alright and they're not rushing to change interest rates. That helped calm things down a bit on Friday. But before that, a weakerthanexpected jobs report had everyone worried. Plus, there's still all that uncertainty around President Trump's trade policies and tariffs. Nobody likes uncertainty! Some companies did well, like Broadcom, which jumped after reporting great results thanks to AI demand. But others, like Costco, took a nosedive on weak earnings. Now, let's get into some specifics. This week we learned that order flow analytics and tracking 'Power Inflows' can give you insights into what institutions are doing with stocks like KLAC. It might show you where the smart money is moving. But remember, risk management is KEY. Always use stop losses! And speaking of key, Trump has made an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a digital asset stockpile. This is potentially a positive catalyst for cryptorelated stocks. The move signals that the government is warming up to crypto. Hopefully, we'll see some clearer regulations on stablecoins soon. On the defense side, Lockheed Martin got a boost because Wells Fargo raised their price target, thinking other countries might want to buy U.S. defense stocks. But with government budget stuff up in the air, these stocks might be volatile. Then there's Thor Industries, which makes RVs. Their recent earnings miss shows that companies that rely on consumers are at the mercy of the overall economy. And finally, Apple delayed the release of its revamped Siri with Apple Intelligence. This delay is raising concerns about Apple's ability to compete in the AI space. Alright, so what should you do with all this info? Well, be prepared for more volatility. The market is still jittery about the economy, trade, and all sorts of things. If you're feeling anxious, maybe consider shifting some investments into safehaven assets like gold or U.S. government bonds. But also remember that market dips can be opportunities. If you see a good company at a discount, it might be worth picking up. Just be careful, diversify, and keep an eye on what's happening around the world. As a general recommendation, be mindful of companies reliant on consumer spending and pay close attention to company outlooks and forecasts, as these can significantly impact stock valuations. Always remember past performance does not guarantee future success. Before I go, got one for you... What do you call an ant who counts money? An accountant. Okay folks, that's all the time we have for today. Remember, I'm Captain Calamity, not a financial advisor, so do your own research before making any big moves. Stay safe out there, and I'll catch you next time on Spy Trader!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1006. Hey everyone, it's your pal Chip Flory here, and welcome to Spy Trader. It's Friday, March 7th, and the time is 11AM pacific. Let's dive into what's shaking up the market today. We're seeing a pretty volatile stretch, folks, so buckle up. The Dow is up a tiny 0.1% today, but get this, it's down nearly 3% for the week. The S&P 500 is flat today, but off 3.6% this week, and the Nasdaq is down a smidge today, and 4.1% for the week. Ouch! Year to date, the Dow is barely in the green, while the S&P and Nasdaq are both down. What's causing all this choppiness? Well, a few things. There's ongoing uncertainty about policies coming from the Trump White House, and some real fears about a potential economic slowdown. The jobs report wasn't exactly stellar, and those tariff concerns keep popping up, potentially leading to inflation and hurting companies with international business. The Fed is staying put for now, trying to separate the 'signal from the noise', as Powell put it, which adds another layer of uncertainty. We did see some action in individual stocks. Broadcom was a bright spot, their shares jumped after reporting betterthanexpected results thanks to strong AI demand. On the flip side, Marvell Technology took a dive after missing revenue expectations, which kind of spooked the chip sector a bit. All this means investor sentiment is souring, and there's a growing feeling that the economy might hit a soft patch in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 dipping below its 200day moving average is also making folks a little more cautious. Let's talk trading recommendations. First up, Viavi Solutions. Rosenblatt upgraded it to a 'Buy', citing growth in their Network Enablement business driven by 5G and fiber optic expansion. If you're looking at telecom and networking, this might be one to watch. On the other hand, keep an eye on consumer discretionary stocks. The downgrade of Traeger, the grill company, highlights concerns about consumer spending on bigticket items. Plus, potential tariffs on Chinese imports could hurt them and other companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Also, I'm seeing bullish options activity on S&P Global, suggesting some big investors think it could go up. Analysts generally agree, so that might be an opportunity. Teva Pharmaceutical is another one showing bullish options activity and analyst support. Finally, a word of caution about crypto. Singapore is tightening regulations, warning about the risks. This could chill the market and send investors back to safer havens. So, there you have it, folks. A volatile market with plenty of crosscurrents. Remember to do your own research, stay informed, and don't panic. Oh, and before I go, what do you call a careless stockbroker on a skateboard? A crash in motion. Until next time, this is Chip Flory, signing off. Happy trading!