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#Trading #Business #Derek Moore

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In 1910, Dorothy Arnold—a wealthy, educated socialite from New York City—left her home for a shopping trip and never returned.

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The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

330 епізодів

Broken Pie Chart

updated 5 днів тому

Поширити

Головна серій•Feed

330 епізодів

#Trading #Business #Derek Moore

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Broken Pie Chart

1
60/40 Portfolio vs Hedged Equity | CNBC Markets in Turmoil | Tired Fed Interest Rate Debate 37:22

5 днів тому37:22

37:22

Derek Moore looks to answer the question on whether Hedged Equity or the 60/40 stock bond portfolio is a better fit given where we are and why. How bonds had a 40-year bull market but is it likely that is possible again given where we are? Later, looking at market returns after CNBC does their ‘markets in turmoil’ specials when markets are selling off. Plus, why debate about should or shouldn’t the Fed lower rates is getting tired and does it even matter outside of housing? Debate around Fed lowering rates Impact of Fed rates on real estate housing market Spread between 10-year treasury yield and the 30-year treasury bond yield 60/40 portfolio vs hedged equity portfolio Dynamics of falling and rising interest rate environments Short interest on the high side on the total US market Contrarian indicators Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Geopolitical Risk | Most Volatile Decade? |Housing Is Cheap? | Gold & Oil Get a Bid 41:42

12 днів тому41:42

41:42

Derek Moore examines markets around historical geopolitical events. Plus, the 2020s are trending to be the most volatile decade and by the way we are up over 80% so far. Then, looking at the pop in gold and crude oil this week and perspective on where those markets are. Plus, a contrarian take that housing is actually cheap. Later talking semiconductor stocks, the US dollar index, inflation, and useless sentiment surveys. 1-year forward inflation expectations U-Michigan survey Sentiment gets better Gold breaks out of its most recent range while crude oil breaks back into its prior range US Dollar bearishness is the prevailing opinion so is it too crowded of a view? Semiconductors 40%+ off the bottom but still sideways since their all-time high in July 2024 Markets 1-year later after geopolitical events Will the 2020s have the most 1% +/- days ever? S&P 500 Index earnings expectations forward 12 months update Price per square foot US Housing National average Is housing cheap when considering adjustments for inflation and average square footage? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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6000 Baby! | Market Breadth Narrows| Rolling 10 Year S&P 500 Returns | Tesla Elon vs. Trump 24:47

19 днів тому24:47

24:47

Derek Moore looks at how companies in the S&P 500 are not correlated while the equal weighted S&P 500 is correlated closely with the weighted S&P 500 Index. Later, looking at historical rolling 10-year returns in the market and why it’s rare to have periods that are negative over longer time frames. Plus, touching on single stock risk a la Elon Musk, Tesla, and Trump public news hurts Tesla shares. Oh, and we are only 2.4% below the old all-time high. S&P 500 Index now only 2.4% from a new all-time high Market Breadth definition and how its narrowing currently Mag 7 performance dispersion Elon vs Trump Rolling 10-year returns in the S&P 500 Index Single stock risk vs diversified indexes Mentioned in this Episode ZEGA Concentrated stock and white paper on Concentrated Stock Hedging https://zegainvestments.com/products/concentrated-stock Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Wrong on Inflation | NVDA Earnings | PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation | Sell in May Didn’t Work 28:46

26 днів тому28:46

28:46

Derek Moore explains how what sometimes seems obvious isn’t what happens as we can see with inflation numbers that continue to move lower despite consumer sentiment surveys expecting 6.6% inflation in the next year. Plus, NVDA had its earnings and the stock’ forward PE is lower due to the next 12-month analyst estimates being near all-time highs. Plus, sell in May would have been a mistake as markets recovered and are now back to within several percent of all-time highs. PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation NVDA forward PE ratio and earnings EPS estimates Calendar Spreads vs Diagonal spreads explained Inflation continues to be lower University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey says 1-year inflation 6.6% Atlanta FED GDP Now EconPi Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Bond Yield Problem? | NVidia Options Implied Volatility | US Dollar Falls | Did 60/40 Save Investors Last 5 Years? 38:15

