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The art of uncertainty: living with chance, ignorance, risk, and luck
Manage episode 462799334 series 3382916
Вміст надано LSE Film and Audio Team, London School of Economics, and Political Science. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією LSE Film and Audio Team, London School of Economics, and Political Science або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
Contributor(s): Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter | Chance, luck, and ignorance; how to put our uncertainty into numbers. We all have to live with uncertainty about what is going to happen, what has happened, and why things turned out how they did. We attribute good and bad events as "due to chance", label people as "lucky", and (sometimes) admit our ignorance. David Spiegelhalter will show how to use the theory of probability to take apart all these ideas, and demonstrate how you can put numbers on your ignorance, and then measure how good those numbers are. Along the way we will look at three types of luck, and judge whether Derren Brown was lucky or unlucky when he was filmed flipping ten heads in a row.
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