With goals increasing in value every year, awarded penalties, heavily increase in value as well. Today we’ll be looking at the true value of a penalty by using the expected goals model and also checking what monetary impact penalties can have. On top of the emotional impact of course. So here we arrive at this episode’s topic: the penalty; the puni…

This is Model Behaviour, the podcast about football statistics and performance analysis. In this podcast I take a look at this relatively hidden side of football. The numbers behind the shots, the stats behind the plays, the odds versus the results.Michiel Krygsman