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1005. Hey everyone, it's your pal, Funny Moneybags, back with another episode of Spy Trader! It's Friday, March 7th, and the time is 5AM here on the West Coast. Buckle up, because the market's been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. How do you calm a wild stockbroker? Talk about a "stable" market. Now, let's dive into what's been moving the S&P 500. The big story today is that US equities are under pressure. The S&P 500 is down, testing its 200day moving average. All sectors are lower, with tech and consumer discretionary taking the biggest hits. We're seeing a lot of bearish sentiment out there, driven by a few key factors. First off, trade war fears are back in a big way. New tariffs from the Trump administration on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China are raising concerns about higher prices and disrupted supply chains. The market is worried these aren't just negotiating tactics. On top of that, there are mounting concerns about the US economy slowing down. We saw a dip in retail sales in January, and unfortunately job market is cooling, with layoffs in February reaching their highest level since July 2020. And let's not forget inflation, which is still stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. All of this is contributing to increased volatility. The VIX, which is the volatility index, is closing in on 25 after chilling around 15 for most of February. What does this all mean for your investments? Well, diversification is key in this kind of market. Those highflying tech and consumer discretionary sectors that led the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024 are now lagging. Defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples, along with cyclicals like financials, have been showing some strength. We also need to keep a close eye on those tariffs. They could reaccelerate inflation and slow economic growth. Retaliatory trade actions could really mess with corporate earnings. And of course, the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates will be crucial. Continued earnings growth is what we need to sustain the bull market. Now, let's look at some specific companies and news that could impact the S&P 500. While S&P Global Ratings is concerned that CK Hutchison Holdings sale of its ports business will reduce diversification, it is unlikely to have a direct impact on the S&P 500. The Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory, and Jim Cramer is suggesting that Broadcom's strong earnings might not be enough to spark a significant market rebound due to overall market conditions. This could mean continued choppiness for the S&P 500. AMD has been underperforming the S&P 500 and Nvidia, but analysts think it could be a good pick for a recovery in 2025. Its forward P/E ratio is below the S&P 500's, but as always, please do your own research. We're also seeing some interesting moves in consumer discretionary. Kirkland's and Wayfair are oversold, but that doesn't necessarily mean the whole sector or the S&P 500 will bounce back. Tesla's getting some good news out of China with 200,000 orders for the refreshed Model Y. That's a positive for Tesla, but also indicative of continued growth in EV demand. Bill Ackman is trying to acquire Howard Hughes Holdings, but that's unlikely to have a major impact on the S&P 500 directly. Finally, it's crucial to stay informed and adaptable. The market is always changing, and what worked yesterday might not work today. I'll be back soon with another update. Until then, happy trading!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1004. Hey everyone, it's your pal, Croesus Callahan, here for another edition of Spy Trader. It's Thursday, March 6th, 5PM pacific time, and the markets are looking a bit shaky today. What's a financial analyst's favorite weather? A financial forecast. Let's dive into what's moving the S&P 500. First, the headline: US stock markets closed lower today as worries about economic growth and the impact of tariffs continue to weigh on investors. The S&P 500 took a hit, dropping 1.8% to close at 5,739. The Dow slid about 1%, and the techheavy Nasdaq really got hammered, tumbling 2.6% and officially entering correction territory. We're seeing pressure on equities from all sides, with the S&P 500 testing its 200day moving average again. Tech is really feeling the heat. So, what's behind all this? Tariffs are a big part of it. President Trump's trade policies, especially tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, are creating a lot of uncertainty. The back and forth nature of these announcements is just making things worse. There are also growing concerns about slowing economic growth and a downturn in consumer spending. Plus, some weakness in tech stocks, especially those related to AI. For example, shares of semiconductor manufacturer Marvell took a dive after their forward guidance disappointed investors. It seems like that AI rally might be losing steam. We're also seeing some concerning signs in consumer confidence, with some surveys showing the largest monthly drop since August 2021. While initial weekly jobless claims fell, there are broader worries about the job market cooling down, and there are even reports indicating a surge in layoffs. And let's not forget inflation, which is still stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. All this is leading to increased volatility in the market. We're seeing investors rotating out of those highflying tech stocks and into sectors like healthcare, basic materials, and financials. There's even some fear that we might be headed for a period of stagflation, where the economy slows down while inflation remains high. Now, let's talk about some specific articles. There's some interesting stuff happening with potential tax benefits for big tech companies like Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Alphabet. Senator Warren is taking a closer look at this. The potential for significant tax breaks under a Trump administration is creating some uncertainty. While tax cuts can give corporate profits a shortterm boost, there's concern about the longterm macroeconomic risks, like increased national debt. We're also seeing increased scrutiny of corporate lobbying efforts, which could add pressure on companies. Because these tech companies make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, any policy changes affecting them could have a big impact on the index. Also, the market is waiting for the February jobs report, with economists expecting around 160,000 jobs added and a 4% unemployment rate. But there's some downside risk here. The ADP report showed a significant slowdown in hiring, raising concerns that the official jobs report might disappoint. Comerica Bank, for instance, is forecasting 150,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.1%. They see even further downside risk after that ADP report. Anticipated government spending cuts and tariffs are expected to weigh on job growth in the coming months. All this is contributing to the down day we saw for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq today. Now, on the healthcare front, even with the rise of weight loss drugs, global obesity is projected to increase significantly by 2050. This suggests there will be sustained longterm demand for healthcare solutions addressing obesityrelated diseases. This is generally good news for the healthcare sector, which is a big part of the S&P 500. Even though the study highlights the scale of the obesity problem, it also acknowledges that the impact of weight loss drugs may not be fully reflected in its data. