What Really Happened in India's 2024 General Election? - Grand Tamasha

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It has been more than three months since the conclusion of India’s massive 2024 general elections. And it is no exaggeration to say that the results of the election caught many, if not most, election observers by surprise.

To many, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared invincible in national elections especially given the widespread popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And yet, the party suffered a significant setback, emerging as the single largest party but well short of a parliamentary majority.

So, what actually happened in these elections? How can we understand the BJP’s surprising showing? Has the Modi magic dissipated? And is Rahul Gandhi the new standard bearer of change?

To discuss these and many other questions, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sanjay Kumar. Sanjay is Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi and co-director of Lokniti, India’s premier public opinion research organization. Since 1996, Lokniti has carried out a National Election Study after every general election, creating a unique repository of knowledge on the political and social attitudes of the Indian citizen.

On the show, Milan and Sanjay discuss the key findings from this year’s National Election Study. They talk about the resonance of the INDIA alliance’s campaign, divergent outcomes in the Hindi belt, Modi’s declining popularity, and the emerging realignment in southern politics. Plus, the two discuss the reasons for India’s exit poll debacle.

Episode notes:

1. Suhas Palshikar, Sandeep Shastri, and Sanjay Kumar, “CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: There is no clear and close challenger to the BJP this time. ‘Ifs and buts’ apply,” Hindu, April 13, 2024.

2. Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar, and Suhas Palshikar, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: A return to an era of genuine coalitions,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.

3. Lokniti Team, “Post-poll survey: Methodology,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.

4. Sandeep Shastri, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Modi factor seems to have stagnated over a decade,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.

5. Sanjay Kumar and Fuhaar Bandhu, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP maintains advantage among young voters,” June 7, 2024.

6. Lokniti Team, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Clearing misconceptions about the post-poll survey,” Hindu, June 9, 2024.

7. “Decoding the 2024 Indian General Elections (with Sunetra Choudhury and Rahul Verma),” Grand Tamasha, June 6, 2024.

8. “Why India’s Modi Underperformed (with Ravi Agrawal, Yamini Aiyar, and Milan Vaishnav),” FP Live, June 7, 2024.

9. “India's 2024 Election—and its Aftermath (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, June 19, 2024.