Trump, Season 2: What Can Ukraine and the World Expect from Him Already?

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"The golden age of America begins right now!" This was the opening line of Donald Trump’s inaugural speech. During the address, he promised to declare a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, increase oil and gas production, withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, regain control over the Panama Canal, recognize only two genders — male and female — and send American astronauts to Mars. Notably, he did not mention Ukraine once, instead vowing to end all wars worldwide.

Later, while signing a series of executive orders in the Oval Office, Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was ready to negotiate an end to the war. Regarding Vladimir Putin, the 47th U.S. president announced plans to meet with him, potentially very soon. Bulgarian political analyst and intellectual Ivan Krastev believes Trump could fall into a psychological trap in this scenario. Having previously met with the Russian president, Trump might assume they share a personal connection. However, he may fail to grasp that the Putin of three years of full-scale war is not the same man he met before.

Krastev is confident that one of Trump’s levers of pressure on Moscow will be sanctions, particularly targeting Russian oil. According to the analyst, negotiations with the Russians will be far from easy. However, Trump is unlikely to comply entirely with Putin’s demands. The issue arises if Trump distances himself from the conflict, secures a temporary solution, and then leaves the war to the Europeans. Krastev warns this temptation could pose a risk to both Ukraine and Europe.

Journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk speaks with Ivan Krastev about Trump’s changes and fears, potential topics of negotiation regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Europe caught between Elon Musk’s tweets and Kremlin propaganda, Viktor Orbán’s ambitions as a special envoy, and the role of demographics as a factor in the war.