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which are key players in the weight loss drug market, may see continued growth, but market expectations might need to be recalibrated if global obesity rates keep climbing despite drug adoption. Lastly, Gap Inc's Q4 earnings beat expectations, showing resilience despite a slight sales decline and macroeconomic pressures. This is a positive sign that consumer discretionary spending might be stronger than we thought. Their operating margin improved significantly, thanks to cost control. This is important because it shows companies can still find ways to boost profitability even if they're not seeing a lot of topline growth. Gap's online presence is also significant, accounting for 41% of total sales. This shows that companies with strong online strategies are likely to do well in the current environment. But while Gap expects sales growth in 2025, the projected growth rate is modest. This reflects the overall market sentiment of cautious optimism. Given all this, my trading recommendation is to remain cautious. The market is facing a lot of headwinds, including tariff concerns, slowing economic growth, and uncertainty about future interest rate policy. Consider diversifying your portfolio into sectors that are less sensitive to economic cycles, such as healthcare and consumer staples. Keep a close eye on upcoming economic data, especially the jobs report and inflation numbers, as these will likely have a significant impact on market sentiment. And as always, manage your risk carefully and don't be afraid to take profits when they're available. That's all for today's edition of Spy Trader. Until next time, this is Croesus Callahan reminding you to stay informed, stay diversified, and stay profitable.…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1003. Hey everyone, and welcome to Spy Trader! I'm your host, Dandy Don, ready to break down the market moves for you. It's Thursday, March 6th, 11AM Pacific Time. Let's dive right into what's shaking up the S&P 500 today.&x20;Today, the U.S. stock markets are down, thanks to concerns about slowing economic growth and those pesky new tariffs that everyone's worried about. The S&P 500 is taking a hit, down 1.4% to 5,759. The Dow isn't looking too hot either, sliding 1.2%, and the Nasdaq is tumbling 1.7%, with tech stocks leading the decline. So, what's causing all this red? Well, recent data is showing the U.S. economy might be weakening. Retail sales dipped 0.9% in January, and layoffs in February reached levels we haven't seen since July 2020. And let's not forget about those tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada, Mexico, and China. People are worried about higher prices and disruptions to businesses. It's like a neverending backandforth, adding to the overall uncertainty. Inflation is also being stubborn, staying above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Some are even whispering the word 'stagflation,' which is when the economy and job market slow down while inflation rises. Not a pretty picture! Previously, we were riding high on strong consumer spending, a solid labor market, and accelerating corporate profits. But now, those pillars are starting to wobble. What does this all mean for your investments? Expect more volatility as investors react to every little piece of economic data and policy announcement. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is up, so buckle up! We might also see investors shifting from tech to sectors like healthcare, basic materials, and financial services, or even looking overseas for better deals. It could also mean a 'flight to safety,' with money flowing into gold and U.S. government bonds. Now, for some stockspecific news and how it relates to the S&P 500. While Abercrombie & Fitch had strong results, an analyst lowered their price target due to 'greater macro uncertainty,' highlighting caution about the overall economic outlook. Plus, the tariffs are hitting their operating margin, which is not good! Over in the crypto world, a wallet linked to a Trumpbacked crypto project made some big purchases of Ethereum and Wrapped Bitcoin. This shows how much politics can influence the crypto market, leading to shortterm volatility, which could eventually spill over into the traditional market. On the pharma front, JP Morgan is positive on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, which highlights the market's potential reward for companies focusing on specific therapeutic areas and demonstrating strong commercial performance. And speaking of tariffs, they're not just affecting Abercrombie. They're creating uncertainty across the board, potentially impacting corporate earnings and consumer spending. The suggestion is to focus on specific stocks that can weather the storm, like Fortinet in cybersecurity, Texas Roadhouse for restaurants, and Lowe's in home improvement. Also, companies with more women in leadership, particularly CEOs, tend to perform better. Check out Citigroup, Lumen Technologies, PG&E, General Motors, and Expedia Group. These companies, led by female CEOs, are driving positive changes and growth. Finally, Gap's mixed outlook reflects uncertainty in the consumer discretionary sector. Their dividend increase signals some confidence, but watch their upcoming earnings and guidance closely for clues about the broader retail market. So, to sum it up, be prepared for a bumpy ride. Keep a longterm perspective, and don't make rash decisions based on shortterm market swings. And remember, what do you call a financial planner's secret diary? His 'private equity.' That's all for today's Spy Trader! Stay informed, stay diversified, and I'll catch you in the next one.