AI In 2030, Scaling Bottlenecks, And Explosive Growth Epoch After Hours podcast

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<div class="span index">1</div> <span><a class="" data-remote="true" data-type="html" href="/series/ted-business">TED Business</a></span>

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TED Business

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Whatever your business conundrum, there’s a TED Talk for that—whether you want to learn how to land that promotion, set smart goals, undo injustice at work, or unlock the next big innovation. Every Monday, host Modupe Akinola of Columbia Business School presents the most powerful and surprising ideas that illuminate the business world. After the talk, you'll get a mini-lesson from Modupe on how to apply the ideas in your own life. Because business evolves every day, and our ideas about it should, too. Follow Modupe on Instagram @mnakinola and LinkedIn @mnakinola Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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AI in 2030, Scaling Bottlenecks, and Explosive Growth

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In our first episode of Epoch After Hours, Ege, Tamay and Jaime dig into what they expect AI to look like by 2030; why economists are underestimating the likelihood of explosive growth; the startling regularity in technological trends like Moore's Law; Moravec’s paradox, and how we might overcome it; and much more!

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#Tech #Epoch AI #Artificial Intelligence #Machine Learning #Ai Forecasting

AI in 2030, Scaling Bottlenecks, and Explosive Growth

Epoch After Hours

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published рік тому

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MP3•Головна епізоду

2 епізоди

#Tech #Epoch AI #Artificial Intelligence #Machine Learning #Ai Forecasting

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Epoch After Hours

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Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines 4:03:03

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When might AI truly transform our world, and what will that transformation look like? Even within our own research team, timelines for AGI differ substantially. In this episode, the two Epoch AI researchers with the longest and the shortest AGI timelines candidly examine the roots of their disagreements. Ege and Matthew dissect each other’s views, and discuss the evidence, intuitions and assumptions that lead to their timelines diverging by factors of two or three for key transformative milestones. The hosts discuss: Their median timelines for specific milestones (like sustained 5%+ GDP growth) that highlight differences between optimistic and cautious AI forecasts. Whether AI-driven transformation will primarily result from superhuman researchers (a "country of geniuses") or widespread automation of everyday cognitive and physical tasks. Moravec's Paradox today: Why practical skills like agency and common sense remain challenging for AI despite advancements in reasoning, and how this affects economic impact. The interplay of hardware scaling, algorithmic breakthroughs, data availability (especially for agentic tasks), and the persistent challenge of transfer learning. Prediction pitfalls and why conventional academic AI forecasting might miss the mark. A world with AGI: moving from totalizing "single AGI" or "utopia vs. doom" narratives to consider economic forces, decentralized agents, and the co-evolution of AI and society.…

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AI in 2030, Scaling Bottlenecks, and Explosive Growth 2:02:22

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2:02:22

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