Capitalmind looks at stocks, bonds, funds and the macro to bring you their view on the Indian financial markets. We discuss all things related to investing at our focussed podcast that keeps it simple. For more, go to capitalmind.in and to invest with us, visit capitalmindwealth.com
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Our Annual Q&A Part 2 – Happy New Year!
Manage episode 458826980 series 3624741
Вміст надано McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією McAlvany Weekly Commentary або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
Morgan Lewis answers your question on Gold Recycling/Dollar Recycling Philip Wortman on Crypto and Gold What indicators does David McAlvany look at consistently? Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Happy New Year! I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, I sure enjoyed the questions last week, Dave, and look forward to what you have to say on the questions this week. We're never disappointed, are we? David: No, and I'm grateful to be closing out another year with the Weekly Commentary. Kevin, thank you for your efforts throughout the year. I enjoy the engagement with our audience and am grateful for the questions that have been sent in. You know, some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: And I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what, let's just go ahead and get started. Jeff asks, "Do you see the stock market correcting, and if so, when will that happen? And will it be a minor correction or a large pullback?" The second part of the question is the commercial real estate market, Dave, in America. "Is it still in trouble? If so, how will that affect the banking system? And thanks for your efforts in putting the weekly podcast together." That was Jeff. David: The answer is yes. No idea when we have a market correction. We just know the context is set, and by any measure valuation, it will happen. When is, of course, the billion-dollar question. A '30s-style crash? I think that's less likely. A '70s-style crash, where performance in real inflation-adjusted terms ends up over a course of time being as grave as the 1930s? I think that kind of pressured environment is more probable. So it's either large and all at once, or less extreme—minor, if you want to think of it in those terms—extended, and excruciating over time because of the impact of inflation. Commercial real estate, there are really big refinance needs in 2025. Estimates are between one and two trillion dollars, and so it makes sense that we would see pressure in commercial real estate. But I think it obviously depends on liquidity dynamics at the time. Your ability to refinance that debt, if it is with commercial lenders or if it's in the private markets, it all depends on the current liquidity dynamics and financial market conditions at that time. Part of the commercial real estate market is finding a bottom, part of the commercial real estate market has yet to materially correct. So if we assume that there is another leg or another segment within that asset class—commercial real estate—then I think your banks—commercial banks—will see a lot of stress on their CRE portfolios. Kevin: Dave, this next question reminds me of a conversation I had with a client the other day. He said he's got a Wednesday morning ritual. He pours a cup of coffee, he listens to the Commentary every Wednesday, and I was surprised at how many people do that. They have rituals for actually sitting down and listening. So James—this question reminded me of this—he said, "It's been great listening to the show over the last few months. It's become part of my Wednesday morning routine at this point. I've got a few questions, no pressure to answer any or all of them." Dave, I know you're probably going to answer them, so I'll ask you the first one. "Are there any often overlooked market indicators that you'll be paying attention to in 2025?" David: Well, I love the rituals. It also reminds me of a friend of ours, a client of ours in Mexico, and that's a common thing. Friday evening at the end of a work week, popcorn, a glass of wine, and the Weekly Commentary. Kevin: That sounds like fun. David: And he and his wife have been doing that for the better part of 15 years. Kevin: Wow. Wow. So what are you looking at in 2025? David: Yeah. Yeah,
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ПоширитиManage episode 458826980 series 3624741
Вміст надано McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією McAlvany Weekly Commentary або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
Morgan Lewis answers your question on Gold Recycling/Dollar Recycling Philip Wortman on Crypto and Gold What indicators does David McAlvany look at consistently? Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Happy New Year! I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, I sure enjoyed the questions last week, Dave, and look forward to what you have to say on the questions this week. We're never disappointed, are we? David: No, and I'm grateful to be closing out another year with the Weekly Commentary. Kevin, thank you for your efforts throughout the year. I enjoy the engagement with our audience and am grateful for the questions that have been sent in. You know, some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: And I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what, let's just go ahead and get started. Jeff asks, "Do you see the stock market correcting, and if so, when will that happen? And will it be a minor correction or a large pullback?" The second part of the question is the commercial real estate market, Dave, in America. "Is it still in trouble? If so, how will that affect the banking system? And thanks for your efforts in putting the weekly podcast together." That was Jeff. David: The answer is yes. No idea when we have a market correction. We just know the context is set, and by any measure valuation, it will happen. When is, of course, the billion-dollar question. A '30s-style crash? I think that's less likely. A '70s-style crash, where performance in real inflation-adjusted terms ends up over a course of time being as grave as the 1930s? I think that kind of pressured environment is more probable. So it's either large and all at once, or less extreme—minor, if you want to think of it in those terms—extended, and excruciating over time because of the impact of inflation. Commercial real estate, there are really big refinance needs in 2025. Estimates are between one and two trillion dollars, and so it makes sense that we would see pressure in commercial real estate. But I think it obviously depends on liquidity dynamics at the time. Your ability to refinance that debt, if it is with commercial lenders or if it's in the private markets, it all depends on the current liquidity dynamics and financial market conditions at that time. Part of the commercial real estate market is finding a bottom, part of the commercial real estate market has yet to materially correct. So if we assume that there is another leg or another segment within that asset class—commercial real estate—then I think your banks—commercial banks—will see a lot of stress on their CRE portfolios. Kevin: Dave, this next question reminds me of a conversation I had with a client the other day. He said he's got a Wednesday morning ritual. He pours a cup of coffee, he listens to the Commentary every Wednesday, and I was surprised at how many people do that. They have rituals for actually sitting down and listening. So James—this question reminded me of this—he said, "It's been great listening to the show over the last few months. It's become part of my Wednesday morning routine at this point. I've got a few questions, no pressure to answer any or all of them." Dave, I know you're probably going to answer them, so I'll ask you the first one. "Are there any often overlooked market indicators that you'll be paying attention to in 2025?" David: Well, I love the rituals. It also reminds me of a friend of ours, a client of ours in Mexico, and that's a common thing. Friday evening at the end of a work week, popcorn, a glass of wine, and the Weekly Commentary. Kevin: That sounds like fun. David: And he and his wife have been doing that for the better part of 15 years. Kevin: Wow. Wow. So what are you looking at in 2025? David: Yeah. Yeah,
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Would Regime Change In Iran Effectively Solve The Nuclear Deal? Will The Middle East War Spread? Gold Replacing T-Bills As Flight Captial Preference "We talked about the breakout in silver, and I think silver more than even the gold market is your tell for the Western investor finally saying, maybe we do need some version of a plan B. What is our best way of navigating the days, quarters, years ahead where volatility is normal, and where uncertainty becomes what you get? It's the norm." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, welcome back for just a little while. Dave, I know you had the family reunion last week. Well, while the world was erupting, I mean, Israel going to war with Iran, that's a first, isn't it? David: It's made its way into a few of the conversations. But most of the time we were just playing, which was super fun. The house we stayed at had a foosball table, and my minor in college was foosball, or should have been because I would've gotten decent marks in that. Actually developed a lower back problem, I played so much. And still leaning towards being critical of my kids playing video games, and yet I had my own outlet. Kevin: Yeah. Yeah, they called it foosball at that time. Well, some of the events of last week, it was interesting watching the Army's 250th year anniversary birthday. That was impressive, and at the same time, of course, the detractors were trying to make it look like there were huge protests nationwide. That sort of fell flat on its face. But the situation over in the Middle East was really volatile. And this is the first time we're actually seeing Israel being hit back pretty hard. Obviously, they took out many, many top, top, not only missile launchers, but military leaders, but we're seeing the makings of a war. I mean, how is that affecting the markets, Dave? David: Well, if you linger on last week's market action, you will observe a sensitivity to a world of unknowns and stress. Pretty normal. Uncertainties this time of a geopolitical nature. And then to start the week this week after an incredibly violent weekend in the Middle East, calm quickly returns. So the conflict is far from over, but it would appear that traders have determined that the effects will be manageable. Time will tell if that determination is naive or if it's on the money. Kevin: Well, and I'd like to talk about what are the vulnerabilities like the Strait of Hormuz, and so let's go to the price of oil for a minute. David: For one thing, it is the price of oil which is in this case the potential disruptor to economic growth globally and a stimulant to inflation. We had the May CPI and PPI numbers last week, both barely higher. Both below expectations. And the tariff concerns are the longer lingering concerns if you're talking to economists these days. Folks at Goldman Sachs still think we'll finish the year closer to 3%, and of course, they're looking at PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure. So tariff concerns have a longer lingering effect on inflation expectations for a one, three, and five year time frame. And as we've stated previously, the Democrats when polled in the University of Michigan numbers expect higher numbers than anyone else. And is that a tariff concern or is it just a concern about the current administration? They expect now north of 10% inflation on a one-year time frame. Seems a little high. But Israel impacting oil prices is a truer immediate pressure point for inflation statistics as missiles fall on Iran. And while the price of oil did rise in dramatic fashion last week, it's not yet a moonshot, which would take the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to get oil traders really concerned. Kevin: Well, and I remember, it was about three decades ago, when the threat of the Strait of Hormuz being shut down, that was a huge threat to the global oil economy.…
The white medals lead the markets this week, supported by the tightening supply and industrial demand. Silver surged up to over 5%, smashing through the $35 barrier, while platinum shot up 13%. Palladium showed strong movement as well with a 7.5% gain. As the dollar decline continues, commodities are showing signs of a breakout. Further reinforcing the hard asset shift seen in the markets. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of recording Wednesday, June 11: The price of gold is down about 0.5% from our last recording, to $3,355 an ounce. The price of silver is up just over 5% from our recording last week, sitting at $36.25 an ounce. Platinum rose up about 13% on the week, sitting at about $1,232. Palladium up about 7.5%, currently sitting at $1072 per ounce. Now taking a quick snapshot at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up about 0.75%, currently sitting at 6,024 and right at the bottom of the very key trading range. The US dollar index is down about 0.25% over the last week, sitting at 98.80. White Metals Outperforming Gold Over the past week, silver and platinum have significantly outperformed gold, with silver surging over 5% to break through the $35 mark and platinum spiking 13% to $1,232. Palladium also saw a robust 7.5% gain. These moves are not isolated; they reflect a broader commodities rally, with platinum in particular benefiting from persistent supply deficits—production has lagged demand by 500,000 to 750,000 ounces annually for three consecutive years. This structural shortfall is finally being priced in, offering hope to long-term holders who have waited years for such a move. Gold Holds Steady, Awaiting a Breakout Gold has remained relatively stationary, down about half a percent for the week, but technical analysis shows a potentially bullish setup. After a correction from its all-time high in April, gold broke out above its declining channel and has since retested that breakout level, now acting as support. The next technical milestone is a move above $3,400, which could set the stage for a retest of the previous all-time high and potentially new highs. Notably, the anticipated seasonal summer decline in gold may not materialize, suggesting continued strength in the current bull market. Platinum, Silver Ratio Trades The dramatic outperformance of white metals has created compelling ratio trade opportunities. Platinum, historically priced at twice the value of gold, is now only a third of gold’s price. Even a move toward parity would present a strong case for swapping platinum into gold and increasing total ounces held. Similarly, the gold-to-silver ratio, which recently exceeded 100:1 (a rare occurrence), has begun to contract, now at 90:1. Historical precedent shows that such extremes in the ratio often precede major silver rallies—recent years have seen silver jump 30–80% following similar setups. If the ratio returns to its long-term average (around 65:1), silver could approach $47 an ounce even if gold prices remain steady. Commodities Reawakening The broader commodity complex is showing signs of life after years of underperformance relative to equities. The S&P Commodity Index has bottomed against the S&P 500, signaling a potential multi-year uptrend for commodities. This is supported by central banks globally increasing their gold reserves amid ongoing currency devaluation and competitive “currency wars.” The undervaluation of commodities, especially precious metals, positions them as attractive assets in a world where fiat currencies are being systematically weakened. Dollar Weakness, Inflation Surprises, and Policy Shifts The US dollar continues its downward trend, now below 99, which historically supports higher precious metals prices. Despite recent CPI data showing muted inflation, the panel notes that inflation is likely to creep higher in the coming months, especially as the effects of tariffs and policy changes are fel...…
