The stock market has seen two consecutive years of 20% returns.Will it see similar returns this year?Highly unlikely, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Complacent bulls hoping for a repeat performance may well find themselves disappointed with 2025.We discuss the reasons why, the latest market technicals, the potential impact of domestic ter…

As we begin a new year, I thought it appropriate to continue Thoughtful Money's ongoing commitment to highlighting the principles components of true wealth -- of which money is simply a means, not the end in itself.Research tells us that true wealth is primarily a function of quality relationships, purpose & health.And today, we're going to drill d…

Today we have the good fortune to hear *another* housing analyst's 2025 outlook for home prices.We're joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app.Nick points out that buying a home has rarely been this expensive in living American history: once was in 1981 when mortgage rates were a whopping 18%. The o…

While 2024 was a fantastic year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well.Instead, 2024 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines as inventory surges.Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices st…

The world is in love with US stocks right now.Valuations are at or near all-time record highs. Same with measures of euphoria and investor confidence in stocks.US stocks have never made up as a great a percentage of global market cap as they do now.Retail investors (including seniors!) have never been this long stocks.As portfolio manager Lance Rob…

Today, we're going to do something a little different on this channel.We're going to interview a highly successful private equity CEO, and yes we'll get his economic & market outlook for 2025. But, we'll also delve into his insights for achieving personal success, in life and business.Graham Weaver is the founder and managing partner of Alpine Inve…

The Fed sent a shock through markets last week when it announced that fewer rates cuts may be needed to reach its policy goals.The S&P immediately sold off by -3% and the Nasdaq and Russell sold off even harder.It this just a curveball that, once digested, won't a matter much to the bull trend?Or, could it have set up a reversal in trend?To discuss…

Well, this interview is being recorded the day after the Federal Reserve spooked markets by slowing the expected pace of future rate cuts.The S&P instantly dropped 3% on the news and bond yields spiked.Is this just temporary heartburn as the markets digest the news?Or might this signal that markets have just peaked?For perspective, we're fortunate …

The Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected.Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked.Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder:Is a Santa Claus rally still likely?Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now?Portfolio manager Lance Robe…

Today's guest expert is the second this week to warn that US financial asset prices appear to be in bubble territory.Is that truly the case?And if so, will the bubble burst in 2025? Or inflate further?Investors have much riding on the answer.To discuss, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected mar…

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers.

As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly.Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs.Positive sentiment -- be it among investors, businesses or consumers -- is suddenly spiking.Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market's good times to continue rolling in 2025?Or, is the optimism overlooking risks -- both valu…

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital alloca…

Stocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds.Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur?Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction ri…

As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street.Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising.But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a…

As 2024 begins to draw to a close, investors are cheering a second blockbuster year in the stock market.And as we enter 2025, will the party continue? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year?Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable, or even a more painful year for investors?I can't thi…

As we head into a new year, there are a lot of questions swirling about money:Will the dollar's strength vs other world currencies continue into 2025?And even if so, will it continue to lose purchasing power vs real things?Will gold continue to be aggressively purchased by the world's central banks? By investors?Is Bitcoin "winning" the store of va…

Stocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!)While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback.We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicato…

Stocks are on track to end 2024 on a high note.The S&P is up roughly 27% so far, hitting new record highs all throughout the year.Will the party continue into the New Year?Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable one for investors?To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.He maintai…

Asset prices bubbles follow a predictable trajectory, driven by investor psychology.The final stage before the bursting is a Euphoric peak. The financial advisors at New Harbor Financial think we're on our way to such a blow-off top, but we're not quite there yet. They expect the action to get even more manic before we do.If Euphoria indeed arrives…

By many measures, stocks are richly valued.And by measures like the Buffett Indicator, they're the most overvalued they've EVER been.Does that strongly suggest a downwards market correction lies in store for 2025?Or is there a good reason that "this time is truly different" and a new bull era for stocks awaits?To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome…

Credit spreads are about the tightest they've ever been in history. High yield (aka "junk") debt is priced at very low premium to US Treasury debt, the safest asset in the world That says the bond market is just not worried about risk.So either, "everything truly is awesome"...or the market is mis-pricing risk here, perhaps dangerously so.Whether o…

The last time today's expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment.Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over?To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current r…

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comWell, America has a new President-Elect with a very different economic plan than the departing administration's.What new policies should we expect when Donald Trump returns to the White House?And what r…

