November 23, 2024 | SEC Changes, CEO of MicroStrategy, Housing Market, IRA Income Limits, Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) & Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilsey

Changes in the SEC under Trump that you should know

There will be many changes under Trump, but for investors the SEC, which is also known as the Securities and Exchange Commission could be a big one. The current head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, is likely gone for sure. He has been tough on Wall Street and even tougher on cryptocurrencies. It is likely Trump will appoint a new SEC chairperson who will want to have less control over Wall Street. One name on that list is Hester Pierce. She was appointed by Trump in his first term and is one of two current Republican commissioners. She also voted against most of Gary Gensler’s initiatives and is much friendlier towards Wall Street. That doesn’t mean everything will run wild and in particular, she still would like to see regulation for the cryptocurrency business. It seems she disagrees with both Gensler and Trump-appointed predecessor, Jay Clayton, who sued crypto startups that didn’t register their products as securities. Instead, she would rather see new regulations for crypto’s technology. Her approach would be different than Gensler, but it seems that she still wants to protect the investor by using stronger regulations. One rule in the works that may not make it into the books that had much controversy was forcing companies to disclose climate related risks. The SEC voluntarily put the rule on hold while it is litigated. Another one in litigation is for rules that hedge funds and brokers must report on short positions and stocks lent for short selling. Unless these two can pass before the new administration takes over in January, I don’t believe they will have any chance of surviving. There are also other rules in litigation that are in limbo that will probably be dropped next year. Be sure to stay tuned to the Smart Investing Show for updates and changes in regulations by the SEC, as I’m quite confident it will look very different next year!

Is Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, a genius or a crazy man?

If you’re not familiar with MicroStrategy, their symbol is MSTR. Their CEO is famous for not just buying bitcoin, but leveraging everything he can to invest all the assets into bitcoin. I listened to a podcast that Mr. Saylor did recently and I was shocked at many things he said. If you follow us on a regular basis, you know we’re not advocates of investing in cryptocurrencies or bitcoin, but this CEO takes it to the extremes on the other side. The company’s financial statements look like a disaster, I’m surprised they are still in business. Mr. Saylor stated they just borrowed billions of dollars to purchase $4.6 billion in bitcoin, which brings their bitcoin holdings up to about $40 billion. The company only has $60 million in cash. If you do the math, MicroStrategy currently owns about 1.6% of the market value of all the bitcoin. With all the rumors floating around about the US government being an advocate of bitcoin and perhaps even setting up a bitcoin reserve, the price of bitcoin is now around $100,000. Mr. Saylor was laughing as he spoke about the current value of bitcoin at $1.8 trillion and said he sees it going to $180 trillion in 20 years, at that level the price of one bitcoin would be $13 million. The host of the podcast did a quick analysis and said based on that projection, the market cap of your stock, which is currently $89 billion would be worth roughly $10.5 trillion in 20 years. The response was, yes that’s what the math says. The only reason I could come up with why Mr. Saylor is so optimistic is he feels in 20 years 7% of all the world’s money will be in bitcoin. I have read from many professors and experts on the global economy that have said this will never happen because governments will not be able to control their own economy. He also stated that bitcoin should be the world currency and in 20 years there should be $500 trillion in digital assets. I’ve been in the investment world now for over 40 years and none of this makes any sense to me. I do believe there will be a major storm someday in the future. As far as investing in the stock MSTR, the company has no earnings, no cash flow and nearly a 16% short holding betting on a stock decline. The stock has a 52 week low of about $44 a share vs a high of $505 a share and currently trades around $440 a share. I have to say this is not a company, but more of a management company of a non-diversified asset or a leveraged bet all in bitcoin.

The housing market has changed

It used to be couples would get married and buy a house in their late 20s, but now because of a different lifestyle and higher prices for homes, first time buyers are now nearly 40 years old. I also found it interesting that there are now more single people buying homes. Single women are generally about six years older than single men when buying homes. However, roughly 20% of single women are first time home buyers, which is more than double their male counterparts. People in their early 60s have become the most active in the current housing market. This is the generation that scratched and saved and sacrificed to buy a home back in the 1980s. Even then houses were not that affordable, not to mention interest rates looked a whole lot different! But now those buyers, some of which have accumulated close to 40 years of equity have benefited handsomely and account for a big portion of the $35 trillion in home equity across the US. For those looking to buy, there are some signs of relief in home prices with some areas in Texas and Florida that were not too long ago very hot markets starting to see price declines. I feel it could take another couple years to get a more normal housing market, especially with about 25% of people having a mortgage on their home of 3% or less. With such a low rate, they would probably be more likely to remodel or do an addition rather than sell their house.

Beware of IRA Income Limits

Saving money is obviously a great thing, but it is important to be aware of the income limits when making both Traditional IRA and Roth IRA contributions. Contributions to IRAs can be made at any age, but you need W-2 or self-employment income to contribute. However, if your total income from all sources is too large, this may prevent you from making contributions as well. With Traditional IRAs, you can make contributions at any income level, but your ability to deduct those contributions is phased out if your income is too high, assuming you have access to an employer retirement plan like a 401(k). Since getting a tax deduction is one of the main benefits of a traditional contribution, high-income earners would likely want to fund a different account instead. For a single filer this phase out begins at $77,000, and for married filers this begins at $123,000. If your spouse has access to a workplace retirement plan but you do not, your phase out for traditional IRA contributions begins at $230,000. Roth IRAs are subject to different limits. For single filers the ability to contribute begins to be phased out when income reaches $146,000 and for married filers at $230,000. So with traditional IRAs, your income determines if the contribution is deductible, with Roth IRAs your income determines if you can make the contribution at all. Unfortunately, I see people making Roth IRA contributions when they aren’t eligible to all the time. This can happen if you are used to making a Roth contribution every year and eventually through raises or bonuses or whatever your income exceeds the limit without you knowing. Now with Roth IRAs, there is a workaround called a Backdoor Roth contribution that can be used to make Roth contributions when income is over the limit. To do this effectively, the contributor cannot have any Traditional IRA money. If they do, they would need to roll it into a workplace plan like a 401(k) before implementing the Backdoor Roth contribution. The Backdoor Roth involves making a non-deductible contribution to a Traditional IRA, which again can be done at any income level, followed by a conversion into a Roth IRA. Conversions do not have income limits and because the initial contribution to the Traditional IRA was not deductible, it is not taxable when converted to the Roth IRA.

Companies Discussed: Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) & Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)