Did Anyone In Government Read The Big Beautiful Bill? "Genius Act": A Crypto Version Of Fiat Dollar Tomahawk 6 By Broadcom Threatens NVIDIA Share Value "The gold market has been driven by central bank demand, and one of the reasons why I wanted to highlight some of the moves in silver today and the change in the ratio in silver is because the general public is entering the market, and this is our confirmation. We've been looking for this for months. Yes, as the gold-silver ratio shrinks, as silver begins to outperform and break out above the 34, $35 an ounce level, this is the next leg of a significant bull market in metals." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, it was such an honor to be at your father's surprise party on Friday night, and we had great food, thanks to you guys, but when it was time to roast Don, your dad is such a fun guy because he's very loyal, loves the people around him, really respects them. So, the roast as we went on, these are guys who've known him, really almost all of our adult lives. As we started to roast, we realized it's not a roast at all. The things we said about your dad and the impact that he had made in our lives, he wept. He realized that there was such a deep reality. Let's just put it this way, he started a business in gold and silver, but the quality and the integrity of his life really does, it represents gold and silver. It's pure gold and silver. David: To his chagrin, I was sharing with him that when he enters a room, my blood pressure goes up, and he thought, man, this is really tough to hear that I have such a negative impact on my son. And I thought, no, actually this is who he is. There is a bit of an uncomfortability. He sees things with clarity and says them with clarity. And sometimes being willing or able to speak the truth brings in uncomfortability with it, not intentionally, it's just who he is when he's operating in his strengths, and he often is, that's an impact that he has. There's an aha moment and sometimes the aha is relating to the national debt or relating to public policy or relating to something that he's just speaking off the cuff, but which gets to the heart of the matter. And it's been a remarkable gift. It's been a blessing to us as a family to have that as a part of our family for decades and decades. So, 85 years old, 85 years young, frankly. Kevin: Yeah. That's true. No, he's that type of personality when he walks into the room, there's a required response. You believe that he has a mission that's larger than what we've been looking at, and he always has carried things on like that. You guys went on over to Branson, Missouri. It's going to be a larger reunion. I think you've got quite a bit of family coming in. David: That's right. We're in Branson for the McAlvany-Bowers family reunion. My parents like us to get together every other year, and this year we're overlooking Table Rock Lake, a stone's throw away from Silver Dollar City and the wild roller coasters of the 1880s theme park. On that note, I can't help myself, silver in the 1880s was a common expression of sound money. The term sound money referred to the sound which a gold or silver coin made, a clear ringing sound when struck against another piece of metal. It was a sign of integrity, a solid ringing told the holder that the currency had not been debased by anything else. So, take a 100-ounce silver bar today, hit it with another piece of metal, like a 16 penny nail, and it sings. If the bar has been drilled and filled with lead, you get a thud and not a ring. It's simple, but true. Debasement was something anyone could recognize then, and it's not so easy today in an age of paper or fiat currency. We think inflation is normal. The inflation target of 2%, popularized by the central bank of New Zealand in the 1990s, maybe we're running a little hotter than 2% now.…
Gold’s rally continues, up over 3% from last week, and silver is not to be outdone, rising almost 4%. We are seeing signs in the S&P and Dow of reaching potential tops following May’s gains. Demand for gold remains globally, with soaring debt, government spending, and geopolitical tensions showcasing the safe haven found in gold. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of recording Wednesday, June 4: The price of gold is up 3.5% from our last recording, to $3,378 an ounce. The price of silver is up 3.8% from our recording last week, sitting at $34.50 an ounce. A couple other Platinum up about 1% on the week, sitting at about $1,080, but it did have a pretty big range, moving up and down as much as 5%. Palladium up about 3%, currently sitting at $997 per ounce. Now taking a quick snapshot at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up about 0.5%, currently sitting at 5,970 and right at the bottom of the very key trading range. The DJIA is up about 0.5% sitting at about 42,400. The US dollar index is down about 1.5% over the last week, sitting at 98.8. Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Demand It’s no secret that global tensions have a direct impact on precious metals, and this week was a textbook example. Nearly all of the week’s gains in gold and silver happened on June 2, right after news broke of a dramatic drone attack targeting Russian bombers in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The hosts pointed out that these bombers are deliberately parked in visible locations for satellite surveillance, a legacy of arms treaties, but the real concern is: who passed along the targeting information to Ukraine? Was it just Ukraine, or did Western allies or even NATO play a role? This uncertainty is exactly what keeps investors flocking to gold and silver. Geopolitical "saber-rattling" is not limited to Eastern Europe. Ongoing instability in the Middle East also continues to support a risk premium in precious metals. Historically, gold and silver have acted as safe havens during periods of international conflict, and current events are reinforcing that role. Global Debt: Losing Faith in the System. Underlying the recent rally in precious metals is a broader and more structural issue: ballooning global debt. Total worldwide debt now exceeds $324 trillion, or roughly 335% of global GDP—a figure that continues to rise as governments, particularly the US, pursue aggressive deficit spending. The US is poised to raise its debt ceiling by another $4 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the new legislation could add over $5 trillion to the national debt, which already stands at $37 trillion. Why does this matter for gold? Because people aren’t buying gold out of fear or greed — but because they’re losing faith in the system. Gold’s role as a hedge against currency depreciation is underscored by the fact that the US dollar has lost about 75% of its purchasing power in the last decade, with gold prices doubling over the same period. Both retail and institutional investors are watching governments inflate away savings and rack up deficits with no end in sight. The result: gold is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do—protect purchasing power. The Great Shift: From Treasurys to Gold Perhaps the most important—and underreported—trend is the move by big players out of US Treasuries and into gold. And it's not just retail investors; sovereign nations, central banks, and major financial institutions like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are all boosting their gold holdings. A key driver is Section 899 of the new US bill, which essentially discourages foreign entities from holding US assets, including Treasuries. The goal is to weaken the dollar and make US manufacturing more competitive, but the side effect is clear: if foreigners are pushed out of Treasuries, they need a new reserve asset, and gold fits the bill. The bond market,…
Jamie Dimon Says Bond Market Will Cause Panic In Future Section 899 Of Bill Could Scare Money Out Of Dollar Is Private Equity The New Money Trap "We go back to the 30,000-foot perspective and see that interest rates are the issue for the Treasury Departments in the UK and in the US and in Japan and in many other places. So we have this convergence ahead of us between fiscal mismanagement—and the bond vigilantes are sniffing this out—combine that with financial market frailties, and many of those things are baked into the cake through shadow banking. Then include the weaponization of capital and, at an inflection point—and we are not there, the global markets desire to opt out of risk. Where do you go?" —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, your dad hired me, Dave, back in 1987. He was a 47-year-young man. He was 47 years old. I was 24 at the time. But I can't believe it, this week he turns 85 and he's still going strong. David: Oh, yeah. It'll be good to see him. I know that we'll get some good time, a few shared meals, and then we're off to a family reunion. So, yep, 85 this week, and then on to a little rest and relaxation. It was just fun to be with family. Kevin: I don't know that we're going to talk about these things that we're talking about today with Don because there's so little time, but what would he think about Democrats thinking that inflation going forward is going to be 9.4% and Republicans think it's going to be 1%? Has he ever seen a division like what we're seeing now? David: Well, I think the nature of politics is to be panicked if your people are not in power. And so what is consistent is there's always half the country that's planning on moving to Canada and the other half of the country is figuring that now things are better again, and then it flip-flops. So I think the only difference is the color of your jersey. Kevin: Isn't it funny how we do pick sides? Well, I guess to be objective we probably ought to even that out somewhere in the middle—the expectations of inflation—probably somewhere between 9.4% on the high side and 1% on the low. David: Yeah. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence last week had a positive surprise. Friday's University of Michigan numbers were not as sanguine, but still improved. It was the inflation expectations component that came down, to your point, strikingly different depending on who you ask. One year expectations for Democrats, 9.4% is the annual inflation rate which is expected, and for the GOP, inflation expectations of 1%. So again, this contrast of we're nearing Nirvana or we're nearing some version of hell. Kevin: Well, what do you think about tariffs, then? You think they're going to add to the inflationary impact? David: Well, I think that US inflation metrics— This is where last week was also interesting—and improved, if you're looking at the Fed's favored PCE metric—and tariffs may yet have an inflationary impact. But at least for April, it fell to a four-year low, with the supercore hitting its lowest reading since March of 2021. So when we look at bond markets and we see how cautious they are, it's really not inflation that's the primary pressure point. Fiscal sustainability seems to be the issue. In the US, we had the TLT, which is the 20-Year Bond ETF, lost 3.57% for the month of May. And basically rates go higher, bond prices come down. And that's what the bond mark is suggesting is we have reasons to be concerned, but, as I said earlier, it's not inflation per se. So actually supercore, the reading—if you're looking at month over month—was negative 0.023%, almost a rounding error, but you could read it as deflationary. The Fed is unlikely to do anything about that. They're going to say, "We need more data." Fair enough. And May inflation readings will capture a larger time frame impacted by tariffs.…
