Is China BACK?? (Corn Purchase Rumors)

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Rumors and China
3:27 Corn/Soybean Acreage Estimates
6:47 China Tariffs on Feb 1st?
8:24 South America Update
10:25 Strong Corn Shipments
🟢 US Corn Market Shows Positive Signs Amid China Rumors & Export Surge 🌽
There were rumors on Tuesday regarding potential Chinese purchases of US corn, following a Monday announcement from the Chinese government indicating plans to increase the scale of corn purchases and expand grain storage. Despite China’s imports of US corn being near zero this year, the possibility of increased demand has positively impacted the corn market, with spot-month corn futures reaching their best levels since October 2023. 📈🌾
📊 S&P Global Adjusts US Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates 🌱
S&P Global Commodity Insights has increased its forecast for US corn acreage to 93.5 million acres, a 700,000-acre increase from its previous estimate. This is a 2.9 million-acre increase compared to 2024. However, soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 700,000 acres, with the forecast now at 83.3 million acres. This aligns with USDA projections of 82.9 million acres for corn and 86.1 million acres for soybeans. 🌽
🚨 Trump Considers Tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 💼
President Donald Trump is weighing a 10% tariff on China as early as February 1, citing China’s role in the fentanyl trade. Trump is also considering a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the aim of curbing illegal immigration and addressing trade concerns. These potential tariffs come on the heels of earlier proposals for a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Traders are reacting to these ongoing developments, as tariffs could impact global trade and affect US exports. 💥
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Outlook Raised 🚜
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) has raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.7 million metric tons (mmt), up from 168.7mmt. Exports are expected to reach 106.1mmt, a 2.6mmt increase from previous estimates. Soybean crush is also expected to slightly rise to 57.1mmt. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazil’s crop at 169mmt, while Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 166.3mmt. 🌱🌍
📦 US Corn Exports Surpass Expectations 📈
US corn exports exceeded expectations last week, with 1.5mmt (61 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 16. This marked a 6.9% increase compared to the prior week and a 106% increase compared to the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, soybean shipments were disappointing, falling to 973,145mt (36 million bushels), 28% lower than the previous week and 18% lower than last year. Wheat shipments also fell short, down 13% from the prior week.