5 weeks тому38:15

38:15

Derek Moore talks about seeing stories of exploding 30-year yields but what if they are low compared to historical relationships between the fed funds rate? Then, looking at how correlated the 60/40 portfolio has been over the last 5 years begging the question, did it do anything for investors? Later, looking at NVidia implied volatility ahead of its big earnings release this week to see what the options market is pricing in for a potential one standard deviation move? All this and more this week. S&P 500 Index net profit margins expected next 12 months The US Dollar index breaks below its trendline Nvidia earnings and the options market Forecasting expected 1-standard deviation moves using implied volatility Correlations between the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio last 5 years Historical average of the spread between the 30 Year Treasury and the Fed Funds Rate Should the 30-year treasury yield be higher? Japan bond yields normalize reaching highest levels going back to 2007 Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are Common | S&P 500 Profit Margins Strong | Consumer Confidence Contrarian Indicator 40:43

6 weeks тому40:43

40:43

Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future. All that and more this week. S&P 500 Index net profit margins for Q1 2025 Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are low but is that a good thing? Looking at how often intra year lows on average are -14% but often markets end higher 12-month inflation expectations are now 7.3% highest since 1981 Hard vs soft data Velocity of M2 Money Stock What has been working asset class wise in 2025 YTD 15 biggest rallies since 1950 and subsequent forward total returns Atlanta Fed GDP Now Investment banks starting to reduce recession probabilities Attribution of earnings EPS growth DeGraaf and Zweig Breadth Thrusts occurring within 1 month of each other Explaining the difference between Moodys, Fitch, and S&P bond ratings Moodys downgrades US Debt Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast 30:34

7 weeks тому30:34

30:34

Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500 Index Why companies entering and leaving helps the long-term growth of the index Where to look for emerging candidates to enter the S&P 500 Index Vanguard Extended Market ETF Should the Fed have lowered rates? What is the Trueflation index? CPI inflation for April released this week Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Trueflation vs CPI Inflation Mentioned in this Episode Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting Sam Ro article on S&P 500 Index company turnover https://www.tker.co/p/s-and-p-500-turnover-goldman-sachs-forecast?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Vanguards Extended Market ETF https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vxf#portfolio-composition Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later 34:55

8 weeks тому34:55

34:55

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What is an almost bear market? Unemployment review after Friday’s release Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting? Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March AAII investors still mega bearish Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal? Why the Fed didn’t end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn’t do anything Sell in May and go away? Best historical time periods for returns Mentioned in this Episode Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-says-225359048.html Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move | 33:23

9 weeks тому33:23

33:23

Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more. Apple earnings implied volatility What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90% All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates Earnings have been good so far but what about the future? Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary Container shipping volume and capacity are all down Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still 28:47

10 weeks тому28:47

28:47

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment. Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren’t the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow! 32:35

11 weeks тому32:35

32:35

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9% Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days Bond yields surging is a problem Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days The VIX Index wasn’t pricing the crazy daily moves we’ve seen in markets Why investors shouldn’t panic sell Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions 59:53

12 weeks тому59:53

59:53

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we reach capitulation? The market is cheaper so will people step in and buy? The problem analysts have in making forecasts given the tariff landscape Explaining implied volatility vs historical volatility Why was the VIX higher after the first bad day Thursday Discussing how a VIX closes at 45 is significant Remembering sentiment at different inflection points in the market like 2020, 2015 2000 etc Markets are back to where they were in August when the Yen Carry trade unwound Why investors shouldn’t panic The case for using hedged equity strategies What does a bottom look like? Market is much cheaper on a forward valuation basis What are the economic risks? Unemployment was fine and the economy was adding jobs so what’s the problem? Atlanta Fed GDP Update Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility 41:58

13 weeks тому41:58

41:58

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1 ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots 38:18

14 weeks тому38:18

38:18

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still Fed dot plots Fed Funds Futures rate expectations Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates LEI Leading Economic Indicator Mentioned in this Episode Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=Using%20the%20Composite%20Indexes:%20The%20Leading%20Economic,economy%20is%20heading%20in%20the%20near%20term.&text=The%20CEI's%20four%20component%20indicators%E2%80%94payroll%20employment%2C%20personal,used%20to%20determine%20recessions%20in%20the%20US . CME Fed watch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless 35:58

15 weeks тому35:58