Gold kicked the week off dropping just below the $3,300 level, while silver dropped down about 2%. Platinum held onto its strong gain following last week staying near $1,060, though palladium took a sharp drop by over 7%. Copper remained flat overall at $4.60 but is up over 10% from 2020’s high. The S&P 500 inched up 1%, reaching the break point seen in March. Amid economic uncertainty, long-term buyers are turning to gold more and more as confidence in currencies and market stability continues to wane. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, May 28: The price of gold is down 1.5%, from our recording at $3,290. The price of silver declined 2% from a week earlier, sitting at $32.97. Platinum is even on the week, sitting at around $1065. That’s following a significant jump up 11% from the previous week. Palladium is down this week, sinking about 7.5% on the week, at around $957. Copper is sitting at $4.60, down 0.8%. But that’s after a massive trading range over the week. Moving over to the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up about 1% from a week earlier, sitting at around 5,900. The dollar index is hovering just below the 100-level mark, currently sitting at 99.85. There was a nice small run on the dollar, but it’s now pushed back below 100. Gold’s Technical Outlook: Declining Channel and Seasonal Weakness Gold is currently trading in a well-defined declining channel after its recent spike near $3,500. At the time of recording, gold pulled back to around $3,290, showing a classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The technical setup suggests that gold may be heading toward the $3,000 level, where the 200-day moving average and the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement converge. Seasonal trends also point to potential further weakness in June and July, historically softer months for precious metals. For patient investors, this could present a strategic opportunity to add ounces at lower prices before the next leg higher. When multiple technical indicators align, it often marks an attractive entry point for long-term accumulation. Platinum and Palladium Divergence Platinum has broken decisively above palladium, now trading over $100 higher per ounce—a reversal years in the making. This divergence reflects shifting industrial demand and supply dynamics. Meanwhile, copper remains volatile within a broad trading range, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the broader commodity complex. While gold and silver remain the core of most precious metals portfolios, the action in platinum, palladium, and copper underscores the value of diversification and the need to monitor all corners of the metals markets. Central Bank vs. U.S. Retail Demand A defining feature of the current gold market is that it’s being driven by “top-down” buyers—central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors—rather than U.S. retail investors. The Commitment of Traders data and IMF statistics show that central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with gold now backing over 20% of global currency reserves, up from just 9% a decade ago. Meanwhile, U.S. retail investors remain largely on the sidelines, buoyed by strong consumer confidence and distracted by equity market performance. This divergence suggests that the “smart money” is positioning for long-term currency and debt risks, while retail participation could provide additional fuel for gold prices once sentiment shifts. U.S. Debt, Deficits, and Global De-Dollarization Recent headlines have been dominated by Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and a notably weak bond auction, both of which underscore growing global concerns about U.S. debt and deficits. The administration’s stated focus on economic stimulus over fiscal tightening, combined with resistance to meaningful spending cuts, points to persistent structural deficits. The conversation is shifting from just the deficit to the much larg...…
Big Beautiful Spending Bill Will Spend More Than Ever 50% Tariffs On EV... Just Joking? US Dollar Down In Gold - 29% In One Year - 48% In Five Years "The bond market is a mess. The US long bond reached levels last week we haven't seen since July of 2007. The Japanese long bond, at 3.19, reached a record high for an instrument that's only existed since 1999. The UK long bond on Wednesday hit its high since just prior to the blow-up of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Now the British people are dealing with a broader contextual issue, high levels of debt, inflation percolating even higher, and bond investors feeling inadequately compensated for the inflation which is creeping back into the picture. Yields going higher will not end well for your leveraged speculators, will not end well for your equity investors, will not end well for your investor with a high risk appetite." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, Saturday night was really, really special. A guy that I had worked with here with your family for over 30 years, he is now retired, and they came into town because they were riding the bike race, and you graciously invited us all over so that we could just experience that family time again. I know I said, "Well, what can I bring? I said, Debbie and I have gotten a few recent bottles of Caymus wine." And you said, "Oh, well that'll be good. That'll be good. I've got something too that I might be able to share with you." And I'll let you tell the audience what you served. I brought 2022 Caymus wine, red wine, and— David: And 1992 to match. Kevin: Why did you pick '92? David: It was the year that our company moved down from Denver to Durango, and both you and Larry were a part of that move. 12 or 13 families made the trek, but it was a super busy weekend. I can't remember the last time we had social events planned four nights in a row. Kevin: It was very, very special. I'll tell you what, that 1992, not all wines lay down well, but this was a Caymus that was signed by the guy who owned the vineyard. David: Chuck Wagner. Kevin: Yeah, yeah. David: The opportunity to reconnect with a friend that worked with us from 1980 to I think almost 2022. It was amazing. Lots of memories refreshed that night. Last night was different, Memorial Day with a military man, West Point graduating class of 1967. Kevin: Wow, '67. David: We talked about how his class had one of the highest casualty rates of any West Point class in the school's history. Upon graduation getting shipped out to Vietnam, he lost dozens of his classmates, sharp guy. It brought home how dear a price we pay for our military engagements, how costly freedom is. Saturday morning, sort of preceding that. I was on the back porch with my son discussing Just War Theory. He had questions about when it's right to kill a person or engage in conflict, and so I probably bored him to tears with Aristotle and Cicero and Augustine, but to me it's an important conversation as my son considers a career in the military. I think it's poignant. I think my dad was the last person in our family to serve, and so, 16, he's involved in Civil Air Patrol, setting his sights on the corps of cadets at Texas A&M when he finishes high school, and he's motivated like I've never seen him. Kevin: Oh, I know. My wife was saying the same thing. She said, "Wow, he is really, really laser-focused." And that's fine. Yeah, your dad was in the Air Force. So thanks to all the guys who have served this country. Memorial Day is an important day, but let's go to the market volatility because most news outlets right now just want to blame the uncertainty from Trump tariffs, but is that it? David: There is a temptation to see market volatility through the lens of the twists and turns of Trump's tariffs. Certainly it exists. Last week it was 50% tariffs on the EU.…
Gold bounced back from a short-term decline following April’s highs. Platinum pushed up to its highest level in a year, while palladium gained 9%. With shifts in global monetary sentiment, bitcoin shot up to a new high. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, May 21: The price of gold is up about 4%, from our recording last week at $3,318. So we’re seeing a bit of a rebound in the price of gold. The price of silver is also up 4% at around $33.56. Over the past month, it has been up and down about 3%, but it is still looking pretty healthy. Platinum is up a whopping 10.5% over the last week at around $1072. It was last May that we saw the price rise up this high. Palladium is also up, rising 9% on the week, at around $1,037. Moving over to the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% from a week earlier, sitting at 5,842. The dollar index is down 1.3% on the week, currently sitting at 99.65. There was a nice small run on the dollar, but it’s now pushed back below 100. Bitcoin reached an all time high of $108,000. This goes back to the restructuring of the global monetary system — and ultimately, it really reeks of negative news. Precious metals such as silver and copper continue their slow climb supported by industrial demand, while gold sees short-term weakness. Thanks for listening. Gold’s Healthy Technical Pattern From the technical analysis side, the gold price hit that 3 8 2 fibonacci level as we talked about a week or so ago. We've had this really nice little short-term pullback in the gold price, which it has thus far bounced. In the short term, gold is sitting within a nicely compact, declining channel, working its way down. Gold will likely stop around $3,350 and then turn back down. However, if gold breaks above that number, it’s reasonable that it would reach $3,500 or somewhere within $50 of that level. Now it could test that and turn back down. If we don't see any type of breakout movement in gold here, probably within the next week, it's likely we could see gold continue to slide down. And that fits in line with what we typically see in the middle of the year — that is, our summer slump across the board in markets. After a $1,500 rise in gold, we might see a $500 decline. Seasonal and Fundamental Factors The American buyer has not come back into the gold market. The rise in the price of gold is being driven by central banks and Eastern buyers. But we are moving seasonally out of our strong spring market into more of a summer slumber market. So it’s likely that we probably will see a further rally based on the continuing tumultuous US debt. Bonds Sink on Downgrade Moody's downgraded the AAA credit rating of the US on May 16. It’s the last major rating agency to downgrade the US, signaling the country’s mounting debt burden has shifted from a theoretical risk to a constraint on the power and leadership of the economic leader. Without reform, the US debt is projected to reach 156% of the U.S. GDP by the year 2055. Consequently, this has weakened the bond market. Demand for US 20-year bonds at Wednesday’s auction was the lowest since February, according to the Treasury Department. Copper Rally & Ratio Trade Opportunity There have been some big purchases in copper coming out of the Asian market. Dr. Copper is poised to move higher again, and it will pull silver up with it. We see this as a ratio opportunity to move from gold into silver, because we're still flirting with that 100-to-one ratio — a unicorn event. We’ve only seen this a handful of times, and never with premiums being so low that you can actually take advantage of it. Make Your Move Today If you’re ready to start investing in precious metals — or want to add ounces to your existing portfolio — the advisors at McAlvany are eager to help. We’re happy to speak with you on a complimentary, no obligation call. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
Buffett Eyes Japan As A Stronger Currency Trump Is Isolating Iran From Its Perceived Friends Register For Thursday's Webinar "What we will look for as the final element in the international investor trifecta spurring on increased capital flight is when the US economy slows considerably. So if you then combine a slowing economy on top of a dollar in decline and throw in a rising rate environment, regardless of what the Fed is doing at the fed funds rate, you will see money rush out the door." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, for years we've done bank ratings for people, and one of the aspects that we look at with banks is something called hot money. Hot money is money that goes in for a reason, maybe it's a return, and it can come right back out. And so you always have to be careful with hot money because it's not loyal. It's money that could just as easily disappear as it appeared. David: Typically, it's there for some benefit, maybe a yield differential or maybe a Sunbeam toaster. You got it as you walked in the front door, and you walked out with the toaster and your money. It was that fast of a turnaround. Kevin: So here's a question because we're seeing downgrades here in the United States. Is there hot money that has come into the United States that could just as easily leave? David: I think that's what we get to test as the year goes by. We had the Moody's downgrade last week. They complete the trifecta of downgrades, and no, it's not of great consequence. Fitch and S&P concluded that our government was dysfunctional and we had a debt and deficit problem a long time ago. So why it took Moody's so long is more surprising than the downgrade. If any of the three agencies were to take their gradings down two to four notches, now that would be of consequence. Bond yields merely reached to the Wednesday highs, as if to acknowledge the shift, but more as a shrug of indifference than really any acute concern. They actually closed lower on the day of the announcement by 3.2 basis points. And just as a reminder, S&P Global lowered their ratings in 2011. Kevin: So 14 years ago. It sounds like Moody's is a little clueless, like Comey is about messages on the beach. It's like they're a little late to the party. David: I don't know what the numbers mean. Kevin: Yeah, that's right. But okay, so let me ask you though, other countries, the United States is seen as the reserve currency. Good as gold, isn't that the whole idea? The Treasury is supposed to be as good as gold. Do other countries have higher ratings than the United States at this point? Yeah, well, in terms of consequence, there was none. But appearances may over time diminish the sheen of US assets, whether that's Treasuries or stocks or what have you. There are now 10 other countries with higher ratings than the US. The setup in 2011, going back to the S&P downgrade, I think the setup was quite a bit different. The 2011 downgrade coincided with an incredibly weak dollar. It was trading in the seventies, which was actually en route to much higher levels. We were putting in the lows and we've had since then a tremendous move higher. Maybe this time ends up being different. Certainly the backdrop is distinct. If Moody's downgrade coincides with a secular trend of US weakness and lack of foreign support for Treasury purchases, the result will be very different indeed. So the current administration and the desire for reserve managers to diversify out of Treasuries and into gold, that's a hallmark of 2025, and it's somewhat at odds with what the current administration would like to see in terms of lower rates and a lower dollar, because frankly they're just adding fuel to the fire. They're motivating, if you will, those reserve managers to make haste to the exits. Again, this was hardly the case in 2011.…
