"If Trump Wins, State Legislatures Are A Best Defense"

Burnt Toast by Virginia Sole-Smith

You’re listening to Burnt Toast!

I’m Virginia Sole-Smith. Today I’m chatting with Melissa Walker, head of Giving Circles at The States Project about how to save democracy.

And yes, it’s July 4, so we are technically off today—but it is also America’s birthday and a very, very scary and complicated time to be an American. We recorded this conversation before last week’s debate dumpster fire and this week’s horrific SCOTUS rulings — but I promise, it’s still the reassuring action plan you need right now.

The States Project works to flip state legislations blue around the country.

In 2022, Burnt Toast raised over $28,000 to hold ground in the Arizona State Senate. Last year we raised over $15,000 to elect majority making candidates in Virginia, where we defended the State Senate and flipped the House of Delegates to put a wall in front of Governor Youngkin’s right wing agenda.

I know November is looming, and many of us feel paralyzed with fear about Trump, and not so great about Biden. So Melissa explains why state legislatures are where we can focus our energy and do some real good—even if Trump wins again.

I’m setting a goal for the Burnt Toast Giving Circle to raise $20,000 this year, and I fully expect us to hit that, and exceed it. After you listen to this episode, be sure to vote in our poll for the state you want us to support. You can also start your own Giving Circle to support the state of your choice!

Join the BT Giving Circle!

Happy birthday, America! You’re a mess. But we’re trying to form a more perfect union here. Or honestly, anything even a step above dumpster fire would work.

PS. If you’re enjoying the podcast, make sure you’re following us (it’s free!) in your podcast player! We’re on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, and Pocket Casts! And while you’re there, please leave us a rating or review. (We like 5 stars!)

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Episode 150 Transcript

Melissa

I’m Melissa Walker, I am the head of Giving Circles at The States Project. We focus on shifting the balance of power in state legislatures to elect majorities that are focused on improving people’s lives.

Virginia

And you were on the podcast in 2022, when we first launched the Burnt Toast Giving Circle.

And I asked you to come back because, Melissa, everything feels bad right now. It truly seems like Trump will win in November. And I feel like we’re not even talking about it because we’re all just burnt out with fatigue. But you are this voice of reason in my life who’s always like, “This is what we focus on. This is what we do.” So can you talk us off some ledges, please?

Melissa

Yes, I can. First, I want to acknowledge the fatigue, because it’s very real and we all feel it. Your fatigue is definitely a feature, not a bug, of a right wing that wants to dismantle our democracy. So if you’re feeling it, know that that is perfectly normal and we’re all feeling it to some extent. But also know that the helplessness and the isolation paralyze us, and that can cause some really bad things.

I am lucky enough that I found a political path for me in December of 2016 when I heard New York State Senator Daniel Squadron speak about state legislatures. What I started to understand was that there were these 50 mini-congresses in our country where the right wing had been building power for decades, and where it turned out, I could have an impact. Being able to walk that path since 2016 has been therapy for me.

I think that gathering people in community and taking action in whatever form you do, it is the antidote to despair. It is also the only thing that has ever worked to move a democracy. As Margaret Mead said, “Never doubt that a small group of committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”

And I really believe in that.

Virginia

And it’s what the other side has been doing for decades, as you said. They’ve been changing the world for the worse. So now we need to be that small group of committed citizens.

Melissa

That’s correct.

Virginia

Tell us a little bit about how The States Project works and what you’re focusing on for 2024.

Melissa

State legislatures are the places where everything that we care about domestically is decided, from education funding to environmental policy to health care to civil rights to abortion to the course of our democracy, voting rights, and gerrymandering, the drawing of the district lines that decide who goes to Congress—it’s all happening in the hands of state lawmakers.

These are not folks who people will have heard of. They are not going to be the spotlight races or the names on MSNBC at night. But they are the people who are deciding state by state by state what rights Americans have and get to keep. It’s an incredibly important power center.

So The States Project does a 99 state chamber analysis every year—it’s 99 because Nebraska is unicameral. We figure out where we can target to try to shift power to elect majorities to improve people’s lives or break a right wing supermajority or defend against one. We figure out which races we need to go into to support with tactics and resources to make that happen.