…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1002. Good morning, Spy Traders! It's your pal, Buck Naked, here, ready to dive into the market madness. It's 5 AM on Thursday, March 6th, 2025, and the markets are already buzzing. Why are computers so good at investing? They're great at byteing time. Let's get to it. First up, we saw stocks climb yesterday after President Trump eased some tariffs. The S&P 500 closed at 5,842.63, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 43,006.59, and the Nasdaq Composite at 18,552.73. But hold on to your hats, because this morning it's a different story! The S&P 500 is down about 1.5%, the Dow is taking a 1.2% hit, and the Nasdaq is down a hefty 1.9%. Concerns about slowing economic growth and the impact of those everpresent tariffs are spooking investors. So, what's driving this rollercoaster? Well, those tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada, Mexico, and China are still a major headache. They're creating uncertainty and raising fears about higher prices. Plus, there are worries about the U.S. economy slowing down, with some recent data showing a dip in retail sales and a rise in layoffs. And inflation? Still above the Federal Reserve's target, adding fuel to the fire. All this uncertainty is making investors nervous, and we're seeing a shift towards safer assets like gold and government bonds. Now, let's talk about what this means for your trading strategy. Given the rising bearish sentiment and increased volatility, it's time to be cautious. Keep a close eye on those tariffs and any news about economic growth. Also, watch for any announcements regarding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, similar to gold. If major economies or even U.S. states start stockpiling Bitcoin, it could signal further mainstream acceptance of crypto and give a boost to blockchainrelated companies in the S&P 500. But remember, Bitcoin is volatile, so trade carefully. We're also seeing some interesting activity in individual stocks. For example, unusual options activity in Zscaler, a cloudbased cybersecurity company, suggests a bearish outlook in the short term, even though analysts generally have a positive view. This highlights the importance of doing your own research and not just relying on analyst ratings. Also, the high percentage of bearish options activity on Spotify, even with mostly bullish analyst ratings, is signaling caution and perhaps concerns about growth stocks or consumer discretionary sectors. It's a reminder that individual stock analysis is key, even in a bull market. Remember Home Depot? They've launched "Magic Apron", integrating generative AI into operations, impacting customer service and sales. This signals a trend across various sectors within the S&P 500. Keep in mind, even with strong growth, excessive valuation can make a stock vulnerable to pullbacks, as seen with AppLovin. This highlights the importance of considering valuation when investing in S&P 500 companies. Finally, don't forget about the potential impact of student loan debt on the economy. Cuts to the Department of Education staff are hindering assistance for borrowers, potentially leading to increased defaults and reduced consumer spending. This could negatively impact companies within the S&P 500, particularly those in retail and consumer services. So, there you have it, folks. A mixed bag of news and plenty of uncertainty. Stay informed, trade smart, and Buck Naked out!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1001. Alright, welcome back to Spy Trader, the only financial podcast brave enough to tell you what's really going on with your money! It's 5:00 PM on March 5th, 2025, and your host, the Sultan of Savings, the Mahatma of Money, Barry Bonds Jr. (no relation to the other Barry Bonds, I just like hitting home runs with my investments) is here to break down what you need to know. First up, the big picture: The market's bouncing back today after a rough couple of days. We saw the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all close sharply higher. The Dow and S&P each gained 1.1%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.5%. Remember those losses? That was due to tariff worries and jitters about the US economy. The S&P and Nasdaq actually hit fourmonth lows recently because of all the volatility. Fun fact: the S&P 500 is now only up less than 4% since the election in November. So, what's behind these mood swings? Tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs! President Trump's newly imposed and proposed tariffs are a major factor. Remember that 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada? And those doubled duties on Chinese goods, now at 20%? Those are a big deal! Hopes for tariff relief are what perked the market up today, but the worry is still there: tariffs could spark inflation, mess with the economy, and hurt companies. Also, we had that weakerthanexpected privatesector jobs report in February, which raised concerns about economic growth, plus the usual dose of geopolitical tensions thrown in for good measure. What does all this mean? There's a real concern that the recent market weakness is a sign of a slowing US economy. This uncertainty can send investors running for "safehaven" assets. And these tariffs and trade tensions are definitely bad news for businesses, especially those with international operations. We also need to watch consumer confidence as it is an important indicator of the economy. Now, let's dive into our trading recommendations. Given the current volatility and tariff concerns, a cautious approach is warranted. First, let's discuss General Dynamics. It announced nearly a 6% increase in its quarterly dividend, from $1.42 to $1.50 per share, and the stock jumped almost 5% on the news. This marks the 28th consecutive year that General Dynamics has increased its dividend! Their dividend yield is just under 2.3%, solid for a wellestablished company within the S&P 500. Even with some softness in their Gulfstream aircraft division, General Dynamics' commitment to its dividend demonstrates financial discipline and a focus on longterm shareholder value. So I would recommend buying the stock if it dips. Also look at Quanta Services. PWR has demonstrated strong performance, outperforming the broader market by 13.55% on an annualized basis over the past decade. Their annual return is around 24.57%. Based on strong historic return, this would be a solid stock to buy. Now for a little crypto corner. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Solana, had a rally due to the temporary exemption granted by the U.S. on tariffs with Canada, Mexico, and China. We must remember that crypto markets are volatile and prices fluctuate quickly, so proceed with caution. So, while we don't expect everyone to start investing in crypto, keep an eye on the underlying factors driving its movements – especially trade war developments and shifts in risk appetite. These factors are relevant to all investors, including those focused on the S&P 500. Also, remember the AI craze! The Chinese tech companies are fundraising a lot based on the excitement around AI. This also translates to the S&P 500. Make sure the AI companies are taking a pro active stance on AI ethics and saftey! In short, it's all about balance right now. Diversify your portfolio. And as always, remember past performance is not indicative of future results. Finally, let's discuss the potential influence of a new strategic crypto reserve as suggested by a certain presidential candidate. The announcement of the cryptocurrencies that would be a part of this new crypto reserve could make the market very volatile. Keep an eye on Bitcoin, Etherium and Solana. The crypto market could sway between a bull and selloff, based on this. And now, for a quick joke to lighten the mood: Why don't economists like sports? Too many goal conflicts. That's all for today, folks! Remember to do your own research, consult with a financial advisor, and don't let market volatility keep you up at night. This is Barry Bonds Jr., signing off, reminding you to always swing for the fences with your investments, but keep your eye on the ball!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1000. Welcome to 'Spy Trader' where we dive into the latest and greatest from the world of finance, focusing on our beloved S&P 500. I'm your host, Chuck Finster, coming to you from a cozy booth that's approximately 11 o'clock on March 5, 2025. Time to put on those market goggles and see what the stock market has decided to entertain us with today. Let's begin with the current market drama. The S&P 500, like my uncle's attempts at making sourdough, has taken a bit of a dive, down 97 points since the new year. We’ve seen a rollercoaster of market activity with recent sharp declines, largely impacted by brewing trade tensions reminiscent of my cat's habit of pushing things off the table. These tensions are sending shudders through sectors like automobiles and retail. Imagine tariffs being the grumpy neighbor no one wants to deal with—it's not good news for anyone with global business interests. Speaking of global interests, let's pivot to BioNTech. The FDA has hit pause on their malaria vaccine trial. Not the best news if you're excited about groundbreaking vaccines, but oddly enough, BioNTech’s stock isn’t feeling the blues—it’s up 3.11%. It seems investors are banking on the broader prospects of RNAbased treatments, or maybe they're just buying into BioNTech's positive spin on working things out with the FDA. Meanwhile, keep your eye on the biotech sector; these kinds of regulatory challenges could make stocks as volatile as my Aunt Linda’s mood during the holidays. Swinging to the opposite side, AutoZone stumbled slightly on earnings.Though they're juggling some earnings misses, analysts are oddly upbeat about their future. They’ve even hiked up those price targets, egged on by ambitious growth strategies like their MegaHub expansion. AutoZone's situation sheds light on the retail sector resilience, showing there's pep in the step of auto parts enthusiasts. Over in tech land, let's glance at Intuit. Analysts say it's time to be "overweight" on these guys—no, it's not a postholiday diet; they mean investors might want to buy. Despite recent underwhelming performance, the faith is strong in Intuit’s ability to innovate, which could spark a fire under their stock price. A little patience might pay off here. Meanwhile, Coinbase is getting a mixed vibe from investors—pessimism seems to be winning for now. Betcha they’re watching those regulatory trends like my neighbor's dog watches the squirrels. It could mean turbulence ahead, so strap in if you're dabbling in tech financials. But what about some reassurance? Like a good, cold lemonade on a hot day, the healthcare sector is looking pretty refreshing with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly battling it out in the weightloss drug arena. Technological advancement and competitive pricing are driving interest, potentially lifting healthcare's influence in the S&P 500. So, what’s the takeaway, and do we have any trading recommendations? Tread lightly in the biotech waters and look for safe harbors in resilient sectors like healthcare, where growth potential seems promising despite the turbulent seas of tariffs and economic shifts. Keep a watchful eye on techrelated stocks, especially those making innovative strides like Intuit; these could be prime pickups if they’re poised for a rebound. However, cautious optimism is warranted given present market dynamics. And to send you off with a smile, here's a little chuckle for the road: What's a tax auditor's favorite animal? The taxidermy! Ok, it might not put as many smiles as a bullish market move, but hopefully it got a laugh. That’s your look at the market for now, brought to you by Chuck Finster here at Spy Trader. Stay tuned, stay savvy, and as always, keep your portfolio balanced and your outlook positive. Until next time!