In this week’s Golden Rule Radio, we unpack gold’s recent correction and explain why it might be healthy for the long-term trend. We look at what’s driving the dollar’s bounce, how CPI surprised markets, and why central banks — not retail investors — are still the biggest force behind gold’s rise. Plus: silver’s price action, key technical levels, and what policy shifts could mean for precious metals next. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, May 14: The price of gold is down about 5%, from our recording last week at $3,170. This is coming off a significant high, scraping $3,500 a couple of weeks ago. The price of silver is flat at around $32. Over the past month, it has been up and down about 3%, but it is still looking pretty healthy. Platinum is about even on the week at around $970. But it is trending upwards. Palladium is down about 2% on the week, at around $950. Moving over to the paper markets… And the S&P 500 is up about 4% from a week earlier, sitting at just under 5,900. The dollar index is up 0.5% on the week, currently sitting at 101.5. That below 100 number we saw back in April breaks a three-year floor in the dollar index. Economic Tight Rope Walk If you go back to the Dollar Index at a Crossroads show from two weeks ago, there was a great image of the inverse correlation between the dollar and the gold price. Is there an expectation of a continued rally? President Trump wants a weaker dollar along with lower inflation. But they’re also trying to improve our exporting and employment numbers without driving inflation significantly higher. So it’s an economic tight rope walk. Part of the reason why the price of gold has come down and the dollar index has increased is because of a lack of a rate cut. The Federal Reserve took the “wait and see” stance on rates, indicating that it’s not likely to cut rates in their next session either. The broader market uncertainty has been driven by tariffs. And now, we have another pause. Trump has declared a 90-day halt on some sectors for those tariffs in regards to negotiations with China. And that news was huge for markets this week. There’s more good news this week… Gold’s Short-Term Correction Gold is now down about 7% since the most recent high, and about 9% since its all time high back in April. As we see it, this correction is a healthy one. If you look back in the short term, gold has been stairstepping up from around 2,650 in January to 3,500. Now the price is sitting at its first major short-term correction, sitting right at or just below 3,200. Now, if you look at the longer term chart of this entire move, you’re finally seeing our first longer term Fibonacci correction, the 3 1 8, which is exactly what it sounds like, 6 1 8. That's about 61% retracement, three steps forward, two steps back, the 3 8 2, that's about a third. So gold has taken three steps forward in the long term and we have finally taken a real step back. CPI Shows Slowing Inflation April’s headline and core (ex-food and energy) Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.2% month-over-month. That was slightly below the expected 0.3% increase expected by the markets. The year-over-year inflation reached its lowest levels since early 2021. This suggests a potential easing of inflation. While there’s been an overall sentiment of “the sky is falling,” that has not happened yet. In fact, the CPI has actually come in better and lower than expected — another reason you should expect gold to pull back. Protect Your Wealth On the McAlvany Weekly Commentary podcast this week, David McAlvany mentioned that this might just be the eye of the hurricane. Because in April, there was the first one-month Fed surplus since 2001, and the CPI report was better than expected. But if real reforms are coming, there will likely be more need to build your shelter from the storm. If you have not listened to the Weekly Commentary t...…
Chinese Admitted To Bessent, They Knew Biden Was Weak "Strong Dollar" Policy Being Reversed By Trump Administration Dollar Recycling Shifting To Gold Recycling "Gold has been interesting. For the month of April, 70 tons, roughly 7.4 billion in gold, was purchased via ETFs in China. That's double the previous month's record. I think tariff uncertainty added to buying, but what's interesting is the global share of ETF buying in China moved higher, from 3% of the global total to 6%. In the month of April, Chinese demand in that four-week period accounted for half of global ETF inflows." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, it's so funny how we talked last week about how different news outlets will say things differently, but behind closed doors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just revealed that the Chinese told him behind closed doors that they ignored their trade commitments under Biden because they knew he was weak. Huh. I guess nobody else did, but yeah. They just admitted that. David: All of my kids have, at one time or another, sat by a light switch on the wall, entertaining themselves by flipping it on, and then off, and then on again until I tell them to stop. Right? Kevin: You know why they do that, don't you? They want your attention. David: Maybe. I mean, tariffs are feeling a little like that now. Kevin: Oh. Yeah. David: Is it the fascination with pulsating waves of energy that fill the room with light, or is it the momentary darkness where ambiguity and the unknown stir a variety of concerns? Kevin: So I've got a question for you, though, because Trump has cut his teeth, basically, building casinos and working in an arena where you probably have to put up with some mob bosses. Okay? Does what works in business, does that work in international relations? David: That was a question that Joseph Nye asked in a Financial Times article just a few weeks ago, and I was thinking about his passing this last week. He served under two presidential administrations, strongly promoted US-Japanese relations, best known for his ideas of soft power influence and complex interdependence. It is worth asking the question. What works in business may or may not work in international relations. So his first big idea, soft power, getting what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment, that's a little like social capital, street credibility, at least a few of my kids would say rizz. That's the word of the moment, short for charisma. The allure of the American dream, better opportunities, they draw immigrants from around the world. Back in the 1990s, Levi's jeans in Moscow were the American stuff people had to have. I mean, I know a guy that flew plane loads full of denim from here to there. Kevin, you know him, too. You used to fly with him. Kevin: That's right. Yeah. He was moving stuff into Russia. David: Yeah. Communism had a grip on the mind of Russians, but America was gaining a grip on the Russian heart. Maybe it was American materialism to be more precise, but we had this sort of street credibility. We had this— Even if you think about the American dream, we have an immigration problem. China doesn't have an immigration problem. Russia doesn't have an immigration problem. Who wants to be in those places? Kevin: Who wants to move in? But I think about that. So Nye talks about soft power, and it reminds me of Otto von Bismarck back in the 1870s. He was a brilliant guy who realized that if you could put together a lot of different agreements, complex agreements, you could have peace and prosperity for a long time. The problem is, Otto von Bismarck died, and it led to World War I. Okay? When things start falling apart, that's where that international relations thing, if you're using soft power, it better work for everyone, not just the guy who put it together. David: Well,…
This week gold rose up slightly, while silver took a small dip. Palladium and platinum are neck and neck. Meanwhile, the dollar index made a slight recovery despite a quiet Fed announcement. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, May 7: The price of gold is up about 2.5%, sitting at $3,367 as of this recording. Intraweek, gold was up as high as $3,440. The price of silver is down about 2.3% over the last week at $32.27. Platinum is up about 1% at $965 from a week earlier. Palladium is up 3% on the week, even with platinum at $965. Moving over to the paper markets… And the S&P 500 is flat from a week earlier, sitting at 5,630. The dollar index is up 0.25% on the week, currently sitting just below 100 at 99.50. Supply chain disruptions, declining trade activity, and mounting U.S. debt fuel the rising demand for tangible assets. Fed’s “Wait and See” Stance While the Fed didn’t announce any dramatic policy changes at its latest meeting, its posture of “wait and see” is itself influencing markets. The Fed is caught between conflicting data: rising risks of unemployment and inflation, complicated by new tariffs and global trade disruptions. The looming elephant in the room is the U.S. debt refinancing. With trillions in Treasury debt set to be refinanced at higher interest rates, the fiscal outlook is concerning. Higher rates on a massive debt load puts further pressure on the Fed’s policy options. And while the S&P 500 remains buoyant, much of the market’s strength is concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, with underlying sectors like transportation showing signs of weakness. The Dollar Index Watch After peaking at over 110 in January, the US dollar index dropped sharply-down 12–13% in just a couple of months, bottoming at 98 in April. While there’s been a slight rebound, this kind of volatility in the world’s largest financial asset is significant. The dollar is valued against other major currencies, so its decline reflects not just domestic issues, but global shifts in confidence and capital flows. Despite concerns about a dollar “crash,” the dollar will likely remain relatively stable compared to other currencies, simply because all fiat currencies are facing similar pressures. However, the rapid decline and ongoing volatility are warning signs of underlying stress in the system. This makes gold’s role as a store of value even more relevant, especially as the dollar’s purchasing power erodes. Gold in Demand Worldwide Central banks are boosting their gold reserves, moving from under 10% of reserves in precious metals to 20–25% and still climbing. This trend signals a loss of faith in the global financial system by its very stewards, making gold a hedge not just for individuals, but for entire nations. People buy gold for different reasons — including building a legacy, wealth preservation, or as insurance against systemic risk. Gold is resilient. It never goes to zero, unlike fiat currencies which can lose value through inflation or policy missteps. Gold is not just about return on investment, but the security of the investment itself. In uncertain times, that “return of your investment” becomes paramount. Get in Touch for Expert Guidance Now is the perfect time to evaluate your precious metals strategy. The McAlvany Precious Metals advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
Gold's Rise Since 2008 Has Been A Policy Choice Of Central Banks David Rosenberg Sees $6k Gold In 3-5 Years Attached Charts: Gold Price VS Central Bank Buying Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have been net buyers of gold at an accelerating pace. As shown in the charts, the correlation between central bank gold accumulation (top) and the rise in gold prices (bottom) is unmistakable—suggesting that gold's upward trajectory isn't just market-driven, but a direct result of policy decisions by monetary authorities around the world. "In a bear market, there's no straight line from overvaluation to undervaluation. It's a process, and this happens over and over again, all the way down. Believing the worst is behind them, believing that a bottom is in with each successive wave of optimism suggested by the price action higher, but the counter-trend moves tend to be short and sharp in the opposite direction from that secular trend. For the secular bear, the counter-trend moves up are powerful. It drives positive energy. It drives the fear of missing out. Maybe we put in the lows and you've got to get in now. At the same time, you're drawing in those new investors with a hope that the market is in the early stage of a new bull trend. That is, in my view, precisely where we are today." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we're coming out of our meeting, and I'm like, "Oh my gosh." We've got to talk about a couple of the things that you brought up in the meeting and Morgan brought up in the meeting, but I'm just going to throw this out right off the bat. You said central banks have an unstoppable appetite for gold. Tell me about that. David: Well, you see these things through a different lens, and it's not a common lens that we are used to. We see timing decisions, we see price opportunities. You want to buy low and sell high, and the appetite for gold by central banks is a policy choice. It is a political decision to diversify away from dollars, away from Treasuries, and move towards having a higher percentage allocation to gold. And if you look back over the last 50 years, we are still a fraction of what central bank holdings used to be. We could see gold holdings increase an additional four- to fivefold just to match where we were in the '70s and '80s. So very unpopular through the '80s and '90s to own gold. We moved towards financial assets, reserve asset managers did. But that trend changed pretty dramatically in the year 2009, and it's been the primary driver of the gold market to date. It also explains why there's a number of items that have been left behind, so to say, because the retail investor who is making a decision based on timing, based on preferences for other risk assets, has yet to enter the market. So we think of junk silver trading at no premiums. We think of the pre-1933 US $20 gold pieces, no premiums. We think of gold mining shares, trading at discounts in some instances still at a discount to their net asset value. It is not a space that is overcrowded. It is not a space that has attracted hardly any interest at all. And so it's just a different calculus. The retail investor is looking through one particular lens, and it's not that of a policy choice. But that's why we've seen such a significant shift from 2009 to the present. Central banks flipped the switch and decided they wanted to increase reserves in gold again. Kevin: Morgan Lewis showed us two charts, and I have to say, Dave, after doing this 38 years, the correlation between those two charts was one of the most profound correlations I've ever seen. And what it shows is the price of gold from 2008 til now and central bank buying from 2008 until now, when they started to become net buyers, not net sellers of gold. And you had asked the group here at McAlvany Precious Metals, you said,…