This is where the right wing has been building power for decades, no matter who’s been in the White House. And a lot of things that I think people remember, like the bathroom bill, the Stand Your Ground gun laws, the Flint, Michigan water crisis—those are all things that happened under an Obama presidency because the right wing had taken over state legislatures. This is where the rubber meets the road on policy and where we have to focus if we want to build back our democracy.

Virginia

I mean, that’s weirdly reassuring because if those horrible things could happen under an Obama presidency, it means another Trump presidency wouldn’t necessarily have the impact that we’re all fearing, if we can make this progress in the State legislatures.

Melissa

Yes. States will be a best line of defense if Trump is to win the presidency. Because states are the places where we can protect a lot of our rights and even advance them. Michigan ’22 is a great example. Michigan is a state where The States Project has been working since 2018 and making gains each year. But in 2022, we were finally able to help flip the State House and the State Senate—both of them flipped by one seat. Both of those seats were won by fewer than 400 votes. And with that trifecta—meaning Gretchen Whitmer in the governor’s mansion, and majorities in both the State House and the State Senate—Michigan has been able to codify the right to abortion, pass free breakfast and lunch for public school children, end right to work laws so unions can be strong again, and they passed the strongest climate bill in the country last fall—stronger than New York’s or California’s.

All of that is because of one seat majorities in the state legislature. And again, not with politicians you will have heard of, but with that power shift comes real policy shift that changes people’s lives in Michigan and becomes a model for the rest of the country about what is possible when we elect people who are focused on improving lives.

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Virginia

So tell us which states you’re focusing on for 2024. We’re going to put a poll in the show notes so that we can vote on where our Giving Circle should focus our energy.

Melissa

Great. Yes. So we will be in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to defend new majorities that we recently were able to win.

All those majorities won on very slim margins. In fact, the ones that I just mentioned in Michigan were the largest margins of those three states. In Minnesota, we were able to flip the State House by 191 votes. And in Pennsylvania, the State Senate, we flipped 12 seats, and the last one was won by 63 votes.

Virginia

Oh my gosh.

Melissa

So what I really want to tell the Burnt Toast crowd is that each Giving Circle really matters in this work. If every piece of the basketweave isn’t there, these are the margins that we’re winning or losing on. So we’ll be back to defend in those states.

And in addition, in Pennsylvania, we’ll be working on the Pennsylvania Senate as well to try to get to a tie there. Only half the seats are up so we’re looking for a tie in 2024. That will help us set up for 2026 flip.

We’ll also be in Arizona to try to flip both chambers. We are two seats away from a flip in each chamber, one seat away from a tie. And that margin has held for the past few years. We are really, really close to flipping Arizona. There’s a Democratic governor. It’s an incredibly important state, obviously. All the states are important, but it’s a presidential swing state, so we’ll be in Arizona.

We will also be in New Hampshire to try to flip the State House and tie the State Senate. That’s another, of course, swing state.

And then we’re in a few states to try to break right wing super majorities. So we’re in North Carolina today to break a right wing supermajority. We just need one seat in the State House to do that.

And we’re in Kansas to try to break a right wing supermajority for a Democratic governor Laura Kelly. Breaking those super majorities means that a Democratic governor has veto power which is incredibly important. One illustration of that is in Kansas where we saw voters come to the polls in Kansas and reject abortion restrictions, but the state legislature passed them anyway. When the governor vetoed them, they overturned her veto because of the supermajority. So if we’re able to break that supermajority those vetoes can stand and that’s a really important power shift that needs to happen in Kansas. Especially because the will of the voters is being completely ignored.

We will also be in Nevada to try to build a supermajority against a right wing governor who vetoes everything. We’d love to be able to overturn those vetoes.

And then in Wisconsin, we are going to be working to flip the assembly, which is what they call their state house. And Wisconsin has new maps and this is the first time that we actually see a path to shifting power there because of those new maps that are fairer than they’ve been in years in Wisconsin. So that’s a big lift, but an exciting new state for us to be in.