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #999. Good morning, folks! Welcome to another episode of 'Spy Trader', your goto podcast for the latest and greatest in the world of the S&P 500. I'm your host, Bullish Bob, and yes, it's bright and early—5:00 AM, March 5th, 2025. Remember, folks, only caffeine can match the buzz of the stock market in the morning! As we sip our coffee, let's dive into what’s brewing in the financial world today. It seems the U.S. stock market has entered a bit of a rocky terrain. Yesterday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave up all the gains they made postelection. We saw the S&P 500 close at its lowest since back in early November 2024. It's all part of a broader trend with the market facing declines. The Dow fell by 1.6%, the S&P 500 by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq by 0.4%. Yeartodate, the Morningstar US Market Index is down a timid 0.25%, but every decimal adds up, am I right? So what's causing all this market gloom? Well, a stew of factors, actually. New U.S. tariffs against trade partners like Canada, Mexico, and China are spicing things up, and not in a good way. Retaliatory tariffs from these countries are on the table too, making investors worry about inflation and slowing economic activity. Plus, the ongoing discourse around interest rates and policy uncertainties from the Trump administration is adding to the market's uncertainty. Not to mention, stubborn inflation is like a stubborn stain on the market’s white shirt—no matter how hard we scrub, it just won’t go away. Now, let’s get into today’s highlights: First up, despite the doom and gloom in stock markets, mortgage demand is seeing an upswing. Applications rose a significant 20.4% last week, evidently the first leap in three weeks. It looks like the drop in mortgage rates to 6.73%—the lowest since December 2024—is opening the floodgates. Refinancing applications saw a whopping 37% increase weekoverweek. Now that’s what I call a mortgage marathon! Also catching our eye is the surge of interest in defense stocks. Thanks to some geopolitical tension due to Trump's temporary suspension of military aid to Ukraine, defense companies seem to be in the spotlight. For investors looking to diversify, this might be an area worth watching, as tensions often lead defense budgets to climb faster than a cat up a tree. On a lighter note, crypto news is making waves too, with Bitcoin setting a little dance with trades below $90,000. Speculation around U.S. trade agreements is fueling some crypto optimism. But remember folks, crypto markets can be as volatile as your Aunt Marsha during the holiday season. And now for a fun break: What’s a banker’s favorite type of fish? A loan shark! I know, I know, what a fintastic joke! As we wrap up today's insights, let's talk about trading recommendations. With continued volatility expected, now might be a good time for investors to consider a cautious approach. Those looking at tech stocks should be wary of the AI sector, as notable investors like Paul Singer are waving red flags about inflated valuations, especially in stocks like Nvidia. Meanwhile, the defense sector, with its rising interest, promises potential opportunities if geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Always keep an eye on government spending dynamics as they directly influence these markets. For those considering housingrelated stocks, recent boosts in mortgage applications might suggest upcoming movement in the housing sector as rates drop. Stocks like Howmet Aerospace are interesting underdogs showing resilience and strong performance; their focus on cash flow and innovation could make them a solid addition to a diversified portfolio. In closing, remember to keep your portfolios diverse and your investment strategies sharp—just like a good pair of scissors, they cut through uncertainty! And no matter what the market throws at us, we'll stay right here, ready to ride the storm. That's it for today's episode of 'Spy Trader.' I'm Bullish Bob, reminding you that in trading—and in life—the best gains often come from the toughest challenges. Keep calm, trade on, and I’ll see you in a few hours for our next update!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #998. Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader, your goto financial insights podcast where we break down the market buzz and the noteworthy moves in the S&P 500. It’s March 4th, 2025, and the time is 5:00 PM. I’m your host, Buzz McBuffet, here to bring you the latest scoops with a sprinkle of humor and a dash of insight, keeping you informed and entertained. Today, we’ve got a packed episode as we dissect the ripples in the market, influenced by trade tensions, tech sector woes, and the fascinating moves within the S&P 500. So, let’s dive right into it! Kicking things off, the market today has been quite the rollercoaster. The S&P 500 dipped 1.22%, landing at 5,778.15. The drop aligns with the implementation of new tariffs under President Trump, which have intensified global trade skirmishes and rattled investors’ nerves. The tariffs have driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,300 points over two days, causing quite a bit of market chatter. Amidst the downturn, there are still intriguing stories to unpack. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) saw a remarkable surge of 9.66%, thanks to solidified Bitcoin strategies and a fortifying quarterly cash dividend. On the tech side, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) managed a rise of 1.94% with their formidable fourthquarter earnings, showcasing the allure of cybersecurity even in rocky times. And, in a surprise move, Credo Technology Group (CRDO) leaped 7.74%, all eyes on them for stellar earnings. On a less cheerful note, Best Buy (BBY) saw a sharp downturn of about 13.30% as tariffinduced price hikes loom large. Tesla (TSLA), too, hit a pothole, falling 4.43%, mirroring significant declines in Chinamade EV sales. Fluctuating trade conditions seem to be leaving marks across different sectors, painting a vivid picture of a market under pressure. This brings us to the analysis part. With the tariffs from Canada, China, and Mexico stirring the pot, market volatility is the norm. We’re observing financials, basic materials, and healthcare gaining traction, while