This week gold and silver took a small decline. Gold is still up 5% over April, holding strong in the long-term trend. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, April 30: The price of gold is down about 1.2%, sitting at $3,290 as of this recording. But it is up 5% on the month. The price of silver is down about 2.3% over the last week, but it is still well over 30 bucks at $32.27. Silver went down about 3% in the month of April. Platinum is down about 0.5% at $955 from a week earlier. Palladium is dead even on the week, still at $935, and it’s about $20 below platinum. Moving over to the paper markets… And the S&P 500 is up 3.5% this week to 5,570, and it is actually pretty even on the month. The dollar index is dead even on the week, currently sitting just below 100 at 99.50. The dollar index saw a decrease of 4.5% over the month of April. Sentiment Declines Consumer sentiment has dropped 8% month over month. It is currently at 52, which is down 32% year over year, primarily driven by worry over rising prices and tariff volatility. The airline industry is declaring a recession as share prices of major airlines are down 44% and fewer people are booking pleasure flights. Job Openings Declines The US job openings report jolted the markets this week. According to the report, there were 7.192 million job openings, but 7.5 million job openings were expected. This showed a tightening of the labor market, with 7.6 million job openings reported the month before. But most of this could be sentiment driven, due to inflationary concerns. There has been no official declaration of a recession. Borrowing Estimate Drops According to the US Department of the Treasury, the current estimate of privately-held net market borrowing for the second quarter dropped significantly. Excluding the lower-than-assumed beginning of the quarterly cash balance, the current quarterly balance is $53 billion less than announced in February. This is the first sign of reality of a decrease in expectations of debt spending, deficit spending. The belt tightening has begun. All eyes remain on gold and its continued high demand. Plan Your Metals Strategy How many ounces of gold and other precious metals should you add to your portfolio? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
This week, we’re joined by Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management. Keith is a former hedge fund manager and a leading voice on building data-driven investment processes that take emotion out of decision making. In this conversation, we discuss: How top hedge fund managers approach risk and opportunity Thinking about money through a "four quadrants" framework Common mistakes investors make when emotions drive their choices Special Offer: Hedgeye is offering McAlvany listeners a free, no-strings-attached month of access to some of their top research tools through the Elite Macro bundle. No credit card required. Learn more and sign up here: hedgeye.com/mcalvany Thanks for listening! "What the companies couldn't tell you was when GDP growth was going to slow and/or inflation was going to slow at the same time, or if inflation was going to accelerate and we end up with stagflation because growth is slowing in the face of inflation, accelerating too quickly. So I kept asking myself, why the hell these guys don't know how to answer this question? And then I understood why, because they don't have a process for them. So that's where I came to the quads. Quads—so substitute for revenue growth, pod one, I substituted the rate of change of real GDP growth for countries, and for pod two, cash flows, I inserted inflation, the rate of change of year over year inflation." —Keith McCullough * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Our guest today, Dave, basically tries to look at the world the way it is, not the way he wishes it to be. David: Keith McCullough joins us from Hedgeye where he's the CEO, and investors have had the opportunity to ride a roller coaster of volatility in recent weeks. From Truth Social posts to unending economic statistics and the occasional Fed official taking the mic. There are new and unpredictable inputs for investors to consider, which makes a standard efficient market hypothesis application of collective wisdom hard to benefit from. We've often explored our frameworks and indicators for credit markets and liquidity dynamics which directly affect the financial markets. We have our own processes and frameworks and disciplines, and we're constantly exploring complementary frameworks like the social and political analysis we frequently refer to from a return guest on the commentary, Neil Howe. His fourth turning framework has for many years provided an interpretive lens for generational change and volatility of a non-financial nature. So we have models, we have frameworks, we have interpretive grids. None are perfect, some are incredibly helpful—some more so than others. That's my introduction to today's conversation with Keith McCullough, CEO at Hedgeye. Imagine my surprise to learn that Neil Howe and Keith have worked together for years. Not a surprise. Another aha moment was learning that Hedgeye cartoonist Bob Rich is a part of Keith's team. I've been laughing at Bob's daily cartoons for the better part of a decade, not knowing the organization he was a part of. I mean, yeah, every one of them says Hedgeye on it. It's probably a measure of density that I didn't connect the wit and wisdom from Bob to Keith's group. It's a little like Gary Larson got an MBA, became a professional trader, and then with gallows humor peeled back the Wall Street layers of opacity. So whether it's the cartoons or Keith's approach to risk management, I keep saying to myself, that is so good. So today, we'll get to know the organization a lot better, why we have so much compatibility. We'll cover that as we go, and of course we'll look at the subscription services that Keith offers, which are invaluable for the investor rolling up their sleeves on a daily basis. We'll cover that as well. All right, Keith, let's get started. We need backstory to appreciate what you do and why you do it.…
Gold reached a new all-time high, finally hitting $3,500 as predicted. Silver gained ground, recovering from recent losses, while other metals remained flat. Let’s take a look at where the prices of precious metals stand as of Wednesday, April 23: The price of gold is up around 2% as of this recording. Intraweek, gold rose up 8% to touch $3,500, and had a 17% total increase since April 8. The price of silver is up 4.09% to $33.60, recovering most of what it lost following the post-tariff dropoff. The price of platinum is up 1% to $964 as of recording — that’s mostly flat week over week. The price of palladium is down 3% to $934, a little bit of a switch from the one-to-one race that it has been in with platinum. Moving over to the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up only 0.7% to 5,371, moving sideways week over week. The dollar index is flat around $100 as of recording this week. This is after it was down about 2% intraweek, which is a significant drop. Seasonal Moves in Gold It is well known among precious metals experts that gold is more popular in certain seasons — and spring is one of them. So it’s no surprise that the price of gold is on the rise this month. But what’s unusual is the rapid, short-term rise that we’ve seen in the price of gold. Since the 2024 election, the price of gold has shot up $1,000. And since it hit a bottom at $1,625 in November 2022, it has more than doubled its price in just 2.5 years. Looking forward, summer is usually a time when gold will pull back a bit. Since gold had such a strong run up this spring, we suspect that there will be a small retracement in the near future. The first pullback we might see would be somewhere around the previous top of $3,150 prior to the exaggerated push up. And then the secondary pull back could be more along the 6 18 short term fib that lines up with other levels as well as being resistance and support — which is right around $2,940. Those are two really good stair steps. Ratio Trade Opportunity Because gold had that brief melt up, it drove up the gold to silver ratio to 105 to one. This is just one of three times in our lifetimes that we’ve seen the ratio pop over 100. The first one was in the early 1990s and the second time was during the 2020 pandemic. This brief pop up was a great opportunity to move some gold into silver if you were able to take advantage of it in time. But don’t feel like you missed out on trading some gold for silver on this brief high. Any gold to silver ratio number that’s in the high nineties is still favoring silver, and there’s a good chance that could happen again in the near term. Get Started Today Now is a great time to discover how precious metals can support your investment goals. One of our McAlvany financial advisors will happily speak with you about your personal objectives and show you how to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…
Outflows Out Of U.S. Assets Going Into Gold Goldman Sachs Increases Gold Price Prediction China Increases Gold Imports On High "So this is why I would say equities are a sideshow, the weakness in equities, the current compression across the indices. Relative to the bond market and currency market, that's what it is. It's a sideshow. The dollar's year-to-date decline versus the euro is only 9.2%. The US Treasury market, if you're looking at the 20-year Treasury, only lower by 2% year-to-date. These markets are actually where the real concern lies. And it's not because it's bigger numbers, but it's because it's a much bigger market." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David each morning I walk outside and I look at the mountains, and I eat my oatmeal, just stand and think. And as I was doing that I started to think about what's going on with the dollar right now, and the possibility of worldwide inflation, high inflation, I don't want to say necessarily hyperinflation, but I was thinking what does it look like when the world's reserve currency starts to melt down? David: We've referenced Stephen Miran's paper, which he wrote back in November of last year. I think we even put it in the show notes a number of weeks ago. And it's important to see the game plan that is feeding the Trump administration's idea of reindustrialization. Implicit to the paper is devaluation of the dollar. There's no concern with that. It's an objective which is clear. They're comfortable with it, but it does have implications for overseas investors. It does have implications for US investors with dollar assets. Kevin: The other day I was talking to my wife and I said gold topping $3,500 an ounce at one point here in the last few hours, that basically is saying what is going to happen to the prices of everything else. Gold is signaling something. Last night, Dave, when we sat and had our Talisker, it's getting pretty expensive to sit and have our Talisker, it used to be more affordable. But I'm thinking that gold is signaling the increase of our Monday nights. David: That's right. That's right. Kevin: Yeah. So gold is signaling the increase in our Talisker on Monday nights. But the volatility right now, for so long we were falling asleep with the VIX, the volatility index, that's not the case now. David: No, and some would even ask: the equity volatility, is that important, is that something of a sideshow? And we would say, in fact it is a sideshow, but we'll work towards that conclusion. Investors are in a volatility meat grinder again. They've got to contemplate the upside of risk assets, and perhaps they're reconsidering what downside looks like as well. From one Truth Social post to the next, markets are subject to surprise after surprise after surprise. So what is a healthy correction? What is a full-blown bear market? And to what degree do tariff uncertainties shape the global investor’s motivation to own US assets, US denominated assets of any kind? It's this question: to stay or go? Double-digit declines in the largest stock indices are commonplace. It's the Russell 2000, the Dow transports, NASDAQ, high-flying sectors like semiconductors, off 23%; the Mag-7 on an equal weighted basis, now off over 25% year to date. And of course, if you're looking for a little bit more fun and entertainment, the five times Mag-7 ETF is off 89% year to date, 92% from its all-time highs in December of last year. So the gods of the marketplace give and take away. Leverage is a force multiplier, and there's a lot of it spread across asset classes. Kevin: You and I both ride mountain bikes. My son just rebuilt the shock on the rear part of the bike. When we lose our shock absorption, we really feel the bumps. And if you think about it, the Federal Reserve and just the policy up to this point has been like a shock absorber,…
Gold sees a massive surge this week, climbing all the way up to $3,343. Silver also saw a 5% rise to $32.70, while platinum and palladium saw some modest gains. Alongside the US dollar’s weakened performance and high global demand for gold, the momentum behind gold continues to grow and the likelihood of higher prices increases. Thanks for listening. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on Wednesday, April 16: The price of gold is up 8% to $3338, after its massive surge over the past week. The price of silver is up 5.5% to $32.70, starting to look healthier after a big dropoff last week. The price of platinum is up 4.6% to $960 as of recording. Platinum seems hard stuck between about $950 and $1,000 and continues to remain there. The price of palladium is up 7% to $972, surpassing platinum by a small amount in their neck-and-neck race. Metals Momentum On Tuesday, India announced that they want to use a trade surplus to buy gold, silver, and oil from the United States, and that caused a moonshot for gold in the early morning hours. President Trump is trying to initiate an industrial revolution, and that's when we expect to see platinum finally break north of $1,000 per ounce. So keep an eye on these industrial metals. It is still early in the game. Dollar vs Gold When you’re a gold investor, it’s hard to remember how you used to think about investing before you purchased precious metals. But many investors find an asset like gold to be out of their comfort zone. They’re used to looking at how the stock market performs and how many dollars they have in the bank. Gold is an allocation. It can be seen as insurance for the rest of your money or an allocation as capital to preserve your purchasing power as the dollar gets eroded by inflation. And there’s no better illustration of gold’s power than looking at this chart showing the purchasing power of the dollar over the last 100 years: As you can see, the price of gold is the mirror image or the inverse relationship of this US dollar purchasing power. Ratio Trade Opportunity The gold-to-silver ratio hit a rare high of 101, indicating a rare chance for silver investors to take advantage of. The gold to silver ratio has fluctuated between 99 and 101 for weeks. This week, the ratio is back to 101 today. The last time we saw a significant shift in the gold to silver ratio was at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. And because there is still little western demand for gold and silver right now, premiums are very low. So if you’ve been thinking about making a ratio trade, now is the time to get in touch with your McAlvany Precious Metals advisor. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…
