Two Quants And A Financial Planner podcast

59:43

In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience. We discuss: Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realize The danger of mistaking easy markets for safe ones How structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risks The behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy times What history teaches us about mispricings and market resilience Whether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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QE Myths. Free Trade Lies. Fatal Mistakes | 12 Great Investors Share Their Most Unpopular Beliefs 51:34

7 днів тому51:34

51:34

Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs. 🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour. Topics Covered: Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan) The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri) Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer) A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian) Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice) Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton) When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler) The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell) The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux) Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater) Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan) 07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri) 11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer) 15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen) 19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian) 23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice) 27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson) 31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton) 34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler) 41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell) 44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux) 48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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20,000 Watched in Silence. Then Buffett Dropped the Bombshell. | What It Means for Berkshire 1:09:55

28 днів тому1:09:55

1:09:55

In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values. Topics Covered: The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignation Firsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meeting Why Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it mattered Reflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder community The Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's future Why more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approach The role of tradition in building enduring businesses Personal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Great Distortion: The Hidden Impact of Passive Investing | Practical Lessons from Mike Green 52:36

6 weeks тому52:36

52:36

In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio. Topics Covered: Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behavior The QDIA effect and its unintended consequences The breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocks Why international markets continue to underperform Mike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economy The real lesson investors should take from all this What individual investors can realistically do about it…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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Sequence Risk Can Derail Your Retirement: Here is How to Stop It | Practical Lessons from Wade Pfau 1:02:38

7 weeks тому1:02:38

1:02:38

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately. **Topics Covered:** * Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Seismic Shift Markets Are Missing | Practical Lessons from Ben Hunt & Grant Williams 1:05:57

8 weeks тому1:05:57

1:05:57

In this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights. Topics Covered: Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore The market as a political utility and what that really means The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses How narratives shape market behavior and prices The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Diversification Delusion | The Risk that Leaves Both Stocks and Bonds Exposed 59:47

9 weeks тому59:47

59:47

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward. Topics Covered: Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymore The impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocation Risk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environments The argument for real assets: real estate and commodities An overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profile The rise of managed futures and how they improve diversification The psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them) Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternatives Cliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-taking How to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Irrecoverable Error: Risk, Ruin, and the Rules of Wealth | Practical Lessons from Guy Spier 1:06:31

10 weeks тому1:06:31

1:06:31

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term success The myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over time How to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond money Aligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticity Managing other people’s money with care, respect, and humility Learning from mistakes and the importance of reputation The priceless value of community and true friendships…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran 1:08:07

12 weeks тому1:08:07

1:08:07

Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value. Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing. The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics. The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris. Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio. The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes. The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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Tariffs Are Here. The Market is Down. Here is What It Means for Investors 1:05:02

14 weeks тому1:05:02

1:05:02

In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm. Main Topics Covered: Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers. Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment. Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved. National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan. DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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Most Great Traders Failed First: These Key Rules Saved Them | Practical Lessons from Jack Schwager 49:14

14 weeks тому49:14

49:14

In this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life. From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds. Main Topics Covered: Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively. The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them. Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential. Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom. The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time. How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches. Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules. Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades. Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow. The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses. How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past. Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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75% of Investors Will Disagree with These Ideas: Evidence Says They are True 55:37

15 weeks тому55:37

55:37

In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders 52:43

16 weeks тому52:43

52:43

In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels. Main topics covered: • The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting • Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times • The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions • How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading • Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following • The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions • Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management • Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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Value Investing: Dead or Just Misunderstood? | Special Guest: Tobias Carlisle 1:07:59

17 weeks тому1:07:59

1:07:59

In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen. They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded. Topics covered: • Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years • Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns • The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating • How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities • The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse • Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue • How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance…

Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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Practical Lessons from Bob Elliott 58:01

18 weeks тому58:01