tech stocks are on more shaky ground due to these precise geopolitical turbulences. Now, let's talk trading recommendations. In such volatile times, it’s crucial to pivot towards sectors that exhibit resilience. Stocks in financial services and basic materials sectors appear promising as they attract increasing investor interest. Holding on to tech stocks like NVIDIA could be a gamble, given the volatility, but longterm prospects suggest there might be gains as the landscape stabilizes. For the cautious investor, considering companies adapting to these geopolitical shifts smartly, like MSTR with its strong digital asset play, could be a fortified move. On the contrary, companies overly dependent on international tariffs, such as in manufacturing and automotive, might need a wary eye. Ultimately, navigating today's market reminds me of a joke: What do you call a bankrupt Santa? Saint Nickelless. It's a wild ride out there! To wrap it up, stay vigilant, keep a diversified portfolio, and remember, the market might be a seesaw today, but with strategic plays and patience, we can find our balance. Thanks for tuning into Spy Trader. Join me, Buzz McBuffet, for our next episode as we continue to slice through the noise and deliver those golden trading insights. Stay smart, stay profitable, and keep the humor alive in your trading journey. Till next time, happy investing!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #997. Hello, and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader, your goto podcast for the latest trends and insights from the world of finance. I'm your host, the evercurious Penny Stocks—but you can call me Penny for short! It's currently March 4th, 2025, 11:00 AM, and we've got plenty to unpack today, especially focusing on our favorite benchmark, the S&P 500. But first, ever wonder what you call a bankrupt Santa? That's right—Saint Nickelless! Now, let's dive into today's happenings. The stock market is experiencing quite the turbulent time today, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.73%. This decline is part of a broader downward trend we're seeing in reaction to the new tariffs implemented by the US on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. As a result, sectors like financials, energy, and consumer discretionary are having a tough go while real estate manages to hold its ground a bit better. Key news breaking within the S&P 500 includes Repligen's acquisition of the MASS desktop portfolio from 908 Devices for a cool $70 million in cash. This strategic purchase is expected to boost Repligen's biopharmaceutical capabilities, fortifying its position in a rapidly expanding market. After the announcement, 908 Devices saw its stock price jump an impressive 71.7%, a clear sign of investor confidence in the deal. Meanwhile, from a sector perspective, biotechnology continues to show strength. This is noteworthy as the S&P 500 includes several key players in this industry. Investors are starting to see the potential for longterm growth, driven by the demand for advanced analytics in bioprocessing technologies. In contrast, the entertainment giant Sphere Entertainment finds itself in a tricky situation, as their stock dips 14% despite a positive earnings report and a forwardlooking management team. This suggests a disconnect between market sentiment and underlying business performance, offering a potential buying opportunity for valueseeking investors. Now, let's pivot to some trading recommendations. Given the state of the market, I’d suggest taking a closer look at biotechnology stocks within the S&P 500. Companies with robust R&D pipelines and strategic acquisitions, like Repligen, are likely to benefit from the growing demand in bioprocess tech. For those interested in more defensive plays, consider stocks within the real estate sector, which have shown resilience amid this market turmoil. On the flip side, caution is advised with automakers affected by the tariffs. Stocks like General Motors and Ford could continue to face pressure as the economic implications of the tariffs unfold. And while bargain hunters might be eyeing stocks like Sphere Entertainment after their drop, it’s crucial to weigh the shortterm volatility against longterm growth prospects. To sum it up, we're navigating rough seas in the market today. Yet, as opportunities arise within the shipwreck, staying informed, diversified, and adaptive can be your lifeboat to better returns. As we steer through these market waves, continue tuning into Spy Trader for the latest strategies and insights. That wraps up this episode, folks! Keep your portfolios sharp and your wits sharper. Until next time, I'm Penny Stocks, signing off on Spy Trader. Happy trading!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #996. Welcome to another episode of "Spy Trader," your goto source for insightful analysis and the latest news impacting the S&P 500. I'm your host, Bull Bronson, and today is Tuesday, March 4th, 2025, at 5:00 AM. We've got a jampacked episode filled with all things markets and stocks, so let's dive in! To kick things off, we're seeing a couple of significant moves in the S&P 500, thanks to the dynamic developments in a few sectors. Bear Creek Mining Corporation's decision to initiate a strategic review got the market's attention. With support from major shareholders Sandstorm Gold and Equinox Gold, Bear Creek is exploring options that range from mergers to asset sales. However, whisperings of their $93.2 million working capital deficiency have investors on their toes—just like a stockbroker predicting "bull" weather when it's clearly raining. These financial issues raise cautionary flags, particularly in the S&P 500's material sector, which tends to get jittery with any hint of instability. Elsewhere, On Holding AG just laced up and sprinted past expectations, reporting strong earnings that have left investors bullish. With a reported 35.7% increase in sales yearonyear and stunning growth across directtoconsumer sales channels, ON Holding’s robust market performance has them flying high. This could encourage companies within the S&P 500 to rethink their ecommerce strategies, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector. Adding