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Відтворити Пізніше Відтворити Пізніше Списки Подобається ПодобаєтьсяDecades of Inflationism Home to Roost MWM Q1 2025 Tactical Short Conference Call April 17, 2024 David: All right, let's begin. Good afternoon. We are going to start the call today with performance, look at market insights, and then have Q&A as our finale. This is for first quarter 2025, conference call for Tactical Short, “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost.” We're looking forward to the questions that have been reserved for the end of the call, and I'm grateful for each of them, both the level of engagement and the depth of curiosity. We're also excited to share insights and perspectives with you today, and I would just encourage you to engage broadly. You need not agree with every point in order to benefit from the totality of insights. We are in a fast changing world, and we continue to adjust our thinking to the circumstances that emerge. [Unclear] a routine look at our thinking. I would encourage you to always engage on a Saturday with Credit Bubble Bulletin, which Doug's been writing for a long, long time. And it is the best chronicling of how we arrived at this point in time. It gives you a comprehensive look at credit markets and the influence that they have within the broader financial markets. I would also encourage you to engage with a piece that we put out also on Saturdays called Hard Asset Insights, perspective on the markets from one of our colleagues, as well as my podcast on Wednesdays now and it's 18th year. A good way for you to keep up with our thinking on other macro issues that relate ultimately to your financial decision making. So again, thank you for participating in our first quarter 2025 recap conference call. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first time listeners on today's call, I'll begin with some general information for those who are unfamiliar with Tactical Short, and of course you can find more detailed information available at mwealthm.com/tacticalshort. The objective. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while also providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. Separately managed accounts allow for a very investor friendly, full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, no lockups, it's perfect for providing all of those things. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs, and our plan has been, on occasion, to buy liquid listed put options as well. Shorting entails a unique set of risks. This is where we are set apart from our competitors, by our analytical framework and our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy in the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was boosted 200 basis points to 82% in early March, the highest in the history of the strategy. Focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure, a short in the S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, remained the default position for what we regard as a very high risk environment. Giving an update on performance, Tactical Short accounts after fees returned 4.06% during Q1. The S&P 500 returned a negative 4.28%, so for the quarter Tactical Short accounts returned 95% of the S&P 500's negative return. As for one year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned a negative 5.14 versus the 8.23 return for the S&P 500, losing 62% of the S&P's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned 5.16% during Q1, and over the past year Grizzly has returned a negative 0.52, a half a percent. Ranger Equity Bear returned 9%, 9.06 for the quarter, with a negative 1.89 for the one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned 5.631,…
This Week’s Guest: George FriedmanGeorge Friedman is one of the most respected voices in geopolitical strategy today. As the founder of both Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures, his work has shaped how analysts and leaders understand the long-term forces driving global events. With decades of experience forecasting international conflicts, economic trends, and national realignments, Friedman brings deep historical insight to the current moment. About His Book – The Storm Before the CalmIn The Storm Before the Calm, Friedman lays out a compelling case that America’s current turmoil is part of a larger, predictable pattern. He identifies two ongoing cycles in U.S. history—an 80-year institutional cycle and a 50-year socio-economic cycle—that are converging in the 2020s. According to Friedman, periods of instability like this one are not signs of collapse, but of renewal. The book explores how these internal shifts, while painful, ultimately lead to reinvention and long-term resilience. Special Offer for Our AudienceGeorge and his team are offering our listeners an exclusive opportunity to subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, his platform for in-depth geopolitical analysis. Subscribers get access to forecasts, strategic briefings, and special reports from one of the most experienced teams in the business.Sign up here: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/subscribe/?utm_source=macalvany In This Episode: Why the United States Always Reinvents Itself George Friedman on the core ideas behind The Storm Before the Calm How to understand the current crisis through the lens of historical cycles What a “new model” of the world might look like Where George sees the U.S. headed after this period of upheaval This conversation offers rare clarity in a noisy time. If you're looking for perspective that goes deeper than headlines and polling data, don't miss this one. Also, Click Here to register for the Tactical Short 1st Quarter 2025 Recap call, this Thursday - “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost” “The United States realized that the foundation of its previous era, the Cold War, and its relationship with the world was over, and it proceeded inevitably. And whoever was president--it's an impersonal process--would reconsider his relationship with Europe, would reconsider his relationship with China, would reconsider all relationships, plus attack the social crisis that foreign country and the imminent but not yet ready economic crisis. This becomes a problem of engineering, not of geopolitics, so to speak. How do you engineer this?” --George Friedman * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, I really look forward to these talks when you talk to George Friedman. I'll never forget, it probably was 10, 11 years ago that to George Friedman, he said Russia is going to have to go into Ukraine. And he said that's probably going to happen in the next five years. And I remember thinking, gosh, that's a pretty bold statement. Boy, it struck me when it happened. David: Well, we have a lot to talk about in terms of the financial markets, and we have to put that on hold for a moment. Bringing into focus some of the geopolitical issues that are in play, I think is worth doing. And so today George Friedman will be with us to do that. Later this week, Doug Noland and I will hold our quarterly conference call for our Tactical Short product, the events of recent weeks and the pressures which have emerged since the beginning of the year make this call a requirement for anyone seeking insight and understanding. Doug and I will not agree on all matters relating to the current administration, which in no way detracts from the insights we'll be discussing on Thursday in the financial markets. In fact, today's conversation with George Friedman may bring an important overlay to that analysis.…
Markets remain in flux this week, with many sudden movements and short-term charts giving little insight. Silver, platinum, palladium, and copper all see steep declines compared to gold’s continued strong performance. This week, we focus on the broader scope this week and investigate more long-term planning for your investment portfolio. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of April 9: The price of gold is down about 1.5%, but that’s after a steep decline of 6.5% intraweek. Gold is looking strong right now on a strong rebound. The price of silver is down 10.75% to $30.80. However, it is rebounding from its intraweek low of 17% down from its peak. The price of platinum is down 9% to $916 as of recording, but this is after plunging 14.5% since our last recording. Platinum was already on a decline from early February, down as much as 17% at one point. The price of palladium is down 9.5% to $905. It was down about 13% at one point. The price of copper is down 16%, sitting at $4.40. While it’s off its previous high, copper was down 23% at one point. Moving over to looking at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 11%, sitting at 5,336 off of its February all-time high. However, it was down 21% at one point. Dow Transportation Average is down 30% from Nov 25 to April 9, lowest valuation since October 2022 and breaking below a significant support level. Debt Watch If you look at the big picture, the market gyration seems to be the main event. But to quote our colleague and portfolio manager at McAlvany Wealth Management, Doug Nolan, “The stocks are just the side show. The main event you need to watch is the 10-year Treasury market.” Indeed, the US will need to refinance $9.2 trillion worth of Treasuries between now and June 2025 — just a few months away. While there’s hope for increased revenue from tariffs, refinancing the sheer volume of paper entering the market will be quite the challenge. So if you think the markets have been volatile, this is just the beginning of more of the same (and potentially worse) to come. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had been rising as the interest rates had been rising for the last couple of years, took a dip for the first couple months of 2025. This year, it declined almost 19%, from 4.8 to about 3.9. President Trump has been begging the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates again, but we're not necessarily seeing that. But over the last few days, the 10 year Treasury yield has jumped about 11.5%, back up to around 4.3% And with significant rollover coming, it's very likely we're going to see those treasury yields continue to climb. Liquidity may become an issue here. Protection from Volatility While all of the industrial metals across the boards seem to be declining, gold is holding pretty steady, like it typically does in an emergency. Now is a critical time to reanalyze your investment plans and to take advantage of current market moves. We’re Here to Help McAlvany’s team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
This week’s McAlvany Weekly Commentary covers the shifting global financial landscape through the lens of tariffs, gold’s historic surge, and structural market volatility. David walks through the implications of what may be the end of the Bretton Woods era as we’ve known it, and why investors should be paying close attention to the signals coming from both financial markets and real assets. We also highlight David’s new white paper, a timely analysis of gold’s breakout to all-time highs and what it may be telegraphing about the future of currency stability, capital flows, and global trade. Click here to read David’s latest white paper on gold’s record highs, the unraveling of Bretton Woods, and what it means for your portfolio.Read the full paper → Two featured charts this week provide deeper context: S&P Historical Composite: Secular Highs and LowsA look at more than 150 years of inflation-adjusted S&P 500 performance. With the index now 398% above its 2009 low, this chart raises important questions about valuation, cycle exhaustion, and what comes next. Treasury to Gold Ratio – Gold PreferredThis chart tracks the long-term relationship between gold and long-dated U.S. Treasuries. The recent surge illustrates a major shift in capital preference toward hard assets—an essential dynamic to understand in the current environment. David also discusses market behavior over the past week, including key differences between asset classes, how forced liquidations are impacting prices, and why this environment reminds him of the 2008 deleveraging cycle—only with deeper, more systemic undercurrents. "Gold has been signaling for a number of years that we are at a very important historical inflection point. Gold surpassed a 25% return last year, rose over 19% in the first quarter of this year, and it's signaling structural changes are occurring. Smart money has been positioning ahead of that." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I can't keep things straight. I've been listening to clips from Pelosi and she's been talking about the need for tariffs, but this goes back to the 1990s. I think Schumer said some things. Obama obviously was very, very vocal. I mean, what gives, are they no longer saying the same things or driving Teslas anymore? David: Well, clearly the market is shocked by the extent to which tariffs were introduced last week. And of course the response from the Chinese on Friday didn't help things because it suggests that we've got a war on our hands, not just a slap on the wrist from the US administration for a variety of our trade partners. But you go back through the clips with Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders from 2005 to 2019, they all advocated for massive tariffs, particularly with China, and their current condescension and critique of the president's policies are, in point of fact, disingenuous lies. They misrepresent what they have strongly advocated for over the decades, a better deal for the middle class and working-class families. The left objected to many of the concessions given to our trade partners during the recent decades of globalization flourishing, and now Trump is singing from their song sheet, and the left has to object because it's Trump. Kevin: And let's just face it, Dave. I mean, we've done this commentary now, what is it? 17 years. The economy and the financial world has just gotten more bloated and more bloated and more bloated. It had to correct at some point. So I don't know that the tariffs have to be blamed for everything, do they? David: Well, I think it's important to draw a strong line of distinction between the economic goals, the economic outcomes of the tariff regime and over-leveraged, overvalued financial market because that bubble is in search of a pin. The financial bubble was going to burst. Now, you have a source of uncertainty that acts like t...…
