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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Friday 16th May 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. It’s been a frantic week of deal making by the US President. Was this always part of the plan? To create a destabilising set of circumstances that whets the appetite for deals with the US? P…
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Friday 16th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer retail sales and slower growth in produce prices has upped expectations for the speed of Fed cuts this year, pushing bond yields lower today. It’s been a curious session, with NAB’s Ray Attrill saying equities, bonds and the doll…
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Thursday 15th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets were a little more restrained today, perhaps because there were no big announcements to drive the enthusiasm. Tech is the exception, that continues to move up. And deals with Japan and South Kores are close, apparently.…
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Wednesday 14th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s no denying, President Trump and his team are out to do deals and, right now, markets seem to be loving in. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through today’s market action, which has seen a significant rise in tech stocks, helped by ne…
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Tuesday 13th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were taken aback by the size and immediacy of tariff cuts announced Monday between China and the US. Although we did highlight it as a possibility in yesterday’s podcast. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it wasn’t just the size of the t…
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Monday 12th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there had been ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations with China over the weekend. Maybe the US is feeling the pressure, with stores warning of supply shortages. China, meanwhile, according to trad…
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Friday 9th May 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The commercial real estate (CRE) market has struggled post-COVID, with working from home and online shopping both taking a chunk out of demand for properties. But the tide is starting to turn…
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Friday 9th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have seen the positive side of the US-UK trade deal. It’s a sign that deals can be done to reduce tariffs, but NAB’s Ken Crompton wonders whether sentiment is running ahead of itself. Although there are some carves out for sector…
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Thursday 8th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets took a hit when the Fed announced no change in interest rates, even though it was expected by just about everyone. Then shares picked up as Jerome Powell gave his press conference, in which he talked up the current st…
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Wednesday 7th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US President has made it clear there won’t be negotiations back and forth on tariffs, he’ll simply make the call. NAB’s Sally Auld says that accounts for most of the uncertainty in markets today, with big falls in equities again. …
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Tuesday 6th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s much less enthusiasm in the markets today, with US equities finishing deeply in the red at session lows, finishing a nine-day winning streak. There’s no readily apparent reason, except perhaps for concerns the scope and timing o…
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Monday 5th May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a risk-on Friday, as the price of equities rose, and repricing of Fed rate cut expectations saw bond yields rising too. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are two reasons for this optimism. First, the continued hope that some so…
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Friday 2nd May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian house prices are back on the rise, but how sustainable is this growth considering global economic uncertainty. Or will any potential external factors be more than offset by falling interest rates? Core Logic’s Eliza Owen joins…
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Friday 2nd May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session heavy on news and data, largely seen as positive, particularly inequity markets although they lost some of their gains towards the US close. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says two things were driving shares higher. First, yest…
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Thursday 1st May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to a larger than expected fall in US GDP reported this morning. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters suggests, equity markets clawed their way back in late trade. Perhaps its because the fall was largely driven by short term fa…
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Wednesday 30th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are in the thick of economic data today - Aussie CPI, European and US GDP, US wages and the core PCE deflator. We’ve just seen weaking confidence in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Yet equity markets continue to rise. In f…
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Tuesday 29th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were more subdued for most of the session overnight, with shares in the US down until a reversal in the last hour of trade. The hopes of a quick resolution to US-China is seeming less likely. For a start, are the two sides ta…
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Monday 28th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets stayed positive through most of last week on the hope that trade deals will be done, and tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture. But Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what if deals aren’t done. A so…
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Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall…
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Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by …
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Wednesday 23rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deal…
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Tuesday 22nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President ha…
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Thursday 17th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickl…
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Thursday 17th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Things are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade sig…
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Wednesday 16th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrig…
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Tuesday 15th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps…
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Monday 14th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queu…
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Friday 11th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at …
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Friday 11th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the que…
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Thursday 10th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from …
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Wednesday 9th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don…
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Tuesday 8th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approa…
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Monday 7th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the…
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Friday 4th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief econ…
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Friday 4th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on th…
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Thursday 3rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you list…
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Wednesday 2nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with t…
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Tuesday 1st April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Gold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. …
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Monday 31st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has …
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Friday 28th March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pa…
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Friday 28th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been h…
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Thursday 27th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also b…
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Wednesday 26th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations …
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Tuesday 25th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts…
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Monday 24th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were prematur…
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Friday 21st March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfe…
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Friday 21st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB One of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a resul…
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Thursday 20th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast for this year. But the dot plot has changed very little. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins …
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Wednesday 19th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Isr…
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Tuesday 18th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’…
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