to the mix, Bybit’s recordbreaking crypto hack of $1 billion in Ethereum, allegedly tied to North Korea's infamous Lazarus Group, casts a shadow over companies in the S&P 500 with significant crypto exposure. The hack underscores growing security concerns—an unsettling reminder that volatility in digital assets can ripple into traditional markets as well. Turning our focus toward trading recommendations, investors might consider keeping a close watch on companies within the materials sector, especially those like Bear Creek, which could represent opportunities for portfolio diversification if the strategic review results in asset sales or mergers. The potential restructuring of key players might set precedents and could be a signal for similar moves within the sector. Considering On Holding AG’s stellar performance, it might be wise to look into retail and consumer discretionary stocks that are successfully leveraging directtoconsumer strategies and showcasing similar growth trajectories. These companies may point toward a broader trend that savvy investors can capitalize on. Lastly, given the recent cyber disruptions, some caution is warranted for stocks linked to crypto and blockchain technology. These sectors might face increased scrutiny and regulatory challenges, potentially slowing down growth prospects temporarily but also offering a chance for tactical investments in cybersecurity solutions. In summary, today's insights remind us how interconnected and multifaceted the S&P 500 landscape truly is. Market sentiments swirling around essential minerals, consumer spending habits, or the vulnerabilities of digital currencies emphasize the need to keep our eyes wide open. Stay vigilant and invest wisely! Thanks for tuning into "Spy Trader" with me, Bull Bronson. Remember, as much as we love to predict the future, sometimes even the most bullish forecasts can get rained out. Until next time, stay sharp traders!…
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #995. Welcome to another exciting episode of 'Spy Trader', the podcast where we help you make sense of the chaotic world of the financial markets, with a focus on the big players in the S&P 500. It’s March 3rd, 2025, at 5 PM, and I’m your host, Barry Bullish, ready to dive into the latest market happenings and bring some sanity to your trading strategies. Remember, why don't investment advisors play cards? Too many risks. Alright, let's shuffle the deck and get started! Today we’re unraveling the multiple layers of stock market complexity, unpacking the recent tariffs, and exploring the ongoing volatility in tech stocks, all while staying firmly rooted in what matters to you as an S&P 500 investor. Let’s jump straight into the key news that’s shaking up our favorite index. First up, we have quite the brew storm from the new tariffs rolled out by President Trump, particularly targeting imports from our neighbors Canada and Mexico, and even reaching across the globe to China. These tariffs are set to raise the U.S. average tariff rate to Depressionera levels, about 20%. That’s bound to leave quite the ripple effect on the S&P 500, as companies that are heavily reliant on imported goods will likely feel the pinch. As we know, when supply chains get tangled, it’s not just logistics that suffer—it's profit margins, stock prices, you name it. The market reaction has been swift and severe. The S&P 500 tumbled by around 1.8%, ending the day lower at 5,849.72. This reflects the uncertainty and anxiety swirling among investors as they digest the implications of these trade policies. Companies in sectors like manufacturing and tech—particularly those with intricate supply chains—are standing in the eye of this storm. Now, let’s hit the tech sector, where we’ve got a seesaw of sentiments. Despite showing resilience with strong earnings from companies like GitLab, which outperformed analysts’ expectations, the broader tech market saw a dip dragged down by heavyweight declines like that of NVIDIA, which took a hit of 8.69% due to geopolitical tensions affecting AI tech sales to China. And let's not overlook SoundHound AI, which swung wildly before closing down 4.6%, as investors weighed the risks of high AI valuations. Zooming out a bit further, there’s a fascinating development in Hong Kong, where the local financial markets are on an upward trajectory thanks to an economic stimulus from China and growing interests from global players. This trend could eventually draw more foreign investments, potentially benefiting U.S. companies looking for avenues of growth and partnerships abroad. In light of all this, how should an S&P 500 investor plot their course? I'd recommend a balanced approach in these turbulent times, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and diversified exposure to different economic zones. Here are a few specific trading ideas: 1. Consider Tech with Caution: GitLab’s strong earnings highlight that innovation and strategic focus on AI can shield companies somewhat from broader market slumps. If you’re looking to buy, target firms with strong earnings performance and clear strategic outlooks like GitLab. But beware of the hyped and volatile ones like certain AI stocks, whose valuations seem to hang by a thread. 2. Shift Some Weight to Consumer Staples: As tariffinduced price hikes proceed, consumer staples might become the safe harbor for investors due to their steady demand even in fluctuating economic climates. 3. Scout for Opportunities in Commodity Stocks: With geopolitical tensions simmering and trade policies impacting traditional logistics channels, resource and mining firms like those focusing on domestic supply chains could gain a bit of a wind here. In conclusion, remember to keep your eyes peeled for evolving trade talks and fiscal policies influencing the macroeconomic environment. Stay diversified and don't shy away from tactically shifting your allocations if the situation demands. Thanks for tuning into 'Spy Trader' today. Keep your trading wits sharp and emotions calmer than a bunny in a lettuce patch. Until next time, keep your portfolio as diversified as my joke collection. Stay bullish, stay informed!…
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