This week we review the strong gains seen in precious metals over the first quarter against the struggling equities market. Gold’s increases follow a strong movement from central banks and hedges to repatriate money to cover weak equities markets. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on April 2: The price of gold is down 3.5% to $3125 from a week earlier. The price of silver is up about 0.5% from our recording last week to $33.80. Platinum is up about 1% to $975 an ounce. Palladium is up 1.5% to $978 per ounce. Copper is down about 3.5% to $5.01 this week. Looking at the equities markets, which are mostly down this week… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% at 5670. There was an intraday lowest price in the S&P since September. The DJIA is also down about 0.5% to 42,200. It also hit its September lows, but it did that about a week ago. The Dow Transports rose up just under 1% to around 15,000. And of course, we did record this before the tariff day announcements happened, so we expect to see even more volatility in the coming days. Q1 Metals Performance Precious metals showed outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2025. Gold is up 19% for the quarter, and silver gained 17%. Platinum gained 8%, while palladium increased 5% for the quarter. We would happily take this kind of performance in any quarter. That’s the great news for precious metals investors — they’re seeing great appreciation of their holdings. However, it also means that consumers are getting squeezed at the grocery store and gas pump. Silver Opportunity If gold is looking too pricey these days, you can start building your gold reserve by stacking ounces of silver and eventually making a ratio trade between gold and silver when the time is right. Now is the perfect time to add more silver ounces to get in before silver has its own run up. Silver is still undervalued, and it has a lot of upside potential. And now, silver is starting to play catch up. Looking at the silver chart, you can see that silver has been moving up in a stair-step pattern since the end of February. Silver has gone from $28 to $33 per ounce since then. Now, it looks like it will soon reach $35, and that’s where it could meet some resistance. As long as the gold to silver ratio remains in the 70 - 90 to one range, our clients will likely add more silver ounces to their portfolios. The trick is to just be patient and hold the silver until the ratio swings in favor of gold. Update Your Metals Strategy Are you considering adding more silver or gold ounces to your portfolio? How much should you own? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556 Markets face uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and new tariffs. Thanks for listening.…
5 More Stealth Bombers Moved To The Middle East S&P Down 4.6% QTR, Gold Up 19% QTR DOW/Gold Ratio Removes Emotion From Allocation Decisions "Months ago, this is what we were talking about. The leaders out of the 2022 decline, the ones that have recovered fastest, there was a narrative supporting that recovery through '23 and 2024: tech-dominant, AI-dominant, crypto-dominant. And they are now the leaders on the downside. In speaking with Wall Street firms, there is a hope that the worst is behind us already, and I'm not so sure." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Actually, Dave, I should say welcome to Liberation Day, American Liberation Day. David: There we go. We'll see what we're being liberated from and what the cost of liberation is. In every battle, there's collateral damage. Let's see what that looks like. Kevin: Well, gold, over 3,000, over 3,100 is like, all right, well, then there is a cost to liberation. David: Yeah. Spot gold traded to $3,145 to close out the month of March, and of course, closing out the quarter. The latest figures on investor interest, which had turned higher in February—of course that was following weak purchases in December and January—they were consistently high on the demand side in the first three weeks of March as well. So, full March numbers are still pending tabulation. February, as we mentioned, slight revision to what I said last week, 72 tons of ETF investor demand in North America. Again, first couple of weeks of March, 72 tons. First three weeks of March, this time stretched globally with one single day seeing 23.7 tons of demand. For March, it was Europe pulling the gold market higher. Asia, North America, demand was softer. The critical factors on investor minds, here we are this week—any surprise?—geopolitics, trade wars, barely separable. So, quarter-end gains in precious metals-related shares helped to push our returns in the asset management side to double digits. Hard assets in general, they're working in contrast to financial assets, which remain under pressure. So, we expect tempering of that uptrend. We love it, but all good things do come to a pause, at least, but only a short respite. Hard assets are to date not succumbing to pressure in equities. Let's see if they can stand up to deleveraging the way they already have stood up and outperformed broad market derisking. Kevin: I was thinking about it the other day, Dave, what if you had to tell a story and speak to any culture going back thousands of years? You'd have to simplify. You'd have to simplify the language and bring up things that they would recognize. Gold, the gold story, you could tell the gold/uncertainty story going back 4,000 years. I mean, the old Sumerian and Babylonian writings were weighing the price of things relative to gold, and a lot of times it had to do with uncertainty. David: Well, absolutely. Whether it was in ancient Lydia, fast-forward to more contemporary, Florence or even post-World War II, what does the world monetary system look like and do we use gold? Do we not use gold? Uncertainty reigns. And the feelings of investor concern, I think they're more acute coming into Liberation Day, April 2nd. Market behavior, it feels a little bit like this: A punted football just getting ready to hit the ground. The bounce could be relief. There's rallies in risk assets, a correction in gold, possible outcomes. But on the other hand, trade tensions ease. And those are, of course, possible outcomes if you have trade tensions which ease. But the flip side is also true. Equity indices are right now on a knife's edge. They've been trading below the 200-day moving average. This is the NDX, this is the S&P, this is the Dow, rallying back to test those numbers from below, and uniformly failing to muster enough energy to retake those technical thresholds.…
Precious metals markets remain relatively flat this week, while gold takes a minor step back down following its recent climb. Copper is the star of the show this week, reaching a new all-time high and seeing a 10% increase over the last 10 days. The S&P and USD make a small rebound, following weeks of poor performance. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 26: The price of gold is down 1% to $3015 from a week earlier. The price of silver is flat from our recording last week to $33.75. Platinum is down 3.5% to $965 an ounce. It has taken the biggest decline over the week. Palladium is up slightly, around 1% to $964 per ounce. Looking over at the paper markets, which are bouncing up slightly from a recent correction… The S&P 500 bounced up 1.2% to 5,666, a small bounce up after a recent 11% decline. The dollar index also bounced up 1% to $104.05. Dr. Copper Reaches New High The price of copper reached a new highest price ever, pushing above $5.32 early Wednesday. It had a 10% rise within the last week. Looking at its longer-term performance, copper has been in a rising, compressing channel since 2020. It had a slightly higher high in May 2024, and it reached its new high this week. As we’ve said before, the shiny metal is commonly called Dr. Copper because it tends to lead other industrial resources — as well as precious metals, to some extent. When copper becomes more expensive, it tends to indicate that inflation is on the rise. Some of copper’s rise could certainly be due to this massive tariff discussion, as well as its effect on consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence Declines Following years of a government stimulated economy, markets are now entering a detox period. Treasury Secretary Bessette has said that we need to expect a detox period, and since the election, there has been the beginning of belt tightening. This has also led to the lowest consumer confidence score seen since January 2021. The most recent report showed consumer confidence dropping to 92.9 from 100 in February. Market expectations were that consumer confidence would drop to 94. And while the markets may be headed into more belt tightening and recession, smart investors know to look at where the big money is betting — and right now, that’s in real, physical gold. Add Gold to Your Portfolio Working with an expert in precious metals will help you find the best buying opportunities for adding more gold to your portfolio. If you haven’t had a complimentary meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
Bessent: "End Intox With Detox" Anxiety High With Uncertainty Of New Rules Personality Test Identifies Trump With Churchill, LBJ, Castro, & Jack Nicholson "We may or may not be able to grow our way out, but the efforts to shrink the scope of expenditures and drive economic growth via economic expansion instead of government expansion—two very different means of driving the economy—that's being put in motion in one place on the planet today. One place only. The USA. It's something like a corporate turnaround. First, manage your outflows and cut all unnecessary spending. Then drive growth in the areas you have the greatest advantage, building back with a much reduced budget. Turnaround specialists are rarely loved within the organization that has ossified and is in the process of being restructured, but that process can be a matter of survival." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we just met with Morgan Lewis, and he had some interesting statistics to talk about. Are we possibly going to go into a recession? I hate to say, my mind wandered. I mean it was very interesting listening to the statistics coming out of all the economic sources. But I started thinking of the chicken coop meter. I live on five acres and we used to run a chicken coop. We don't now, but every neighbor around me, I was thinking about it while he was talking. Every neighbor around me has started a chicken coop in the last year or two. I hear roosters all around me, and I was thinking, I wonder, yeah, could that be the price of eggs or do you think maybe that's a precursor to people realizing things are going to get tight? David: Yeah, it is obviously partially an egg issue or they just don't want to pay 12 bucks for a dozen, a dollar apiece. All of a sudden your cheap protein source has gone the way of the dodo bird. Well, yeah, I think there is also an adjustment to what may be harder times. This is where we've often talked about a two-tiered economy and what economists will sometimes describe as a K-shaped economy where some are doing very well. One of the legs of the K goes up and to the right and is fine, and the other leg goes down. And I think the middle class, the lower middle class has been under pressure for some time in the continuation of the inflation trend, whether it's in price of a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk, or even just a marginal 2% increase off of a base level which was much, much lower four or five years ago. It's compounded negatively, and their income is not keeping up. Kevin: Well, and Morgan was bringing out, he said, you know, the gold thesis that we've been talking about for so long may really showing itself right now because he quoted Scott Bessent, who was being interviewed on Meet the Press, and Meet the press basically said, "Okay, this period of detox, are we going to go into a recession?" And Scott was like, "I've taught on this and we were going to have a crisis anyway." David: And we may have a crisis, Kevin: We may have a crisis. David: But here's what's different. We're taking steps to do something different versus what we have done in the past, which is intox over and over again in response to crisis after crisis. We've seen credit explode higher as a way to save the system. And we've gotten to a level that that is not in any way sustainable, and we cannot go that way again. So detox versus intox, that is the only way forward. Kevin: So even last year before we knew Trump was going to be president, before Scott Bessent was in— Last year at this time, Dave, our conversation on gold was about price moves. And I'm not going to say that we want to say that we predict prices. I can't at all. But the things you were saying about gold and the price of gold a year ago, and then today, over the last few months, let's go over that because I think it's important to go back and say, "All right,…