Virginia

Every state listed above is linked to its page on the State Project’s website so you can read up on them if you like. It turns out that Substack’s poll feature only lets me list 4 options, so here’s a Google Poll everyone can use to vote!

Which state should BT support?

If your state doesn’t get picked for the Burnt Toast giving circle, however, you can start your own giving circle to raise money for the state that you are most focused on. Melissa, tell folks how they do that.

Melissa

So I should say a couple of things about Giving Circles. One is that it is often cheaper to change the balance of power in an entire State Chamber than it is to win a single competitive congressional seat. Congressional races cost millions and millions of dollars and state legislative races do not.

So, if you think, “Well my Giving Circle won’t be big enough to make a difference,” I beg to differ. Because dollars at this level go so incredibly far. Whatever you are thinking about investing politically this year—because I know everyone is looking for a place where they can really have impact—think about having that impact and then inviting 10 other people to come in and match what you gave. You’ve just given 10 times what you individually are able to do. And that’s the beauty of Giving Circles. It’s the community coming together for collective power. I think it’s a real antidote for that isolation and helplessness that a lot of us tend to feel when we watch what’s happening on the national scene.

I should also say this, because I think it’s really important: Last year, Congress passed about 30 bills. Michigan, with that new trifecta, passed 321. This is absolutely where things are moving.

If you care about Congress, you should care about state legislatures, because state legislatures draw the district lines that decide who goes to Congress in 70 percent of the country.

If you care about the Supreme Court, you should care about state legislatures because the Supreme Court doesn’t write laws, they rule on laws that are coming out of state legislatures. It was a Mississippi law that took down Roe and if that one hadn’t done it, there were 16 other states that had queued up abortion bans right after Kavanaugh was confirmed with the explicit purpose of rising up to the Supreme Court to challenge Roe. Those laws are coming from state legislatures.

If you care about the presidency, you should care about state legislatures because not only do state legislators decide who can vote and when and how and when to purge the rolls or close polling places, but also because the path that the Trump team tried to steal the presidency and 2020 ran directly through state legislatures. It wasn’t senators or congresspeople that Trump called to the Oval Office in December of 2020, it was state legislators from Michigan and Arizona and Pennsylvania. He was asking them to change their electoral college votes because state legislatures are in charge of their state’s elections.

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And what I say to everyone who starts a Giving Circle at any level is that they’ve turned on the porch light for strategic political giving and that is a gift to everyone in their networks—their friends, their families and their neighbors—because everyone is looking for that right now.

So I really appreciate the Burnt Toast community having a Giving Circle. I hope folks will join. I should also mention that in 2023, the Burnt Toast Giving Circle helped us focus on Virginia where we were able to defend the State Senate and flip the House of Delegates, so that there is a wall in front of Governor Youngkin’s rightwing agenda. There were a lot of articles about Governor Youngkin and his national ambitions and his plan for an abortion ban in Virginia last fall. But you haven’t read much about him lately and that is because the legislature has blocked everything that he’s trying to do, and that was partly because of the Burnt Toast Giving Circle.

Virginia

Good work us! Yes, yes.

Melissa

Start a States Project Giving circle at statesproject.org if you’ve got your own crew, and just don’t give into the helplessness and despair. We do not have to be witnesses to what is happening in our country. We can absolutely be active participants to make it better.

Virginia

I mean, I feel so much better when I talk to you about this. There is a clear path, this is a thing we can all do. It’s doable. We can do this and we just need to come together and make it happen.

Thank you so much for hopping on to talk about this. I’m excited to see which state Burnt Toast picks to focus on (vote here!) and to hear from everybody starting their own Giving Circles. Keep in touch. We want to know what you’re doing and what you’re focusing on.

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Melissa

Amazing. Thank you so much.

Virginia

Thanks, Melissa.

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The Burnt Toast Podcast is produced and hosted by Virginia Sole-Smith (follow me on Instagram) and Corinne Fay who runs @SellTradePlus and Big Undies—subscribe for 20% off.

The Burnt Toast logo is by Deanna Lowe.

Our theme music is by Jeff Bailey and Chris Maxwell.

Tommy Harron is our audio engineer.

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