Кращі подкасти про Global Guessing (2024)

1
A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott 37:16

2y ago37:16

37:16

In this podcast episode (recorded on 3/23/22) we spoke with Maxim Lott – the mind behind the Maximum Truth Substack and ElectionBettingOdds.com – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in Russia as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. As a former journalist for organizations like ABC and Fox, Maxim has deep experie…

1
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media 51:19

2y ago51:19

51:19

In this podcast episode, we sat down with Tom Chivers—author, journalist, and science writer for The i—to have a conversation on forecasting and the news media. We talked about his background in the media industry, his frustrations with mainstream news and its lack of nuance, his views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more. Tom p…

1
Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022 55:51

2y ago55:51

55:51

And we’re back! In this year’s first podcast, we are speaking with Tina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, a London-based advisory business. Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, incl…

1
✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited 39:18

2+ y ago39:18

39:18

When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Wildeford, a top-100 forecaster o…

1
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro 44:49

2+ y ago44:49

44:49

How should we understand the Omicron relative to Delta? How does Omicron change the nature of the pandemic and what steps should we be taking in response? These questions require navigating and quantifying uncertainty, while also making forecasts about the future. We could think of no one better than Juan Cambeiro for answers. Juan Cambeiro is a Gl…

1
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21) 1:09:38

2+ y ago1:09:38

1:09:38

It's hard to imagine, but 51 weeks ago we launched Global Guessing with our inaugural forecast on the 2020 Burkina Faso Presidential Election. In the time since, we've released 43 podcast episodes, 34 forecasts, and a new newsletter. In today's final (??) episode of the Weekly Podcast, we wanted to go over this incredible past year–discussing why w…

1
Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20) 57:06

2+ y ago57:06

57:06

Do consumers of geopolitical risk reports want accurate forecasts? You would think surely yes, but recurring listeners of our podcast know that in many cases individuals prefer vague verbiage over accountable, quantifiable forecasts. In this week's Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we wanted an answer, so we spoke with Manas Chawla, founder and CEO of…

1
David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19) 1:00:41

2+ y ago1:00:41

1:00:41

Welcome back to the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week we are joined by David McCullough, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and Good Judgement Inc. Prior to joining Good Judgement, David was an underwater Archaeologist for over twenty years after receiving his Ph.D. in Maritime Archeology from the University of G…

1
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18) 1:06:38

2+ y ago1:06:38

1:06:38

And we're back! Welcome everyone to the eighteenth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in f…

1
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17) 50:04

3y ago50:04

50:04

Career paths rarely unfold linearly, and this week's guest is no exception. But his winding way in geopolitics (as he discusses) provided him with exceptional perspective which has surely informed his geopolitical chops. In this week's episode we sat down with John Fowler of International Intrigue, a newsletter covering all things geopolitics and g…

1
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement 1:01:06

3y ago1:01:06

1:01:06

Since beginning Global Guessing, we have noted that interdisciplinary approaches to forecasting have often borne positive results. Whether guests have come from the world of finance, academics, or biology, their ‘outside views’ have frequently contributed to their forecasting accuracy. And our guest this week, Juan Cambeiro, is no different. In thi…

1
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16) 1:03:14

3y ago1:03:14

1:03:14

Every forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new paper was published alongside forecasting pioneers Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers that does a …

1
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus 1:02:34

3y ago1:02:34

1:02:34

In episode 5 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay talks to Datscilly, the top-ranked forecaster on the Metaculus leaderboards, who only 18 months after first forecasting won nearly $50,000 in the IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 where he placed second. How did Datscilly improve his skills so quickly? What was his strategy for excelling in a c…

1
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15) 47:47

3y ago47:47

47:47

How do the biggest geopolitical risk firms approach forecasting? What’s the future of tensions between the United States and China? How hard is it to forecast far into the future? In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we sat down with Phillip Orchard of Geopolitical Futures to talk about all of these topics and more. For those who a…

1
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack 43:53

3y ago43:53

43:53

What do you get when you combine a veteran superforecaster with an experienced hacker and innovator? You get our guest for episode 4 of The Right Side of Maybe! This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and framew…