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE YEAR END PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comAt the end of every year, there’s a list of prudent steps to consider that can make a big positive difference to your financial prospects — but only if you take them before January 1st arrives.If 2024 was a good year to…

While stocks have been choppy the 20 Day Moving Average has been acting as solid support. If it indeed holds and stocks rebound, the rising uptrend will remain intact and S&P 6200 becomes a real possibility by the end of December.That would indeed make for a jolly "Santa Claus rally".Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this ha…

The markets are locked in a battle of dangerous extremes vs high complacency.Yes, there are many reasons to be concerned about today's record high valuations.But those concerns haven't mattered yet.And there's no guarantee they will on any relevant time frame to today's investors.And so the party in stocks continues on...for now.In today's intervie…

Well, the Fed has now cut its benchmark interest rate 75 basis points, and yet mortgage rates have RISEN -- back up near 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage.This has NOT been good news for the housing market, which has been frozen transaction-wise at record levels of unaffordability for the majority of aspiring purchasers.It's been often aske…

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism.That has proven to be the case worldwide, and particularly so for the US, where Donald Trump has just regained the Presidency with a clear mandate to pursue an "America F…

In this week's Weekly Market Recap portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I talk about the round-trip the stock market has made since the Election.Is the rally likely to resume? Or was the exuberance short-lived?We also talk bonds, the recent inflation numbers, Lance's recent trades, and the wisdom of conducting year-end planning on your portfolio bef…

Well, the election is over and we have a clear victor.What kind of economy is President-elect Trump inheriting? And what impact on it are his policies likely to have?And what does this mean for investors? Where do the opportunities, as well as the risks, lie?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined again by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief …

The markets continue to surge to all-time record highs, driven in no small part by expectations of a massive productivity boom enabled by artificial intelligence, otherwise known as AICorporate America and Wall Street are clearly shrugging off the warnings that science fiction gave us about AI taking command of the world's technology to eradicate h…

Today's guest expert wrote in her latest newsletter:"This month, animal spirits surged on bets that artificial intelligence and central bank rate cuts can solve the problem of spreading insolvency."She is highly dubious that they can.And if indeed they cannot, what then lies ahead for the economy, for the markets, and for investors?To find out we'l…

Stocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week.Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts.This week al…

What impact (if any) will the Trump victory have on Federal Reserve policy?Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers.

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here.And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressm…

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in July, he shared that he had just closed out all his longs and moved to cash.That moved paid off, as the S&P fell over 300 points in the following few weeks.Stocks rebounded after the sell-off and have powered higher up to today, now back near all-time highs.So what does his Technic…

In this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades.WORRIED …

The stock market has hit another all-time high this week, and Wall Street's profits for 2024 are off the charts -- nearly TWICE as high as last year's.Meanwhile, the wealth divide in America continues to widen as average folks struggle with the post-COVID surge in cost of living and record high interest rates on their debt.What does this growing di…

We've had two excellent years of returns in the stock market. Can that winning streak continue into 2025?And in less than a week, we should know who the next President of the United States is. How should investors alter their position based on who the winner is.For answers, we're going to find out how the big players -- those managing tens of billi…

We find ourselves in a time of transition, one that may increasingly be later described as upheaval.In a week, we'll have a new US President, which will bring change both to the US and to geopolitics.We already have a new interest rate regime as the world's major central banks have pivoted back to cutting rates.And we may be seeing the start of a n…

It's certainly an interesting time in the markets.The world's major central banks have returned to cutting interest rates. Yet bond yields are rising on the long end.Meanwhile, risk on assets are in rally mode. Stocks are back at all-time highs.Yet so is gold, the grand-daddy of risk off assets.To make sense of all of this, we're fortunate to speak…

The S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks.That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often.And...it ended yesterday.Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts …

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, she made the somewhat heretical prediction that when the Fed started cutting interest rates, it would set off a chain of events that were likely to prove more restrictive than its tightening policy.Well, here we are 6 months later, and the Fed has indeed started cutting interest rates and yet…

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceWell, the Fall Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insi…

Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election. Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue.Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic,…

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered.All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking …

When today's guest was on this channel back in March, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead.Well, here in the fina…

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comBanking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and …

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year.Well, as we prepare to enter 2025, and with it a new US presidential administration I might add, it helps to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful.High on…