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The Killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani | Initial Observations
Manage episode 311373500 series 3114761
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The killing of Iranian Al-Quds Force Commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani by the United States (January 3rd, 2020), launched a shock wave that ripples through the Middle East.
Qassem Soleimani was the Al-Quds Force commander. The Al -Quds force is an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). The IRG reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Soleimani was the spearhead, the lead strategist – in charge of designing, leading, and implementing Iran’s hegemonic vision in the Middle East. His role was to spread Iran’s reach and influence and make Iran the superpower in the region. And he did so primarily by creating, supporting, and nurturing a network of militias throughout the Middle East including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Iraqi Shi’ite militias, Yemeni Houthi forces, Afghan and Pakistani Shi’ites militias, etc. Under Soleimani’s command, Iran deepened its hold in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip.
Some argue that the assassination of Soleimani will increase tensions in the Middle East. This outlook confuses cause and effect: Tensions in the Middle East have intensified over the past decade because of the violent Iranian aggression which Soleimani spearheaded. Aggression which has led to Syria's destruction and the disintegration of Lebanon and Iraq. Aggression that threatens maritime routes and safe passage in the Arab (Persian) Gulf and the Red Sea, a direct attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities that spiked oil prices and compromised the world's oil supply. Aggression that has fueled and intensified tensions - including direct military confrontations - between Iran and its proxies and Israel.
What to expect over the next few days?
In my view, Iraq will be the main arena.
From a regional point of view, an internal flare-up in Iraq could lead to a drastic Iranian move, which has two possible – and perhaps parallel tracks. One track is a missile attack on Israel from western Iraq. The other is direct Iranian military intervention in Iraq.
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