Gold surged 4% since last week, while silver has risen 1.6%, maintaining a gold-to-silver ratio near 90:1. Platinum and palladium also saw gains, up 1.7% and 1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the stock market remains under pressure, climbing back up in small increments, but all staying below their 200-day moving averages. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 19: The price of gold is up 4% to $3046 from a week earlier. Gold is starting to look a little bit parabolic. The price of silver is up 1.6% from our recording last week to $33.80. As we're recording, we're flirting with that 90 to one gold to silver ratio. Platinum is up 1.7% to $1,005 an ounce. and a little bit behind it. Palladium is up about 0.85% to $955 per ounce, just about flat from a week earlier. Looking at the paper markets, which are still in correction territory and about 9% from where they topped… The DJIA is up 1.6% sitting just under 42,000. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% to 5,680, a small bounce up from last week. The NASDAQ is up about 0.2% to 19,580 — pretty much flat from a week earlier. Now all three of those paper markets have been sitting below their 200-day moving average now for about the last week or so. The dollar index is sitting flat around $103.05 after falling off a cliff over the last week or two. Going Long on Gold As we discussed a few weeks ago, the commitment of traders report shows more of the institutional investors betting long on gold. There are about 215,000 long contracts compared to about 33,000 short. So at least as of last week, the long contracts keep flowing. Institutional investors are repatriating gold from abroad and unwinding their short positions. The gold carry trade has been circling about the precious metals industry for 25 years as a mechanism to borrow gold at a very cheap rate and use the proceeds to invest in whatever the institution wanted to, and then keeping the price of gold low, replacing it at the end of the year or end of the contract at a cheaper price. Well, that's not working right now. Institutions are leading this short covering rally. It's not the retail investor driving into the gold market. Most of the retail customers are enjoying the direction the country is in right now. More broadly, there is a paradigm shift happening with the markets. The new administration is lending credence to the gold market by talking about it for the first time in 40 years, giving it significance rather than just trying to minimize its significance. Tariffs Add Pressure to Equities The mainstream media continues to attack the economy, raising red flags about tariffs and the trade war concerns, and the expectations for continuing inflation. At Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell got a little political, indicating that they would withhold any cuts because they're uncertain about the effect tariffs would have on driving inflation higher. Main Street feels like the economy is great. I don't think that Main Street feels like the economy is terrible, but they may not feel secure that it is great. And the president’s focus is on making Main Street USA great. The risk to that could be that the equities go beyond the recent correction into bearish territory or a recession. The Latest Gold Opportunity Right now, you can buy certified 100-year-old old Saints and Liberties — MS 62, MS 63, MS 64 — for less money per coin than Gold Eagles right now. The prices on these Saints and Liberties have gone up to two or three times the price of gold in the past. But now you can get them for less than the price of a gold bullion coin. We have never seen this happen. If you’re ready to add more real gold ounces to your portfolio, please give McAlvany a call. You can call us at (800) 525-9556, and one of our trusted advisors will help you get started.…
US Dollar Down 27.4% VS Gold Over 12 Months Hard Asset Stocks Clearly Outperforming Bond Index How To Multiply Stock Holdings With DOW/Gold Ratio "I think we are entering a new phase in the metals market. Many investors who up to this point have never owned the metals, they're the ones who are looking and saying, "I think we have an allocation gap. I think we don't own any and we should own some." So going from not a dollar's worth, not a single gram of gold in their portfolio, new allocators are entering the fray with a fresh set of eyes and a motivation to own gold that didn't exist for them before 2025." --David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Well, Monday, Dave, I remembered something back from the mid-1990s. I was asked to be a guest at the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was in the World Trade Center at the time, the original World Trade Centers. And I remember standing outside the gold pit. You know, the pits there. Most of the oil was traded in the various pits at the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. I was standing right outside of the gold pit when gold happened to be 399 that day, $399 an ounce. And these guys, you can imagine the pits, these guys stand in a circle, they get a phone call. Somebody says, "Go ahead and sell a contract." One of the traders came by and he offered his hand. They put their palm forward when they're trying to sell something. And he put his hand forward and he was saying, "Augie at aught. Augie at aught." And I was like, what does that mean, Augie at aught? Well, he was trying to sell an August contract for gold at $400. These traders who were standing there, they were like, "Yeah, no, I'm not going to be the guy who buys Augie at aught. I'm not going to be the guy who breaks 400." But Monday, we see triple, triple aught. $3,000 gold, Dave. This is the first time in anybody's lifetime. David: Yeah, a close above 3,000 is pretty significant, and it appears we'll get a multi-day close above 3,000. And so there's some interesting dynamics within the gold market. Of course, very interesting dynamics across the broader financial landscape. And budget numbers are in, February budget deficit numbers are in, and we added another $307 billion to the debt dumpster fire. Kevin: Wow. David: But it was under expectations. They expected 308, so 307, I mean, it seems like a huge win. That brings us to 1.15 trillion for the first five months of the fiscal year. Kevin: Wow. David: While we may not continue at that average annual rate of 230 billion monthly, we are on that theoretical course for 2.76 trillion for the full fiscal year. And of course, that's if the last seven months look like the first five. Bessent has his work cut out for him. If we land a recession in 2025, okay, 2.5, $3 trillion deficit, I think that's a given. A nasty recession would tilt the number towards 4 trillion. That's not politics. This is math. So the current trend for yields in the bond market, US Treasuries in particular, are lower, and that's in large part because of the stress in the equities markets, people looking for safe havens. But that could reverse by year-end should the fixed-income vigilantes get excitable. Kevin: So the question always is, how long can we continue to do this? How long can we continue to borrow this kind of money? David: Yeah. Big questions remain. We are at the end of the major credit cycle. Government finance has come to dominate the credit system. What do the markets—particularly the bond markets—look like when air leaks from the granddaddy of all bubbles, the government debt bubble? Kevin: Yeah, and I'm wondering if even the American doesn't ask that question, if it's not the Chinese right now asking that question. David: Yeah. Well, speaking of exciting, for the month of February, the People's Bank of China added a modest five...…
Precious metals make a strong showing this week with gold back above the $2900 level. The US dollar continues its downwards trend, dropping 3% over the last week. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 12: The price of gold is up about 0.5% at $2,936. It did have a couple percent movement down and then back up in between recordings. The price of silver is up about 4% over the last week, sitting at $33.22 Platinum up about 2.5%, sitting at $990, and just inching towards that thousand dollars mark again. Palladium is up about 3% at $946, showing a little strength in its own right as well. Meanwhile in the paper markets… The US dollar is down another 3% over the last week to $103.05. So the dollar remains in free fall now for the last couple of weeks, and it looks like it's a dragon. The S&P 500 is down 7% to 5,577, now down over 10%. The Dow Industrials is down 4.5% to 41,960, and from top to bottom down about 9%. The Dow Transportation Index is down 5.3% to around 14,600, and it has declined 18% since reaching a high in November 2024. The NASDAQ was down 3% at 19,590 for the week, and down about 14% off highs in February. Market Flight to Safety We have been speaking for several weeks about factors in the broader markets that affect the prices of precious metals — like optimism, GDP, and the rate of inflation. In order for us to see a significant change in precious metals prices, you'd have to see a significant change in one of those categories. With the tariff and trade wars, we’ve seen a lot of movement. Reviewing the research coming out of Hedgeye Risk Management and their Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) Quad System, it seems the US is moving into quadrant four — which is growth slowing and inflation slowing. What’s unusual is that when you have a sell off occurring in the equities market or in the crypto market, money typically goes into the US dollar. However, there’s a double whammy of the dollar falling precipitously as well as the equities market falling. So where is the money going? It's fleeing into safety and going into metals. The Gold Rush Begins Trump has also called for an audit of all the gold stored in Fort Knox. But even if all 8,100 tons of gold are stored there, that doesn’t even equal $900 billion — which is valued at about 1.3% of all of the money in circulation and the national debt. Smart investors who start stacking gold ounces now will be getting in ahead of the massive gold rush about to happen. The Tangible Opportunity The new US administration is slashing the government budget and finding money quickly in anticipation of what’s to come financially. The US owes $36 trillion, and it will have to refinance $27 trillion when it comes due in the next four years. That is an erupting volcano of treasury paper into a market without enough buyers. The US has to find a way to move that money into something else. That’s why Trump has also been talking about establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund, which could include gold, timber, oil and gas, pipelines and other tangible assets. Everything that the government is considering putting into a Sovereign Wealth Fund is exactly what we’ve been offering through our hard asset portfolios at McAlvany Wealth Management. Add Gold Ounces Today If you haven’t connected with a McAlvany Advisor yet, now is a great time to discover how gold can support your investment strategy. Call us at (800) 525-9556 for a complimentary portfolio review. One of our trusted advisors will help you discover your personal strategy for adding gold ounces to reach your goals.…
German Borrowing Costs Surge Trump Calls Tariff The Most Beautiful Word China Says: "You Want War?... Fine" "We've often noted the migration of crisis from financial and economic to the political and geopolitical realm. We should not forget that the largest buyers of gold today are acquiring it as a strategic allocation, not merely as a trade. In a disrupted world with changing associations—very fluid loyalties—control is important, autonomy is important, agency is important, insurance is important." - David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we've been doing this a long time—2008, on—this commentary anyway. The company's been here since 1972, so we've seen an awful lot, but think about the last few years when America was paying Europe's bills, and the handouts were coming out quite a bit. We were scratching our heads going, ZIRP, zero interest rate policy. If you were a German or if you were a European, you really didn't have to pay interest on your debt, did you? David: No. And that is quickly changing. You know, the speed at which things are changing reminds me a lot of where we were, March of 2008, so 17 years ago. As we get to our anniversary this month, it is fascinating, the quantity of information, the complexity of how things are occurring, trying to wrap our minds around them, get our arms around them from a market's perspective is one thing, from an economic perspective is another, from a political and public policy perspective, yet another still. And in terms of international relations, trying to weave all these things together, it's just flat complicated. Kevin: When we were first starting this program, it was following Bear Stearns coming out and trying to offer debt into the market and then pulling the debt back off. Something very similar happened this week, didn't it? David: Yeah, we were alive when Bear Stearns was an entity. There's some people in the markets today that probably don't even know that name—unless they're interested in the history of the global financial crisis, then they might have some historical reference, but no experience. We have a lot of mile markers in our company, and I go back through— Sometimes I can tell where we were at in a period of time by the bars that we're looking at. For instance— Kevin: You're talking about where they serve drinks? David: Oh, no. I mean, I have Silver Bache bars. B-A-C-H-E. Bache was a Wall Street firm that is no more. We have Gold Credit Suisse Bars. 20 years from now, people will be like, "Who is Credit Suisse?" They're gone, too. Over time, there is an evolution, and it is very Darwinian on Wall Street. Kevin: That's such an amazing metaphor, Dave, because the gold and the silver that those bars, actually, those imprints on those bars, the gold and the silver, has just been going up. But a lot of those places have just disappeared. David: Yeah, I love the story that they tell long after these firms, very established firms, have gone away. You think, "Well, they must not have been anything significant." Anybody remember Barings? Kevin: Yeah. David: Known as the sixth great power. I mean, in terms of importance in the world scene. I mean, it's just another bank, just another failure. And these things- Kevin: And it failed in a day. David: These things happen, and I do feel— Obviously the dynamics are different. We're not talking about mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, CLOs, CDOs, but we are back to a market where leveraged loans are selling off and credit is being— I wouldn't say we're moving towards any degree of panic, but there's pressure developing within the corporate credit markets. And last week, to your point earlier, the European bond markets are reflecting the German commitment to spend, and prices of European IOUs uniformly sold off last week with yields rising 40 to 45 basis points for the week in ...…
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