OIES Podcast – The implications of the end of Ukraine gas transit

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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Jack Sharples about the implications of the end of the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The podcast starts with a discussion about the conditions that would need to have been met for the contract to continue and why they failed to materialise and in particular considers the attitude of EU member states and the Commission. We then look at the impact of the closing of the Ukraine route and the loss of a further 12 bcma of Russian gas to the European market, considering how alternative supplies have been sourced, what direction flows are now taking and what the impact on prices has been. We also discuss the potential impact on gas storage levels in Europe at the end of winter and the outlook for gas prices in the summer months as storage is re-filled. Finally we look at the likelihood, or lack of it, that Russian gas could return to Europe via the Ukraine route and whether the Turkish Stream pipeline would be able to act as a replacement for lost volumes.

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