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Вміст надано Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
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Eli Beer is a pioneer, social entrepreneur, President and Founder of United Hatzalah of Israel. In thirty years, the organization has grown to more than 6,500 volunteers who unite together to provide immediate, life-saving care to anyone in need - regardless of race or religion. This community EMS force network treats over 730,000 incidents per year, in Israel, as they wait for ambulances and medical attention. Eli’s vision is to bring this life-saving model across the world. In 2015, Beer expanded internationally with the establishment of branches in South America and other countries, including “United Rescue” in Jersey City, USA, where the response time was reduced to just two minutes and thirty-five seconds. Episode Chapters (0:00) intro (1:04) Hatzalah’s reputation for speed (4:48) Hatzalah’s volunteer EMTs and ambucycles (5:50) Entrepreneurism at Hatzalah (8:09) Chutzpah (14:15) Hatzalah’s recruitment (18:31) Volunteers from all walks of life (22:51) Having COVID changed Eli’s perspective (26:00) operating around the world amid antisemitism (28:06) goodbye For video episodes, watch on www.youtube.com/@therudermanfamilyfoundation Stay in touch: X: @JayRuderman | @RudermanFdn LinkedIn: Jay Ruderman | Ruderman Family Foundation Instagram: All About Change Podcast | Ruderman Family Foundation To learn more about the podcast, visit https://allaboutchangepodcast.com/ Looking for more insights into the world of activism? Be sure to check out Jay’s brand new book, Find Your Fight , in which Jay teaches the next generation of activists and advocates how to step up and bring about lasting change. You can find Find Your Fight wherever you buy your books, and you can learn more about it at www.jayruderman.com .…
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
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Вміст надано Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
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Вміст надано Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. Весь вміст подкастів, включаючи епізоди, графіку та описи подкастів, завантажується та надається безпосередньо компанією Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy або його партнером по платформі подкастів. Якщо ви вважаєте, що хтось використовує ваш захищений авторським правом твір без вашого дозволу, ви можете виконати процедуру, описану тут https://uk.player.fm/legal.
His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered. NOTES “Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504 Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important disclaimer below. NOTES USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/ Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “ A CPI-Futures Market ” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe Milton Friedman, “ Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards ” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554 William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS ” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551 Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/ Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/ Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/ Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/ Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/ Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/ Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise. NOTES Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/ Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen. Listen to this (unscripted!) episode to hear what he means by this. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem! NOTES Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high? More next week... NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything. Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.) NOTES Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big And Small https://amzn.to/4hKssS8 Blog Post on interest rates and inflation: “Enough with Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/ Blog Post on Corn: “Corn Prices – Has the Correction Run its Course?” https://inflationguy.blog/2022/09/21/corn-prices-has-the-correction-run-its-course/ Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force! NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ ) Blog on "Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations" from August 2020 https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!) NOTES Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity: Ep. 10: A High-Velocity Tour of Velocity ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-10-a-high-velocity-tour-of-velocity/ ) Ep. 34: Velocity Turns Higher...Whoops! ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/velocity-turns-higherwhoops/ ) Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-50-what-the-money-velocity-comeback-means-for-inflation-and-investors/ ) Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-108-revisiting-velocity-myths-and-reality/ ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support. Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress. The Inflation Guy in today's episode discussed three things about tariffs that you might have thought you knew...and certainly everyone else seems to think they know...but which don't really work that way in the real world. NOTES Yesterday’s Inflation Guy blog on this topic: “Trump Tactical Targeted Tariffs: A Reminder of the Impact of Tariffs” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/29/trump-tactical-targeted-tariffs-a-reminder-of-the-impact-of-tariffs/ Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications? Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process. Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so . Find out why. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not. However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the data, but more importantly focuses on how the data is surely going to be different going forward due to many, many causes for inflection that are operating right now. This will change data, markets, and narratives. The IG guides you through it all! NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ ) Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ ) Website for California Wildfire official tracking ( https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thing to think about, when it comes to those fires - but it is worth thinking about all of the implications of large-scale disasters. ERRATUM- IG refers to Bullard. Brain freeze. He meant Waller, a current member of the Board of Governors at the Fed. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/12/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2024/ ) Last 2024 Podcast “Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ ) Old Blog: “Some Effects on Inflation from Harvey and Irma” (from 2017) ( https://inflationguy.blog/2017/09/11/some-effects-on-inflation-from-harvey-and-irma/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy. That is changing. Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains what that means for the future of inflation. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
This is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire , says the Inflation Guy (or he would say that, were he French) - firing Federal workers is a positive supply shock. Listen, and find out in what way laying off Federal workers is like mass deportations of illegal immigrants. NOTES Goodhart, Charles and Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (Product link: https://amzn.to/493QbJK ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the Fed-Congress quid-pro-quo that has existed for decades now puts the FOMC in a sticky situation. NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th. NOTES Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Blog post on sizing positions when volatility changes: “Kicking Tails” (Feb 2018) https://inflationguy.blog/2018/02/12/kicking-tails/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/ ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy. Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic. NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
The Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio. Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast! NOTES David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. ( https://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is. NOTES Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions , Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012) ( https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 ) Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats ( https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ ) Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index? ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode , the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's decision about whether to cut rates by 25bps or 50bps next week. Listen to find out why! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below! NOTES Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ ) WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” ( https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3 ) Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” ( https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ ) Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” ( https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ ) NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” ( https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's time for another CPI Report analysis, and the Inflation Guy wades through the confusing report to conclude that...it's not quite as good as it looks. In Episode 106, he talked about a "Potential Pony Situation." Is this a reverse pony situation? What the heck does that even mean? Who writes this stuff? NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-106-this-months-cpi-report-a-potential-pony-situation/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means. NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
Perhaps a little less coffee would be in order. The Inflation Guy in this episode wanders through several topics, including the Biden Administration's proposal for national rent control, the eviction moratorium, different measures of rent inflation, market volatility and where to hide for the next 110 days until the US election. Focus, man, focus. Still, he has useful contributions on these topics! Listen and see. NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-37-bad-idea-of-the-year-wage-and-price-controls/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies” ( https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep74-inflation-folk-remedies/ ) (This is the one the IG mentioned where he discusses ATRR and NTRR). Blog Post: “The Residual Effect on Rent Inflation of the Eviction Moratorium” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/18/the-residual-effect-on-rent-inflation-of-the-eviction-moratorium/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” ( https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
It's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode. NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
One of the absolute rock-solid articles of faith in the economics community is the proposition that increasing interest rates causes inflation to decline. If you want to slow inflation by a lot, you need to increase interest rates a lot. There is no question that increasing interest rates slows economic growth, and hurts people by doing so. The only reason to do it is because economists believe strongly that it brings down inflation. But what if it doesn't? In this podcast, the Inflation Guy argues that neither logic nor empirical observations support the notion that increasing interest rates - especially in the absence of restricted money growth - causes inflation to decline. And the basic reason that this relationship is indeterminate is easy to understand. The IG explains. NOTES Last Week’s Great Podcast! Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises Chart of Interest Rates vs Inflation: https://bit.ly/4eJTZly Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
On this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means. Andy Fately, last heard from in Episode 66 of this podcast, is a veteran of more than 40 years in the foreign exchange markets, trading spot, forwards and options as well as running businesses for major US and international commercial and investment banks. He is known as the FX Poet ( https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/ ), but really focused on creating solutions for risk managers for problems as they arise. Susan Joseph, new to the program, is the Executive Director of FinTech at Cornell, and also engages as Fractional GC and Consultant, advising on crypto and digital assets strategy and its interaction with the regulatory world with a focus on the technical and legal interactions. Susan also educates through continuing legal education classes on blockchain, crypto, digital assets, and AI at Cornell, MIT, Stanford, PLI, and ABA and is a recognized expert. She has served as Secretary for both insurer and fintech boards, is an Advisor to certain crypto and other startups, and is the pro bono Executive Director of Diversity in Blockchain, a 501(c)(3) that supports inclusion. NOTES FX Poet: https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/ Article “ Central Bank Digital Currencies: Some Considerations ,” by Andrew Fately and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration). Article “ How CBDC’s May Impact Inflation ,” by Michael Ashton, Andrew Fately, and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration). Article “ Dirty Laundry ” on DW Birch Substack Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
This month's CPI was a good number - happy news! But if the Inflation Guy was going to design a 'good number' from scratch, he wouldn't make it look like this. He would start at the other end. What does that mean? Take a listen, and find out why this is a good report and a 'goods' report, but maybe not a great report. NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
At the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks. NOTES Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Guy's take on those questions! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024) Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!" - General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye. The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far beyond - the track record of overly-confident predictions that ultimately turn out to be hilariously wrong is alive and well. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the most-recent candidate, from last week... NOTES Blog Callback: “ You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away ” Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” Blog for last month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) Interesting Interactive CPI Chart the IG Didn't Even Mention But is Worth Looking At To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize for him. NOTES Blog Callback: “ Enough With Interest Rates Already ” Podcast Callback: “ Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors ” Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.' NOTES Dan Bongino Show from April 18 ( https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark. Forbes “ Medical Analysis by Milton Friedman ” (2009) Washington Post “ Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units ” Blog Callback: “ Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka ” Important article: “ The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today ” Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode! NOTES Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828 Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019 Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019 To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard. In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors. NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy? NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money? Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit. Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it? To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up. The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before! NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation? Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds) Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0 Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal. Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners. Now for some cake! NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0 Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024) Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’ Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security Website: IMX Health Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses. This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in P&C businesses with inflation hedges but rather through increasing reinsurance coverage. That's inefficient, and the Inflation Guy explains why. Insurance and inflation! What could be more interesting than combining those two exciting topics? NOTES Article: Inflation on insured values main reason for Travelers extra reinsurance protection, says CFO Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/…
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