2024 Economic Horizon: Interest Rates, Inventory Dynamics, and Strategic Investment Moves

Commercial Real Estate Investing From A-Z

Will interest rates come down in 2024? What is the economic outlook? What will happen with inventory by the time the rates go down? Should you buy real estate right now? Chad Zdenek, real estate investor, and owner of CSQ Properties, shares his knowledge.

Read this entire interview here: http://tinyurl.com/8y6b9k57

You are in tune with the economy and economics. We have some interesting news on interest rates recently; let's dive into that and see where your thoughts are for 2024 and 2025.

The interest rates and how fast they increased have been a big shock to the real estate system. Any industry relying on borrowing has been challenged by the interest rate increases, and real estate has been hit particularly hard because we normally have 60 to 80% leverage on the commercial side, and that involves a lot of loans. Anyone on variable-rate loans has been feeling the pressure.

At the Fed Funds meeting, they mentioned they're not planning on increasing rates. They didn't increase rates, shifting away from the narrative we've been hearing for a while, which was higher for longer, meaning these interest rates, which increased the fastest in 40 years, were expected to remain high. The Federal Reserve aimed to take some steam out of the economy, but they've seen that while unemployment is still low, inflation has come down. That's encouraging, and they indicated they are looking towards three interest rate decreases next year. The 10-Year treasury, on which many mortgages in the commercial world are based, has already been retreating, and that good news for investors with debt on their properties. It will also indirectly affect cap rates, correlated with interest rates. Cap rates, how we value properties, have expanded, meaning property values have gone down, and different real estate sectors have seen different decreases, but with interest rates coming down, we hope cap rates will compress, and values will go up.

You started with multifamily and then moved to different asset classes; can you share your reasoning behind it? Why did you pick those asset classes?

I'm investing in three asset classes: multifamily, medical office, and self-storage. For people newer to real estate, they might see real estate as an asset class, but within real estate, there are several different asset classes.I was heavily invested in multifamily and knew I should diversify because you never know what will happen. I diversified into self-storage properties, which has been great. I also invest in California and out of California. Living in LA, I'm one of the rare investors who invest in California and out of state. Diversifying within different asset classes has been a good way to spread out the risk, especially with tenant rules and regulations constantly evolving, they're a lot more strict with multifamily than with self storage. Migration patterns affect both asset classes similarly, but tenant laws and COVID restrictions apply only to multifamily, not self-storage. During COVID, seeing restrictions in multifamily, I realized my investors were exposed to legislative liabilities. Diversifying into self-storage, with less regulation but good returns, has worked well.

The last 18 months have been crazy in the real estate world, and some people have a mutual fund or stock mindset, trying to time the market. A common saying in our world is that it's not about market timing; it's about time in the market. These should be long-term investments. Whether you buy at the bottom or 10% off the bottom, they should be viewed as long-term.

Chad Zdenek

www.ihelpbizownersretire.com