12 crowded trades to avoid in 2024

Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

No great investor ever got to where they are now by going with consensus.

If you believed the analyst consensus of 2022, 2023 was going to be another challenging year for asset allocation as economies and markets were forced to come to terms with inflation and interest rates remaining higher for longer. Many analysts continued to have a deep US-led recession and smooth Chinese reopening as their base case.

Some even dared to venture that the return on expensive equities would trend downwards while bonds would do the heavy lifting.

Well, that did not happen. And because of what actually occurred, research houses are repricing their views for 2024. The analyst consensus thinks equities will now rise 10% over the next 12 months, bond yields have peaked, a recession is now all but off the table, and the savage rate-hiking cycle may be replaced by an equally savage rate-cutting cycle.

So, will the consensus be proven wrong again? In this video, 12 of Australia's leading fund managers share with us a widely-held view they think will be proven wrong in 2024. From interest rates to weight loss drugs and the M&A landscape, there are plenty of places for investors to have The Street's view challenged.

Our featured experts include (in order of appearance):

• Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
• Vihari Ross, Antipodes
• Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
• Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
• Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
• Marc Whittaker, IML
• Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
• Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
• Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
• Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management

Note: These interviews were filmed on Tuesday 12 December 2023. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/12-things-investors-could-get-wrong-in-2024