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An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14) 1:14:29

3y ago1:14:29

1:14:29

What is Metaculus' origin story? Who runs it now and what do they have planned for the future? How will Metaculus' role within the forecasting ecosystem shift as time goes on? These are all questions that any avid forecaster might be curious about, and today we were able to get some answers! In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we…

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A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13) 56:53

3y ago56:53

56:53

What’s been going on with Israel and Palestine since last Monday? How far along in the conflict are we? Is this flare-up between these two nations any different from past years? In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the c…

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Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12) 1:15:01

3y ago1:15:01

1:15:01

What can we expect to happen in Afghanistan after the United States withdraws its troops? What is going on in the Donbass? How likely is it that any country boycotts the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing? We answer all these questions and more in this episode. In Episode 12 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Michael Hilliard, host …

1
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11) 1:02:17

3y ago1:02:17

1:02:17

How do companies use forecasting? When will forecasting, as we practice it at Global Guessing, become more common and mainstream? What tools can I use to forecast better? If you’re curious about the answers to any of these questions, then this episode is for you! In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Tom Lipta…

1
✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right 51:12

3y ago51:12

51:12

How does a world-renowned superforecaster compare to public health experts when forecasting the future of the pandemic? We spoke with one to find out. Tom Liptay is a PhD, CPA, investor, and superforecaster with Good Judgement Project. Amongst the top forecasters, he is among the top-ranked. Tom co-founded Maby, a platform that provides companies a…

1
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10) 41:09

3y ago41:09

41:09

What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right? Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of…

1
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines 59:46

3y ago59:46

59:46

In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim—a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, researcher, and public policy whiz—got this question right, beating a crowd of superforecasters and show…

1
Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8) 55:37

3y ago55:37

55:37

How do the best forecasters update their beliefs? Do markets or prediction polls elicit the best forecasts? In this week’s episode of GGWP, Pavel Atanasov answers these questions and discusses his postdoc experience at Good Judgement under Phillip Tetlock and Barb Mellers. We also talked to Pavel on the strengths and weakness of machine forecasting…

1
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7) 1:09:18

3y ago1:09:18

1:09:18

In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven…

1
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6) 1:24:14

3y ago1:24:14

1:24:14

In the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of the assumptions made by some of Rootclaim's more controversial analyses including in their Syria chem…

1
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5) 46:36

3y ago46:36

46:36

We review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. We also talk about what’s in store next for Global Guessing! Let us know on Twitter, Fac…

1
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2) 53:55

3y ago53:55

53:55

Clay and Andrew are flying solo...or rather duo. In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chat about the most pressing news from this week in geopolitics. Then we discuss our latest Metaculus Monday article regarding normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations before doing a live prediction on Metaculus! We also cover The Good Judgem…

1
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4) 1:03:41

3y ago1:03:41

1:03:41

Ross, founder of AR Global Security, a brand dedicated to providing news and analysis about the global security landscape, joins us this week. We discussed how the rise of cyberspace will change the future of statehood, discuss the implications of China's push for an Arctic Silk Road and what the Russia-China joint moon base means for their future …

1
Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3) 1:03:24

3y ago1:03:24

1:03:24

Andrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting we…

1
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1) 49:10

3y ago49:10

49:10

For the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorpor…

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1
Global Guessing Podcasts

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1
A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott 37:16

1
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media 51:19

1
Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022 55:51

1
✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited 39:18

1
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro 44:49

1
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21) 1:09:38

1
Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20) 57:06

1
David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19) 1:00:41

1
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18) 1:06:38

1
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17) 50:04

1
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement 1:01:06

1
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16) 1:03:14

1
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus 1:02:34

1
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15) 47:47

1
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack 43:53

1
An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14) 1:14:29

1
A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13) 56:53

1
Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12) 1:15:01

1
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11) 1:02:17

1
✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right 51:12

1
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10) 41:09

1
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines 59:46

1
Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8) 55:37

1
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7) 1:09:18

1
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6) 1:24:14

1
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5) 46:36

1
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2) 53:55

1
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4) 1:03:41

1
Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3) 1:03:24

1
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1) 49:10

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